Ethiopia’s agricultural sector is navigating a complex paradox of record-breaking production and severe market strain. According to the latest Grain and Feed Annual report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, while the nation is on track for a historic wheat harvest, structural economic shifts and high domestic costs have left the country increasingly reliant on grain shipments from the Black Sea region to stabilize its volatile markets.
For the 2026/27 marketing year, Ethiopia’s wheat production is forecast at a record 7.0 million metric tons (MT), representing an eight percent increase over the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to the government’s National Wheat Flagship Program, which has aggressively expanded irrigated wheat cultivation in lowland areas.
The surge is further supported by the broader adoption of improved seed varieties and the continued development of “cluster farming” and mechanization, aiming to link smallholder and commercial producers directly to domestic millers.
