Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Africa fell by about one-third in 2025, even as global FDI rose 14 percent to an estimated USD 1.6 trillion, according to a new UNCTAD Global Investment Trends Monitor released in January 2026. The report warns that lower‑income economies, including most of Africa, are being left behind as capital concentrates in data centres, semiconductors and rich‑country financial hubs.
UNCTAD estimates that FDI to Africa dropped from USD 96 billion in 2024 to about USD 59 billion in 2025, reversing the previous year’s spike that had been boosted by a single large transaction. While global flows to developed economies surged 43 percent and high‑income economies saw a 22 percent rise, developing economies overall recorded a 2 percent decline, with Africa among the hardest hit.
Egypt remained the continent’s top FDI destination with inflows of around USD 11 billion, while Angola moved back into positive territory at roughly USD 3 billion after nine years of net divestment. Mozambique’s inflows jumped 80 percent to USD 6 billion as work resumed on major LNG projects, but these gains were not enough to offset sharp declines elsewhere on the continent.
Across Africa, announced greenfield projects – which indicate future investment – held up better than flows but were still fragile. The number of greenfield announcements ticked up 6 percent to 845 projects in 2025, yet international project finance deals, crucial for infrastructure, fell 7 percent in number.
UNCTAD notes that FDI to lower‑income countries worldwide fell 5 percent to USD 159 billion in 2025, underlining “persistent challenges” in accessing external finance, managing high risk perceptions and overcoming structural vulnerabilities. Africa, where most states fall into this category, is particularly exposed as FDI remains a critical source of long‑term capital for infrastructure and industrialisation.
Although Africa’s greenfield project count rose modestly, the value of such projects across lower‑income economies fell 30 percent to USD 189 billion, with most sectors registering lower investment except data centres, which saw a 44 percent increase. International project finance in lower‑income countries proved relatively resilient, with total value up 7 percent to USD 218 billion, but project numbers still declined.
Globally, UNCTAD identifies data centres and semiconductors as the standout winners of 2025, together reshaping the FDI landscape. Data centre greenfield projects alone attracted more than USD 270 billion – over one‑fifth of all announced investment – led by France, the United States and the Republic of Korea, with emerging markets such as Brazil, Thailand, India and Malaysia also among the top hosts.
By contrast, sectors that are central to Africa’s development agenda weakened. Greenfield investment in renewable energy fell 28 percent worldwide to USD 197 billion, while the value and number of international project finance deals in renewables dropped to their lowest levels in four years. Investment in extractives and critical minerals, where African countries had hoped to leverage resource endowments, also declined sharply, with project values down 36 percent and critical minerals projects down 63 percent compared to 2024.
Infrastructure‑related greenfield and project finance deals – spanning power, transport, telecoms and real estate – shrank 10 percent in number globally in 2025, although total value remained broadly flat due to a few mega‑deals. For Africa, where regional integration and industrial corridors depend on roads, ports, power and digital backbones, the continued slide in international project finance represents a structural risk.
UNCTAD highlights that international project finance is now at a five‑year low, while domestic sponsors have begun to fill some of the gap, especially in renewable energy, with a 58 percent increase in the number of domestically led deals and a 21 percent rise in value worldwide. However, most African countries lack the fiscal space and capital markets depth to replace foreign sponsors at scale.
Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD sees highly uncertain prospects. A further rise in global FDI is possible as borrowing costs ease and mergers and acquisitions accelerate, but the agency warns that geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts and policy fragmentation will likely keep real project activity subdued.
Any growth in flows, it argues, will probably be driven by a handful of mega‑transactions and conduit flows through financial centres, with capital increasingly concentrated in strategic sectors like data centres and AI‑related semiconductors rather than broad‑based industrial or infrastructure projects in poorer regions.
For Africa, the numbers underscore a widening investment divide: as capital races into digital infrastructure and advanced manufacturing in rich and emerging hubs, the continent risks being further sidelined unless it can attract and structure deals that link its energy transition, resource base and large young market to these new global investment priorities.
