Prosperity Party won the 2021 election not on commendable track records but on a postdated check—a promise to deliver. Isn’t that what organized political groups do when they try to win elections? One may wonder. A legitimate question, but when an incumbent runs for reelection, it has already used up ‘the trust me’ card and has to have its track records of past performance audited and try to win reelection on the strength of its accomplishments.
Prosperity Party is a reformed EPRDF. Primarily, the Premier was elected by the Council of EPRDF as the Chief Executive and cleverly exploited the benefit of incumbency to make a false transition to PP, just like the Dergue had made a smooth transition from Provisional Military Council to People’s Democratic Republic.
That is why I contend that PP is answerable for all the wrongs of EPRDF as well as being heir to EPRDF’s accomplishments. In the event PP’s vocal disciples and propaganda networks forget it, we need to keep reminding them that PP’s leadership had owned up to, taken responsibility for, and apologized for the wrongs perpetrated by EPRDF. That was why we were like ‘ከይቅርታ በላይ ምን አለ?’ and vowed to give unconditional support to the Team. Otherwise, it has to withdraw its apology in public and suffer the consequences.
The thing is, having taken us for inconsequential simpletons, these days they have made a habit of prefacing official statements with the phrase ‘when we assumed power six years ago…’ Whatever happened to all the noble acts of apology extended to all Ethiopians on behalf of EPRDF six years ago? Please don’t go Judas on us in just half a decade; if you want to be told the unvarnished naked truth, know that you had assumed power back in May 1990! In spite of everything, do you know why we are fascinated by American democracy? The GOP of the second decade of the 21st century defends the records of Abraham Lincoln in the mid-19th century.
Within a year after Dr. Abiy’s government came to power, a panel discussion hosted and moderated by Arts TV, featuring the likes of the historian Abebaw Ayalew and the scholar Dr. Dagnachew, is a living testament to the blank check the Ethiopian public had signed to the incumbent government. The conclusion drawn by Ato Abebaw was put rather succinctly—we are worse off, but we will keep our trust alive. That was five years ago. I wish I could ask the historian, ‘Are you still living off that elusive promise, Sir?’
An idle hindsight reflection aside, Prosperity Party doesn’t have that blindly trusting naïve constituency anymore. The latter is betrayed and is being laughed at with cruel statements like ‘learn to eat with your eyes and not with your pitiless tummy.’ We would very much like to, but as the Azmaris had put it, ‘እንጀራ አዞረን እንጅ፡፡’ As an example of the kind of records PP is keeping, have you tried to read the possible award-winning feature story BBC Amharic ran a week ago regarding the destitute Ph.D. candidate? That was one great exhibition of professional journalism par excellence.
We aren’t any better off, but when we read the tragedy of scholarship as candidly and cruelly narrated by BBC Amharic, we quit everything we were doing and went out for a walk along one of the shiny PP Boulevards to ventilate the toxic bitterness building up in our systems. We knew we were treading on our sweat and blood as half our earnings had been drained into the project and the walking wouldn’t do the usual trick, so we had to retire back to our humble abode.
The story depicted institutional failures on multiple levels. Out of sheer decency, if I were an editor at BBC Amharic, I would have tried to tone down the bleak characterization of scholarship in the country. That is why I wouldn’t make a good editor. I mean, how could earning a Ph.D. become a testament of failure unless the very essence of scholarship in the country is fundamentally vitiated?
Election season is around the corner.
Two points I would like to make. First, there was no semblance of voter apathy in the 2021 election. Voter turnout was incredible. Secondly, I have seen no credible report alleging significant vote rigging that could have reversed the outcome of the election.
If I make a reservation in parenthesis, it could only be the absence of credible opposition candidates fielded in the Oromia Regional State, as OFCo was systematically marginalized, and of course the unique cases of Tigray and Benishangul National Regional States.
In politics, as in any other competitive venture, counting on false hypotheses is counterproductive. That is why I strongly contend that Opposition Parties would do well if they aren’t dwelling on the easy way out. The mark of a weak opposition is playing the blame game on a regular basis without doing its fair share of the real struggle (and after an objective analysis, come up with the foul play orchestrated by the incumbent). Parties in opposition should time after time try to take lessons from the 2005 election and bank on the experience.
Kinjit and Hibret did spectacularly great not because there wasn’t concerted effort to eject them from the election spectrum or because of the absence of seemingly impregnable roadblocks to thwart their activities, but in spite of them.
Are Opposition Parties Growing Weaker?
We have less than two years to hold an election, and opposition parties are losing high-profile leaders and yet are unable to make their presence felt.
Unless Opposition Parties discard their inner petty squabbles and forge forward with a sense of mission, the 2026 election is going to look more like the 2015 one. We all know the outcome of that phenomenal election. At the height of a nationwide opposition rocking the country, EPRDF declared that it had won all the 547 seats of the House of People Representatives. For all practical purposes, EPRDF’s fate was doomed right after the 2015 election.
Had EPRDF allowed a little concession to have opposition candidates take a few seats, it could have deferred its eventual demise by a few years. It wouldn’t, and the hitherto sporadically brewing opposition gained momentum and seized the opportunity.
What was an opportunity back then might become a threat or a nightmare in 2026. In 2015, EPRDF was a clay-footed colossus ready to crush into the abyss with a gentle nudge. In those days, however, their respective priorities varied; opposition movements all over the country had the wisdom to pragmatically exploit the opportunity and prop up one another. Though it remains to be seen, this time around I don’t think there are viable oppositions capable of rising above the near and immediate interests of localized agendas.
What is to be done, Comrades?
Scholars, elders, and community leaders should rise to the occasion to fill the vacuum and enable the formation and founding of a Kinjit-like coalition to edge out or at least contain PP. Reputed scholars like Prof. Mesfin of the dialogue commission would do the country valuable service if they were engaged in such a meaningful venture rather than passing the hat to collect grievances in a country where the cup of misery is full and overflowing.
God Bless
You can reach the writer via estefanoussamuel@yahoo.com
