A groundbreaking report from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) reveals alarming trends in global aridity, indicating that over three-quarters of the world’s land has become permanently drier in recent decades. The report, titled “The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and Global Aridity Trends and Future Projections,” emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to combat the escalating impacts of aridity on ecosystems and human communities.
The report outlines that more than 40% of the planet’s land area is now classified as drylands, an expansion of approximately 4.3 million square kilometers—an area roughly half the size of Australia. This shift has significant implications for food security, biodiversity, and overall ecosystem health. The findings indicate that if current greenhouse gas emissions trends continue, an additional 3% of the world’s humid areas could transform into drylands by the end of this century.
Currently, around 2.3 billion people, or more than a quarter of the global population, live in drylands. Projections suggest that this number could rise to as many as 5 billion by 2100 if climate change continues unchecked.
The report highlights the multifaceted impacts of rising aridity, which include increased land degradation, water scarcity, and heightened risks of desertification. These changes are linked to severe consequences such as poor soil fertility, crop losses, declines in biodiversity, and greater frequency of sand and dust storms. Additionally, the health implications are dire, with aridity-related water scarcity contributing to illness and death while also driving large-scale forced migration.
UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw emphasized the importance of understanding aridity as a critical environmental challenge that requires immediate action. The report advocates for a shift in focus from short-term drought responses to long-term adaptation strategies that address the underlying causes of rising aridity.
To effectively combat these challenges, the report recommends adopting a widely accepted climatic approach based on the Aridity Index (AI), which measures aridity using the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration over extended periods. This approach will help distinguish between temporary drought conditions and long-term arid climates.
