President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent visit to Ethiopia marks more than a routine diplomatic engagement. It signals a carefully structured expansion of Turkey’s economic footprint in the Horn of Africa, paired with a growing ambition to shape the region’s geopolitical balance.
At the commercial level, the visit delivered concrete outcomes. Energy cooperation agreements, commitments to expand bilateral trade, and renewed investment discussions underscore Ankara’s intent to deepen its role in Ethiopia’s industrial and infrastructure transformation. For Ethiopia, Turkish engagement presents tangible opportunities in renewable energy, manufacturing partnerships, construction, and logistics, sectors critical to the country’s long-term development strategy. Turkish firms have already established a significant presence in Ethiopia; this latest round of agreements strengthens that trajectory.
Yet the visit was not confined to trade and investment. It unfolded amid heightened regional tensions, particularly around questions of sovereignty, maritime access, and shifting alliances in the Red Sea corridor. In this context, Erdoğan’s clear statement that disputes in the Horn should be resolved through negotiation rather than military means carries strategic weight. His emphasis on dialogue and territorial integrity reflects Turkey’s positioning not merely as an economic partner, but as a mediator seeking influence over the region’s diplomatic architecture.
This dual-track approach, economic engagement coupled with geopolitical mediation, is not accidental. Turkey has steadily expanded its presence across the Horn over the past decade, combining infrastructure projects, security cooperation, and diplomatic outreach. The result is a model of influence where trade agreements and investment flows operate alongside political leverage.
For African policymakers and business leaders, the implications are significant. Turkey’s expanding economic role offers access to capital, technology, and diversified partnerships at a time when global supply chains are realigning. However, economic cooperation must be carefully structured to ensure that domestic industries benefit, local enterprises are integrated into value chains, and strategic autonomy is preserved.
The Horn of Africa sits at a critical intersection of global trade routes. Stability in the region is not simply a political objective, it is an economic necessity. Cross-border commerce, infrastructure development, and AfCFTA implementation all depend on predictability and peace. Erdoğan’s call for negotiation over confrontation aligns with the business community’s fundamental interest: stability as the foundation of growth.
The key question, therefore, is not whether Turkey should play a larger role in the Horn, but how that role is shaped. If Ankara’s engagement strengthens regional integration, supports industrialization, and reinforces peaceful dispute resolution, it will contribute positively to Africa’s economic ambitions. If, however, strategic competition overshadows cooperative development, the benefits may be diluted.
For Ethiopia and its neighbors, the challenge is to harness external partnerships, whether Turkish, Gulf, or otherwise, in ways that advance national development priorities while supporting regional cohesion. Economic diplomacy can be a powerful engine of progress. But it must be anchored in transparency, negotiation, and long-term vision.
In the Horn today, business and geopolitics are no longer separate spheres. They are intertwined. Turkey understands this well. The region’s leaders must ensure they do too.
