Somalia at Risk of Becoming a Jihadist State

Somalia is embroiled in a deepening crisis involving an ascendant jihadist insurgency, a faltering peace support operation, domestic political polarization, and regional geopolitical competition. The federal government’s de facto sphere of control is confined to Mogadishu and a few satellite towns: essentially a metropolis with a diplomatic corps and a demoralized, ineffectual army. Absent a dramatic change in direction, likely near-term scenarios include collapse of the federal government and an al Shabaab takeover of the national capital, with profound consequences for regional stability and security. … Pulling Somalia back from the abyss and on course to recovery may still be possible, but it is primarily a political challenge rather than a military one. Al Shabaab can only be defeated through simultaneous military action on multiple fronts, with the strategic objective of dismantling their strongholds in the Juba River Valley and southwest Somalia. This, in turn, can only be achieved by coordinated deployment of Federal Member States’ security forces, with select federal units in a supporting role. This demands a level of trust between the Federal Government and Federal Member States’ political leaders that currently is lacking. (Africa Center for Strategic Studies)