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Average year on year inflation is 18 percent in Addis Ababa, according to research by Access Capital and Horizon Ethiopia.
The estimate was made after surveying 184 commodities and services compiled under nine broad categories and stands close to the estimate of the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) made for July 2012 which estimated the inflation rate at 19 percent.
However, in what may be a manner of more concern, food price trends are 32 percent higher in the city than the 25 percent year-on-year food inflation reported by the CSA during this period.
Based on information given by retailers and businesses for the third quarter of 2012, which ends next month, prices are expected to continue to rise for 42 out of 184 commodities and services surveyed.
This survey, based on the third quarter of 2012, translated into an expected annual inflation rate of just 10 percent, making it slightly lower than Access Capital’s projections of 12 percent year-on-year inflation for end of 2012 and more importantly an anticipated inflation rate in the low teens for the most part of next year.
The latest price data showcased double-digit year-on-year price increases for more than half of surveyed goods and services.
Construction machine rentals like bull dozers and excavators and produce like onions and bananas rose greatly.
The report further highlighted that while staple food ingredients like onions prices should remain steady while Ethiopia’s staple crop Teff will show a small decline of six percent.
Petroleum related products like Benzene, Diesel Oil and Kerosene declined during July 2012 at rates of ten, five and one percent respectively.
Generally inflation expectations for edible domestic animals are expected to rise sharply from 20 to 50 percent. Cooking oil is expected to hold steady.
The inflation rate for one of the most crucial aspects of Ethiopian economy, urban land lease prices are expected to be constant during the third quarter of 2012.
Yet, 37 percent of the 184 commodities and services covered under the survey were revealed to have had a year on year price decline. Construction and building materials like cement and reinforcement bars are among prominent examples.
The Ministry of Industry had suspended licenses for new cement projects in the 2011/12 fiscal year because they wanted to ensure the quality of cement and there were many construction projects occurring at the time.