Reexamining Ethiopia’s Ethnic Federal Model to Advance Peace and Security

Ethiopia’s ethnic federal model represents a source of structural instability by incentivizing ethno-nationalist militias to amplify ethnically based grievances as a means of mobilizing local recruitment and rationalizing violence. In most regions where these ethnic militias operate, they command relatively small forces and limited popular support. These ethnic militias, moreover, are by and large not pursuing democratic solutions to their grievances, as evidenced by their threats to or attacks on electoral processes. Rather, these militias are often splinters from a larger political party that has disavowed violence and is willing to pursue political channels to advance the interests of their regions. … Several of these militias, meanwhile, are in regions that border Ethiopia’s neighbors and are easily instrumentalized by foreign actors, which could fuel further escalation. … Aside from elections, building a more stable federal model will require ensuring adequate space for politicians from opposition parties to contribute to the regional and national agenda, independent media to fulfill their role in informing the public, civic education on Ethiopia’s federal system, and strengthening institutional checks and balances to uphold the rule of law. Africa Center for Strategic Studies