A mixed picture emerges from Sub-Saharan Africa in the latest Global Terrorism Index (GTI), even as the report highlights a concerning global increase in terrorist activity. While the Sahel region remains a global epicenter of terrorism, deaths in other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa have declined, offering a glimmer of hope amid broader challenges.
The 12th annual GTI, released today by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), reveals that the number of countries recording a terrorist attack increased from 58 to 66 worldwide, reversing nearly a decade of improvements. However, within Sub-Saharan Africa, trends are diverse.
The Sahel region continues to bear the brunt of terrorist violence, accounting for over half of all global terrorism deaths in 2024. Burkina Faso, despite showing signs of overall improvement, remains the most affected nation for the second consecutive year, responsible for one-fifth of all terrorism deaths globally. Six of the ten countries in the Sahel region recorded at least one fatality, highlighting the persistent threat.
Weak governance, ethnic tensions, and ecological degradation create a fertile ground for terrorist groups to flourish in the Sahel. Competition over the region’s mineral resources, particularly gold in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, further exacerbates instability. The shifting geopolitical landscape, marked by a growing Russian presence and the withdrawal of France, adds complexity to the region’s security dynamics.
The situation in Niger illustrates the fragility of progress. After achieving the second-largest improvement in the GTI in 2022, the country experienced a significant reversal, recording a 94% increase in terrorism deaths in 2024, reaching 930 fatalities – the largest surge globally.
In contrast to the dire situation in the Sahel, other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding the Sahel) witnessed a decline in terrorism-related deaths. These deaths are now at their lowest since 2016, dropping by 10%. This suggests that counter-terrorism efforts in some regions are yielding positive results, although the overall threat remains significant.
Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of IEP, noted that “98% of all terrorist deaths occurred in conflict zones, with 2024 recording the highest number of conflicts since the end of WWII.” He emphasized the need to address the root causes of conflict to effectively control terrorism.
The GTI underscores the need for a nuanced approach to counter-terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa. While sustained efforts are needed to combat the escalating threat in the Sahel, it is crucial to consolidate the gains made in other regions.
