Sunday, December 7, 2025

Inflation, currency weakness drive unprecedented surge in gold prices

By Eyasu Zekarias

The price of 24-karat gold in Ethiopia has surged to an unprecedented level, approaching 29,900 birr (ETB) per gram including taxes—around $200—marking a historic high in the country. This sharp increase highlights the growing inflationary pressures and the weakening of the local currency, which are testing the resilience of Ethiopia’s economy.

Data obtained by Capital shows that the base price of gold is about 26,000 birr per gram, though some market data suggest the base price may be closer to 25,000 birr while the actual retail value reaches nearly 28,750 birr. Traders report that gold can be purchased without taxes, but this option risks reducing government revenue.

Economists attribute the rapid price rise, which has seen increases of between 2,000 and 3,000 birr in just a few weeks, to a combination of global gold market volatility and the country’s worsening inflation scenario. The surge is causing concern within Ethiopia’s jewelry industry and among gold buyers, with experts cautioning that price fluctuations are likely to persist.

“Gold’s sharp price increase to around 25,000 birr per gram reflects the dual impact of rising international demand and the weakening national currency,” said an economist. He added that while gold prices appear to have almost doubled, much of the increase stems not only from global market dynamics but also from the decline in purchasing power caused by inflation and currency depreciation.

This situation poses challenges for Ethiopian savers. “This serves as a reminder that holding physical gold alone may not be sufficient to preserve wealth,” the economist noted. “There is a pressing need for reliable and flexible financial systems that offer safer options to safeguard assets.”

The surge in gold prices closely mirrors the turmoil in Ethiopia’s foreign exchange market. As of October 24, 2025, the official exchange rate issued by the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) stood at 150.963 birr per U.S. dollar. However, the black market rate surged to 180 birr per dollar mid-month, widening the gap by approximately 20%.

This divergence followed the NBE’s recent foreign exchange auction and indicates that government efforts to stabilize the currency and reduce disparities between official and parallel market rates have had limited success. As a result, prices of internationally priced commodities like gold have soared when expressed in local currency.

Meanwhile, the official gold price set by the NBE is lagging behind retail market levels, signaling growing market discrepancies. On October 24, 2025, the NBE’s official gold price was 19,960.21 birr per gram, slightly down from 20,364.40 birr a week earlier, and substantially below the retail market price nearing 30,000 birr.

For comparison, the price of 24-karat gold in Dubai, a major global trading hub, stood at approximately 486.71 United Arab Emirates dirham (AED) per gram on the same date.

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