President William Ruto of Kenya recently introduced a series of fiscal reforms aimed at increasing the nation’s revenue to tackle its growing fiscal challenges. These reforms, encapsulated in a Finance Bill proposing a new tax regime, have sparked significant unrest throughout the country. The proposed Bill has been dropped, primarily due to the nationwide protests it triggered, which threatened the stability of both the country and the government.
Kenya is grappling with a daunting debt burden of $80 billion, which necessitates using more than half of its annual tax revenue for debt servicing. In response, the administration proposed increasing the Value Added Tax (VAT) to 16%, a move that would have spiked the costs of essential commodities like bread and sugar. Additionally, the fiscal proposal included hikes in excise duty on vegetable oil, a 2.5% motor vehicle tax, and an eco-levy on locally manufactured goods such as sanitary pads.
The youth, already burdened by joblessness, hunger, and a high cost of living, viewed these fiscal measures as draconian and unacceptable. The government’s initial response was repression, marked by arrests and killings by the military and police. However, these actions failed to suppress the protesters. Ultimately, President Ruto had to concede, demonstrating that in a democratic society, the will of the people should not be disregarded.
The national unrest was further fueled by the perception that the proposed policy regime was driven by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF had advised Kenya to double its revenue to address the country’s debt crisis. However, across Nairobi, Mombasa, and other cities, thousands protested against the excessive taxation that they believed would cripple already struggling businesses.
The ferocity of the resistance caught not only the President but also the Parliament by surprise. The Parliament building was invaded, its mace stolen, and part of the building torched. Hungry protesters even helped themselves to food at the parliament’s cafeteria.
As President Ruto capitulated, he reminded Kenyans of the consequences of their resistance: the need to secure a $7.6 billion foreign loan to run the government. This loan represents a 67% increase over what would have been needed if the new fiscal measures had been implemented.
The protests exacted a heavy toll. According to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, 39 people were killed, 362 were injured, and 627 were arrested. The economic impact was also significant, with vandalized legislature needing repairs and businesses looted.
Ruto now faces the Alex de Tocqueville effect, where a bad government faces its worst time when it begins to reform or make concessions. His capitulation has emboldened the protesters, who now demand his immediate resignation. The Inspector of Police, Japhet Koome, has already resigned, unable to withstand the public outrage over police brutality.
The protesters’ demands include a proper audit of the national debt, slashing lawmakers’ salaries, scrapping the Office of the First Lady, obeying court orders, cutting the Executive and Legislature’s budgets, and increasing funding for education and health. They also demand an end to state capture of the judiciary, better salaries for teachers and doctors, and the removal of government officials with criminal records or integrity issues. In response, Ruto dissolved his cabinet, retaining only the Foreign Affairs Minister.
There are valuable lessons for Ethiopia in Kenya’s turmoil. In Ethiopia, discontent is simmering over hunger, rising living costs, inflation, and joblessness, coupled with insecurity. Instead of resorting to violence, Ethiopian youths can advance their cause by participating actively in politics. They should join political parties and seek democratic accountability from within, as their peers in Western democracies do.
Political parties can be platforms for evolving candidates who share the youths’ aspirations. By participating in elections and voting en masse, Ethiopian youths can make a significant impact. This strategy has seen success in recent elections in the UK and France. For instance, in the UK Parliament, 22-year-old Sam Carling was elected on the Labour Party platform. He defeated an incumbent, proving that age does not necessarily confer competence.
Kenya’s experience underscores the power of popular resistance and the importance of democratic engagement. Ethiopian youths should take heed, using their collective strength to demand better governance and accountability.
