In an era of volatility, geopolitical conflict, climate shocks, supply-chain disruptions, rapid technological change, and political polarization, headlines announcing steady GDP growth can sometimes feel surreal. Policymakers tout resilience, economists cheer the prospect of a soft landing, and markets respond with optimism. Yet the steady rise in GDP during periods of obvious instability raises an important question: are we mistaking economic motion for genuine stability?
GDP growth during instability is not nearly as paradoxical as it seems. At its core, GDP is a measure of economic activity, transactions, spending, production, not a measure of societal health or long-term security. Instability often stimulates the very activity GDP records. Following climate disasters, rebuilding efforts inject money into construction and materials. Defense spending increases during geopolitical tension. Families facing uncertain futures may accelerate purchases, bolstering consumption. Governments turn to stimulus, humanitarian aid programs, and emergency infrastructure spending. All of this pushes GDP upward, even if much of the activity is reactive rather than productive.
This dynamic exposes a crucial limitation: GDP does not differentiate between distress-driven spending and investments that create lasting value. When storms destroy coastal infrastructure and rebuilding begins, GDP rises. When public health systems strain under new waves of illness, healthcare expenditures – borne out of necessity – add to GDP. If instability forces governments to pour money into short-term mitigation rather than long-term development, GDP registers the churn without revealing the underlying fragility. It captures the cost of coping, not the quality of progress.
None of this means steady GDP growth should be dismissed. It does signal something real: the capacity of an economy to keep functioning under pressure. It reflects the adaptability of businesses, the flexibility of labor markets, and the ability of households and governments to stay engaged even in turbulent times. An economy that continues to grow while facing serious instability is displaying a form of resilience that is meaningful and worth recognizing.
But the persistence of growth should not blind us to the fact that resilience can coexist with accumulating risk. A society can experience steady GDP growth while suffering deep political divisions, eroding public trust, widening inequality, deteriorating infrastructure, and escalating climate impacts. GDP may rise even as the foundations supporting it begin to weaken. Stability on paper is not the same as stability in practice.
The deeper issue is that GDP has been miscast as a barometer of national well-being. Policymakers often use it as shorthand for progress: if the number is up, the country is doing well. But GDP was never intended to be a metric of stability, prosperity, or social cohesion. It cannot measure whether growth is inclusive or exclusive, whether it contributes to long-term resilience or simply papers over immediate vulnerabilities. A rising GDP is compatible with exhausted workers, fragile supply chains, overwhelmed local governments, and communities repeatedly hammered by climate disasters.
To understand how steady GDP can obscure underlying instability, consider the nature of investment. Growth fueled by short-term crisis response does not have the same value as growth built on long-term foundations like education, infrastructure, innovation, and sustainable energy. If governments are using fiscal patches to maintain momentum while deferring structural problems, GDP can look stable even as long-term risks deepen. Similarly, if households sustain consumption through rising debt rather than rising income, GDP can grow while financial vulnerability increases. In such cases, the economy is running on borrowed time.
We need a richer conversation, one that takes GDP seriously but not literally. Instead of treating it as a scorecard, we should see it as one indicator among many. A society seeking real stability must complement GDP with metrics that track household financial security, climate resilience, public health, political cohesion, and the strength of democratic institutions. If GDP rises while these indicators fall, we are not on a stable path; we are accelerating toward a future in which the economic facade eventually cracks under the pressure of unresolved problems.
The challenge is not that GDP is misleading, but that we rely on it too heavily. Numbers can provide reassurance in uncertain times, and steady growth offers a comforting narrative. Yet the task of leadership is to look beyond comfort and confront reality. Stability is not measured solely by how much we produce, but by how well we are prepared for the storms, literal and metaphorical, that lie ahead.
Steady GDP growth amid serious instability may be real, but it is not a sign to relax. It is an invitation to take a deeper look at the strengths and weaknesses of the system supporting that growth and to build an economy where resilience is measured not just by spending, but by the security and well-being of the society that sustains it.
