Ethiopia stands at a critical juncture. To the casual observer, the nation’s challenges appear as a series of disjointed security crises or resource disputes. However, for the astute investor and the economic analyst, the root cause is far more systemic. We are witnessing a profound “battle of ideas” – a clash of historically constructed narratives that is acting as the ultimate market disruptor.
For the business community, the current political fragmentation is not merely a social grievance; it is an economic bottleneck that stifles Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), creates volatility in the foreign exchange market, and hampers the logistics chains essential for trade. As we navigate this uncertainty, the National Dialogue Commission (NDC) emerges not just as a political necessity, but as a critical infrastructure project for the nation’s economic survival.
The Economics of Polarisation
The source of our paralysis is a deep-seated elite polarisation, fuelled by two irreconcilable historical brands. One narrative sells Ethiopia as the ‘Cradle of Civilisation’ – a unified, ancient state. The competing narrative markets the nation as a ‘Prison of Nations’ – an oppressive empire requiring ethnic liberation. This clash drives the fragmentation of our national elite, fracturing the communication networks required for a functional state and a cohesive market.
The economic cost of this divide is quantifiable. Our political landscape is dominated by parties organised almost exclusively along ethnic lines. When over 95% of regional parties operate as centrifugal forces, political capital is spent on identity politics rather than programmatic economic policy.
For the private sector, this is disastrous. Instead of debating fiscal policy, industrialisation strategies, or liberalisation measures, the political discourse is consumed by a zero-sum struggle for group-specific benefits. This creates an unpredictable regulatory environment where long-term business planning becomes an exercise in futility. When politics is weaponised as an ‘ethnic security dilemma,’ capital – which is notoriously cowardly – flees to safer harbours.
Dialogue as Risk Mitigation
In a marketplace of non-negotiable identity claims, conventional majoritarian politics fails. It leads to a cycle of conflict that drains the exchequer and destroys infrastructure. In this context, the NDC must be viewed by the business community as a mechanism for risk mitigation.
The dialogue process is effectively a restructuring of the national merger. It offers an arena where these contested narratives can be audited and renegotiated. The goal is to move beyond the binary of ‘Cradle’ vs. ‘Prison’ to co-create a shared national story. For the economy, a shared narrative translates into a unified market, predictable rule of law, and the social trust necessary for credit and contract enforcement. Without this “soft infrastructure” of shared understanding, no amount of physical infrastructure can guarantee stability.
The NDC: An Imperfect Vessel for Necessary Change
The establishment of the NDC is a formal recognition that military solutions cannot solve market failures caused by social fractures. It is designed to mediate the polarised discourses that currently make Ethiopia a “high-risk” investment destination.
However, like any major venture, the NDC faces a crisis of confidence. There is a palpable trust deficit among key stakeholders – from opposition figures to civic nationalists. Concerns regarding the Commission’s independence and the timing of the dialogue amidst active conflict are valid. The perception that the NDC might be a closed loop for the ruling Prosperity Party to “dialogue with itself” threatens to render the process insolvent before it begins.
For the NDC to yield a return on investment, it must demonstrate radical independence. It must be willing to tackle the “legacy liabilities” of the state, including constitutional disputes and territorial claims. It must ensure that the process is inclusive, bringing in voices from conflict-affected regions. If the NDC is perceived as a partisan instrument, it will fail to stabilise the market, leading to further entrenchment of divisions and continued economic stagnation.
The Private Sector’s Responsibility
Here lies the imperative for the Ethiopian private sector. Business leaders, investors, and chambers of commerce can no longer afford to view the National Dialogue as a purely political event occurring in a vacuum. It is the prerequisite for the resumption of normal commerce.
Indifference is a luxury we cannot afford. To withhold support for the NDC is to tacitly endorse a status quo characterised by violence, displacement, and anemic growth. Rational economic self-interest demands that we pursue solutions through discourse. The NDC, despite its flaws, is the only institutional alternative to the battlefield.
Therefore, the private sector must become an active shareholder in this process. We must advocate for the Commission’s inclusivity and hold it to the highest standards of impartiality. We must contribute to the agenda, ensuring that economic integration and resource sharing are part of the national conversation.
The Peace Dividend
We are at a fork in the road. One path leads to a renegotiated social contract, where political contests are settled by ballots and debate, creating the stability required for tourism to rebound, manufacturing to expand, and wealth to be created. This is the path of the National Dialogue.
The alternative is a continued descent into a fragmented polity, where the “narrative wars” are fought with kinetic weapons, destroying human capital and physical assets alike.
Supporting the NDC is an investment in the ultimate public good: peace. It is the vessel through which we can secure a predictable, prosperous future. For the sake of our balance sheets and, more importantly, our future generations, the business community must lend its full weight to ensuring this dialogue succeeds. The cost of failure is simply too high to bear.
Tadesse Biru Kersmo is Interdisciplinary Doctoral Degree in Social Sciences and can be reached via tkersmo@yahoo.com
