Africa’s aviation sector posted strong growth in February 2026, with both passenger and cargo demand rising sharply, even as the war in the Middle East threatened to push up fuel costs, squeeze capacity and disrupt trade flows across the continent.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air passenger demand rose 6.1 per cent year-on-year in February, while African airlines recorded 4.8 per cent growth in international passenger demand and 21.0 per cent growth in air cargo demand. IATA said the gains reflected broad resilience in global travel and freight, but warned that the conflict in the Middle East was already affecting airline costs and route planning.
For Africa, the passenger picture was mixed. The continent’s airlines increased capacity by 6.6 per cent, outpacing demand and pushing the load factor down to 74.5 per cent from 75.8 per cent a year earlier. That suggests seats were added faster than travellers returned, even though traffic still expanded.
Cargo was the brighter story. African airlines led all regions in February cargo growth, with demand up 21.0 per cent and capacity rising 17.3 per cent, according to IATA. Trade lanes linking Africa and Asia were especially strong, rising 61.9 per cent and extending a run of growth that has now lasted eight consecutive months.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said February’s figures showed strong underlying demand, but he warned that the Middle East war is making it difficult to judge the rest of the year. Fuel costs have risen sharply, he said, and airlines are already adjusting capacity, particularly on routes to, from or through the Middle East.
The regional breakdown shows Africa performing below some fast-growing markets but still holding up in a difficult global environment. In passenger transport, Latin America posted the strongest international demand growth at 13.5 per cent, followed by Asia-Pacific at 8.6 per cent, while Africa’s international demand rose 4.8 per cent. In cargo, Africa’s 21.0 per cent increase outpaced the Middle East’s 16.5 per cent and Asia-Pacific’s 13.6 per cent, making it the strongest regional performer.
The broader implications for Africa are significant. Aviation is a key enabler of trade, tourism and business travel on a continent where many economies depend heavily on imports and long-haul connectivity. Rising air cargo demand could support exporters moving time-sensitive goods such as flowers, fresh produce, pharmaceuticals and high-value manufactured products.
But the same report makes clear that the industry faces headwinds. IATA said capacity growth scheduled for March had already eased to 3.3 per cent from earlier forecasts of more than 5 per cent because of fuel costs and uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. That suggests airlines may become more cautious in the weeks ahead, especially on routes exposed to higher operating costs.
For Africa, the February numbers therefore carry two messages. First, demand for air travel and cargo remains resilient. Second, the external shocks that have repeatedly affected global trade and transport are once again testing the continent’s aviation industry, making supply chain stability and fuel security more important than ever.
