A new IFAD report warns that disruptions in global fertilizer and fuel supplies are already reverberating through rural economies, exposing how quickly international crises can turn into local food and livelihood emergencies. The report says countries across Africa, including Ethiopia, are facing rising input costs, supply bottlenecks and growing pressure on small-scale producers as the conflict in the Middle East upends key trade routes.
The report, Global shock, local crisis: Sustaining rural livelihoods through adaptive practices, says the abrupt interruption of fertilizer and fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb has already pushed up prices and threatened planting seasons across Africa, Asia and parts of Latin America. It warns that the shock is being absorbed most heavily at the farm gate, where small-scale producers have the least capacity to cope.
For Ethiopia, the report places the country among those most exposed to the wider regional fallout, citing fuel supply tightness, higher import costs and pressure on agricultural production. Across sub-Saharan Africa, it says food insecurity risks are deepening as higher energy and fertilizer prices feed into transport costs, food inflation and lower farm productivity.
The IFAD analysis says that in many African countries, imported fertilizer and fuel remain essential to agriculture, leaving rural livelihoods vulnerable to external shocks. It notes that some countries import more than half of their fertilizer from Gulf sources, making them highly dependent on unstable supply corridors.
The report also points to practical examples of how countries and projects are responding. It cites locally adapted fertilizer solutions, digital soil and input advisory platforms, and flexible crisis-response mechanisms as tools that can help farmers maintain production during periods of disruption. In Ethiopia and other affected countries, such approaches could help reduce dependence on imported inputs while strengthening resilience at the community level.
IFAD argues that the crisis reinforces the need to invest in what it calls resilience at the “first mile” of food systems — the point where shocks first hit farmers, producers and rural traders. The report says that without stronger storage, local production systems and adaptive support, external shocks will continue to pass quickly into domestic markets and household food insecurity.
The agency says governments and development partners should prioritize rural resilience before the next crisis intensifies. That means supporting small-scale producers, improving access to affordable inputs, strengthening local production systems and building emergency response tools that can be activated quickly when markets are disrupted.
