Wednesday, September 17, 2025
Home Blog Page 2274

Hyper Inflation – A Consumer’s Perspective

0

By Samuel Estefanous

The last remark of the Premier that had concluded the Macro-Economy Committee meeting still rings in my ears. Unfortunately not like a soothing musical soft note but as a persistent maddening tinnitus.
I believe that is what everybody feels after paying a 10 birr taxi fare for a distance he used to pay 2.50 birr a year or two ago; after paying 95 birr for a humble square meal of fasting diet that used to cost under 30 birr; after settling a 12 birr bill for a cup of coffee that used to cost under five birr and right after hear the Premier declare that the economy is performing great on all scores and indicators but inflation.
To begin with the Committee itself is of dubious legal origin and status. I mean according to the website of the Office of the Prime minister, it is invested with sweeping powers as ‘the Central Organ that coordinates Economic Policy making within the government.’ I assume it is a Secretariat/Office established by the House of People’s Representative as provided under article 14 of the proclamation 1263/21 to provide for the definition of the power and duties of the Executive Organs of the Federal Democratic Republic Ethiopia. However the website of the Prime Minister Office betrays no hint about that and I wonder if its designation, power, duties and most important of all its accountability are duly determined by constitutional means. Anyway this is beside the point and it requires an extensive study per se.
In my view the combined purposes of the other indicators-remittance, foreign direct investment, export, GDP etc – should have been to help keep the cost of food and other consumer items as well as accommodation and everyday bills low. With this in mind, successive governments (including the incumbent) have established and maintained Public Enterprises that cater for the low income communities. If any Secretariat or Office is to be established it should have been one that is totally committed to address this question of survival and all eyes at the PM office should have been trained on the said enterprises.
I don’t agree with those who summarily contend that the rest indicators might as well go to hell, though I am very much tempted to. But under the circumstances, I sure do sympathize with people who argue that it isn’t fair to expect impoverished folks to appreciate the aesthetical values of the public parks and glorify the engineering feat of the Kera area tunnels on empty stomachs. You see, presently the meager and average wage earners might be forced to the walk the distances past endless streams of seven and eight digit worth SUVs; skip lunch and forego coffee but in the event of war or any other National calamity, they are the ones to readily enlist to defend the honor and Sovereignty the country. Who would contest the fact that, in large measure, this is a Country balanced on the shoulders of the ‘les Miserables’? The rest is an illusion; it will be gone at the snap of the finger.
Here is something that keeps me thinking, the World Bank and the EU had long included in said development indicators the level of reduced inequality of wealth distribution. How come the Macro economy Committee doesn’t tally that up? It is true, yielding to pressure from labor advocacy activists, the government is trying to address the question of setting the National minimum wage but would it ever disclose in monetary terms the wages in the highest paid income category? Unless the yawning gap is too wide to release to the public consumption, it should have long commissioned a study and tried to narrow the rift by revoking privileges bestowed on the rich and the glam in the vain attempt to boost investment if need be.
At the end of the day, the regular end line consumer pays VAT and Excise taxes as well as all kinds of custom duties. The government is yet hatching schemes to add Property and Development tax to the list. The property owner readily transfers the tax levied on the lessee and keeps enjoying life as usual. The consumer is expected to bear this extra burden and he is being told it is for his own good. As usual the rich will get richer while the poor is fast becoming destitute.
This kinda reminds me the irony of the tragic co-existence of filthy wealth and destitution as depicted by Brehanu Zerihun in his epic trilogy ye’Abiyot Wazema, Mebacha and Magst. In the middle of narrating the harrowing starvation of Biblical proportion visited up on the people of Tigray and Wollo, one of the characters was constantly being interrupted by radio commercials for imported Madeira wine and Courvoisier whisky, recommending the latter brand as a relieving medium for the problem of over stuffing on raw meat and other delicacies.
Judging by the tweets of the Premier, the other indicators that had grown by leaps and bounds are Foreign Direct Investment, Green legacy, volunteer services, remittance, automation performance, export, job creation and guess what? Decrease of inflation in the past two months as reported by the Ethiopian News Agency. The macro-economic development indicators have long become familiar to us courtesy of the cable news networks but I refrain from getting technical lest I should lose the privilege of looking at the said growth with untrained eyes. Let professionals handle that with expert eyes and debunk the claims in a scientific manner complete with projections of tendencies, opportunities and threats.
Only for God’s sake don’t begin with ‘America has got it even worse’. I would rather the economists reflect on the famous rendition of the perils of globalized economy by the late Premier who had noted that our economy is too fragile and vulnerable to let it loose on the high seas. He had told us that his government had chosen to keep it safe from the turbulences of the deadly tsunami on the high seas by anchoring ours to the village stream. May be there is some wisdom in that ‘macro-economy policy’ to keep prices of local consumer items low.
Bottom line? Since we – the end line consumers- cannot ignore the constant rumbling in our tummy; we too have something to say on the subject. After all no high sounding jargons are going to bake any injera for us. If you ask me the greatest practical economists and budget experts are retired poor folks who make the survival of a family of five possible on a meager monthly pension allowance of 2,500 birr.
They feed, shelter, send kids to school, pay all sorts of bills like electricity, water, medical, local security, garbage disposal, edir, the list of the bills keeps growing. To make things even worse electricity and water bills have incredibly soared these past three years. Where else could a family of five survive on $50 per month? The fate of the civil servants isn’t any better. In this respect, I wish all luck for Labor advocacy activists who are pressing the government to issue a National minimum wage limit.
Here is a simple random indicator of the extent and magnitude of the problem of public servants in the country. On the occasion of finalizing the report of the performance of the Federal Courts for the year ended on 30 Hamle 2014, the officials of the Court had held an interesting and extensive press briefing. One of the high points of the occasion that had caught my attention was the disclosure by President of the Federal First Instance Court to the effect that 80% of the employees at his Court earn a gross salary less 4000 birr. In the event you are wondering that is the average monthly rental value of a bachelor’s one room pad in Addis Ababa.
Thus, when the overwhelming majority of the public isn’t living in the true sense of the term but simply surviving by the Grace of the Good Lord, it is like swimming against the current to make any sense of development as measured by any kind of growth and development indicators fashioned by institutions of higher learning in the West. At the high risk being taken for a simpleton, I have to note this- at the end of the day the kind of economic development indicator the consumer appreciates and understands is the reduced price of teff per quintal at the grain bernda of mercato, the regularity of public transport fares, most important of all the availability and affordability of accommodations to lease.
God Bless.

The writer could be reached at estefanoussamuel@yahoo.com

ECSOC calls for de-escalation of conflict

0

The Ethiopian Civil Society Organizations Council (ECSOC) said that it is deeply worried and saddened by the recurrence of armed conflict in the northern part of Ethiopia.
The armed conflict has brought unspeakable human suffering and enormous destruction of physical infrastructures.
The Council strongly urges and calls for calmness and de-escalation of the situation. Honoring the humanitarian truce is vital both for the supply of humanitarian aid and to pave the way for peacemaking efforts.
ECSOC also strongly underscores that disagreements of any sort should be addressed through political dialogue. To this end, the Council appeals for the peace process to resume immediately and for both sides to recommence the process in good faith to save the country and its citizens from another round of devastation.
Therefore, the Council calls upon the African Union to continue to play its role with the highest sense of urgency directly engaging the Federal government and the TPLF with the aim of reaching a peace settlement the priority.

KQ maintains steady path to recovery as it releases its half year 2022 results

0

National carrier Kenya Airways PLC (KQ) has released its Half Year financial results for the six months ending June 2022 at a virtual investor briefing. The Group’s total revenue stood at Kshs 48,104 million, recording a 76% increase compared to the same period last year. This increase is mainly attributed to a significant growth in passenger revenue which grew by 109%, and cargo revenue which increased by 18%.
During the first half of 2022, operations were positively impacted by pent-up demand and the removal of travel restrictions, resulting in a strong and sustained recovery in trading performance compared to a similar period in the prior year.
KQ uplifted a total of 1.61 million passengers during the period, an 85% improvement compared to the prior year’s 0.87 million passengers. This, however, remains 33% lower than the pre-pandemic period of 2019. Cargo tonnage increased by 39% compared to the same period in 2021, demonstrating continuous outstanding growth in air freight services.

Which Development Model Today?

The United States has many strengths and admirable qualities, but the nation’s politics is plagued by paralysis and deep partisan polarization, even though the country has a well-established federal union. The United States economy has benefited in recent years from low energy costs, but it has become bitterly divided into unequal camps of winners and losers. All these tensions have boiled over and resulted in the phenomenon of President Donald Trump, whose allegedly “erratic” presidency is stalling badly needed reforms and furthering national division.
Meanwhile, China’s hybrid brand of “communist capitalism” remains an authoritarian puzzle of immense contradictions. While it has moved forward vigorously with renewable energies, a growing middle class is still proportionally small compared to the vast numbers of poor, even as inequality, corruption and cronyism thrive. Impressive levels of industrial production have resulted in astounding levels of environmental ruin.
Steven Hill, a journalist and author of the book entitled “The Startup Illusion” stated that it turns out that a domineering executive leadership as in China and the United States is only great when it leads in the right direction. In comparison, the EU doesn’t always look so bad. Europe’s social capitalism is clearly the global leader in several crucial dimensions, more so than either China’s state capitalism or America’s Wall Street-Silicon Valley capitalism. Yet, Europe also is plagued by a number of major challenges. These include, a shortage of economic solidarity between member states; resurgent tribalism and nationalism, and institutional incoherence at the EU level. The three of these are intricately linked.
Steven Hill noted that the lack of institutional and ideological support for a currency union has held back the EU during its economic recovery. Some of that economic loss has been reversed recently, and some forms of institutional solidarity have been created by the European Commission and member states. This includes the beginnings of a banking union to support the financial infrastructure of Europe.
In the aftermath of the collapse of Soviet-led communism, the rationale for contesting politics has shifted dramatically over the last two and a half decades. As European societies have become more affluent, many center-right parties, like the Christian Democrats in Germany, have become “social democrats,” even if not Social Democrats. Paul Goldschmidt, former Director, EU Commission and Member of the Advisory Board of Stand Up for Europe stated that the European political contest has essentially shifted away from economic issues to a battle over a new kind of tribalism – north-south, east-west, left-right, and especially white Christian vs racialized Islam. The Spanish struggle over sovereignty with the region of Catalonia is the latest manifestation, with more such cracks and fissures still ahead.
Paul Goldschmidt argued that a number of euroskeptic partisans, both in Europe and the United States, who want nothing more than to see the demise of the European Way, have gleefully predicted the imminent collapse of the EU over these divisions. But they have been predicting this for decades, and have always been wrong. It is instructive to remind ourselves that various tribal-isms have been a major part of the human experience for thousands of years. The national, ethnic and religious instinct to ensure the success of one’s own tribe at the expense of another is an age-old response.
Given the pressures of the new tribalism, ineffective governance in the EU has contributed to it becoming a target for popular frustration. Partly for this reason, German chancellor Angela Merkel, as the head of the largest member state, has been thrust by recent events into the role as the de facto prime minister of Europe.
Yet, how does a German Chancellor, Angela Merkel rise above domestic passions and politics to do what is best for Europe, in the absence of clear-cut institutional coherence at the EU level? Paul Goldschmidt noted that in her makeshift role, Chancellor Merkel has done an admirable job in certain respects. But she also has made mistakes, in part because her role as the EU’s prime minister conflicts with her domestic priorities as German chancellor.
Various scholars, including Thomas Piketty, Jurgen Habermas and others, have proposed more simplified and integrated political structures to close this democracy gap. In his recent State of the Union speech, entitled “Wind in our Sails,” Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker smartly proposed merging his office with the presidency of the European Council, saying the European ship should be “steered by one and the same captain at the helm.” Jean-Claude Juncker also proposed a European Monetary Fund, the creation of a new EU minister of economy and finance, as well as a European Labour Authority to ensure fairness and workers’ rights across the EU’s single market.
Jean-Claude Juncker also pointed out that, once Brexit is completed in 2019, the eurozone will represent 85% of the EU’s GDP. That makes convergence between the EU and eurozone much more doable. In that sense, Brexit should be regarded as an unexpected blessing, since the UK has often played the role of spoiler in developing an EU consensus over these important matters. His’ proposals were predictably greeted with a mixed response by most member state leaders. It is clear that until more political leaders make the case to their national electorates for “ever closer union,” progress toward a more robust union will remain elusive. Given that factor, for now a multi-speed Europe is a reality.
Ronald Meinardus, the Regional Director of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF) in New Delhi, India stated that other challenges, such as Russian adventurism and a flood of refugees from the near-abroad, will continue to cause alarm due to Europe’s disjointed institutional design and unity. But as in the past, each crisis will spur further evolution toward union because, more than ever, Europe and the world needs a modernized humanism that offers a viable alternative to the return of tribes, scapegoats, bluster and walls.