Ethiopia’s per capita air travel is projected to increase by 150 percent over the next two decades, while the country’s origin-and-destination passenger traffic is expected to grow nearly sixfold between 2025 and 2045, according to Airbus’s Global Market Forecast (GMF) 2026.
The projections highlight Ethiopia’s growing importance in Africa’s aviation industry, as rising demand for air connectivity, economic expansion and demographic changes are expected to reshape the continent’s air transport market.
Airbus forecasts that passenger traffic to, from and within Africa will nearly triple over the next 20 years, expanding at an annual compound growth rate of 4.9 percent. The continent is expected to require 1,640 new passenger aircraft by 2045, including 1,310 single-aisle and 330 widebody aircraft, reflecting the anticipated expansion of domestic, regional and international air travel.
Africa is projected to become the world’s second-fastest-growing aviation market after Asia.
The forecast identifies demographic and economic developments as major drivers of demand. Africa’s population is expected to increase by approximately 720 million over the forecast period, exceeding two billion by 2045. The continent’s middle class is projected to grow by 180 million, while its urban population is expected to expand by 450 million, reaching 47 percent of the total population.
These changes are expected to increase demand for business travel, tourism and connections between major commercial centres and emerging markets.
Ethiopia’s projected 150 percent increase in per capita air travel reflects the anticipated expansion of its aviation market. The country’s strategic location, growing urban centres and role in regional and international air transport could further strengthen its position within Africa’s aviation network.
“Aviation is one of the most powerful catalysts for Africa’s broader economic development,” said Gabriel Semelas, president of Airbus in Africa and the Middle East.
He said stronger cooperation across the aviation industry would help connect communities, facilitate regional trade and create opportunities for economic growth.
The forecast also points to the potential contribution of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), more flexible visa policies and expanded fifth-freedom traffic rights to the development of the continent’s aviation market. Together with investment in airport infrastructure, these measures could improve regional connectivity, facilitate trade and support tourism.
For Ethiopia, sustained growth in air travel would create opportunities for airlines, airports, tourism operators and other aviation-related businesses. However, meeting projected demand will require continued investment in airport capacity, fleet expansion, skilled personnel and efficient aviation services.
Airbus projects that newer-generation, fuel-efficient aircraft will account for 65 percent of Africa’s operational fleet by 2035, up from 30 percent in 2025.
The transition is expected to help airlines improve fuel efficiency and operational performance while responding to growing passenger demand.
