Capital Ethiopia Newspaper

Dear oil & Peak oil

As our regular readers can testify, we abhor small talk and shallow analysis. Pseudo and petty analysis of the sorts we are bombarded with by paid media turn us off completely, as they insult our little intelligence. We will start by deciphering a regular manipulative technique that is used by the propaganda machine of crony capitalism.
In the business news (Bloomberg, et al), we continuously hear comments such as; ‘Gas price continues to rise ‘as’ stockpile declines.’ Or, ‘oil price is going up ‘as’ dollar inflates.’ These statements sound reasonable, even though the connections between the two segments of each sentence have not been credibly established. For that to happen, ‘as’ must be replaced by the causative conjunction ‘because’. But that is precisely what is not intended. The very intention here is to insinuate credibility without the hand being forced. The conjunction ‘as’ is only concatenating the independent and stand alone phrases in the above two sentences. It is the same as saying; ‘we went to sleep as the sun set in’ or ‘we went to work as the sun set in.’ Ordinarily, such concatenations are hardly used, since they neither hide nor reveal. But once we are sufficiently conditioned (like Pavlov’s dog) to unwarrantedly conceive ‘as’ as ‘because’, the propagandists can get away with murder, literally! And before long we will buy into such gibberish as; ‘oil prices are going up ‘as’ Angelina Jolie’s hemline recedes.’ Or ‘gold price is going down ‘as’ a famous porn star shows up for a photo shoot without gold jewelry on her private parts! Welcome to the 21st century Orwellian Newspeak!  
Some things are far too important to be left to the shallow analysis of establishment analysts-the talking not the thinking heads! Fossil fuel is one of them. Unlike the chattering idiots of the business media, the spooks are usually on top of things, at least when it comes to the diagnosis of non-human issues. See the article next column. So let us cut the crap of the business establishment and get on with hard analysis based on facts. To start with, the easily accessible oil, at least 80% of it is already discovered and depleting faster than the Euros in Greek banks. Moreover, it is only now excluded humanity, which comprises some 80% of the global population, started to base its collective existence on fossil energy! As a result, consumption is on the rise while production is on the decline. Something has to yield. 
If the scenario about fossil fuel is such, then why are we wasting precious time and resources trying to build a fossil energy existence/civilization, at this late stage in the game? Exactly our point! Some of the global states with foresight and commitment are actually working hard to create a non-fossil energy future. Amongst the developed countries, the Nordics and particularly Germany stand out. For example some have already eliminated the seemingly easy but dangerous choices, like nuclear power.  In the developing countries, where there still are governments dedicated enough to have plans that go beyond the next election, there are also genuine efforts in the offing. China is now at the forefront of the new science/engineering of renewable. Ethiopia’s push for hydro, we believe, is commendable. Unfortunately, many of the other states have opted to stick to the strategy diligently learned from the Ostrich; bury your head in the sand and hope for the best. We believe this is contemptible!
The Gulf and the Caspian Sea regions have the largest deposit of proven and easily accessible fossil energy in the world. As a result, the individual countries of the region had to tread global petro-politics carefully, lest they antagonize the powerful. For example, besides the various real/fundamental issues associated with physical oil, the business of oil per se, compliment of financialization (derivatives; such as options, etc) has been systematically influencing global oil prices. Moreover it is now revealed the oil kingdoms have been exaggerating their reserves, immodestly. In the case of the Saudis, the reserve was hyped up by 40%! See the articles on page 50. No wonder, they try to invest their oil revenues left, right and center on all and sundry, at times not so profitably (GM, Citibank, etc) and amicably (land grabbing in Africa.)
Our conclusion is very simple and straightforward. Humanity is facing unpredictable and difficult future as a result of diminishing fossil fuel and increasing environmental destabilization. Unless we embark on a concerted global effort to bring back balance and sustainability to our lives, we might not have a future to look forward to. We cannot help but agree with the old philosopher: “He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils, for time is the greatest innovator.”Francis Bacon. Good Day!