In early April the government of Ethiopia reinforced its emergency measures by declaring a state of emergency over covid-19. At the time, it looked like it might be a good thing to do. After all, the human race was at war with a New Plague… that, we were told, could rake through the population, killing millions. But soon after some voices began to question the statistics and the tough measures taken across the world; now almost six months after Covid-19, we have better understanding of the facts:
Most people won’t get the virus.
Most of the people who get it have no symptoms.
Most of the people who display symptoms have mild sickness.
Most of the people with severe symptoms will never be critically ill.
Most of the people who get critically ill will survive.
Studies show, again and again, that the infection fatality ratio is on par with flu. Here is a text from Chris Whitty, the UK Chief Medic:
At an individual level the chances of dying of Coronavirus are low.
Over the whole epidemic, even if there is no vaccine, a high proportion will not get it.
Of those who do, a significant proportion (exact number not yet clear) have no symptoms.
Of the symptomatic cases, the great majority (around 80%) have a mild moderate disease.
A minority have to go to hospital, most need only oxygen,. The great majority of these survive.
A minority of those need ventilation
A minority of every age group sadly die with current treatment, but even of the oldest group most do not.
It’s clear the dangerousness of Covid-19 was overestimated: WHO’s Africa Region highlighted, that its model showed that up to 22% of African population (1 billion) could be infected in one year and as large as 190,000 deaths could occur over 52 weeks. The numbers for Ethiopia showed over 4 million infected, and 2 thousands plus deaths. And yet at no point did the danger posed by the new virus go beyond the normal level.
Here is some recent information from Italy: The median age of death in Italy was over 80. Young people are almost immune. The Italian report revealed that by mid-March, no one under 30 had died from the virus there. And there had been only 17 deaths among people under 50… And all those under 40 who had died from the virus had pre-existing “co-morbidities.” Overall, 99% of the fatalities had a previously existing ailment.
Between the young and the old is about a half a century… and a thousand times difference in mortality rates. And yet, under the various internment or lockdown programs, the two groups were locked up together. But all the evidence that has come out since then has confirmed that this is no indiscriminate killer. Instead, it merely overwhelms those senior folks already weakened with existing health problems. For everybody else, it is just another of life’s risks. And for people under 60, it carries about the same risk as driving to work.
Still drastic measures have been imposed or kept in many countries, including Ethiopia where the government introduced a state of emergency law, school and university closures, stay at home, mandatory masks etc. with the argument that covid19 is terrifying, unique, an existential threat to the human race. The message we’re fed tells people to be afraid. Very afraid, of death, of uncertainty, of the ‘virus’, of other people, of ‘fake news’!
As you may have noticed, there are many that do not want to admit the “reality”. The media, the authorities, the health experts, and even the police have induced war hysteria. Wearing a mask, for example, has become a display of not just civic virtue, but obedience. Dissent was dismissed as “reckless,” anti-social… or treasonous. Adults challenged each other: “Why aren’t you wearing a mask?”
But where is the science?
Is there evidence that a non-mask-wearing society will be worse off than one where masks are obligatory? It doesn’t exist. Some places require face masks; some don’t. Some people wear them; some don’t.
Even the World Health Organization now disputes the need for masks. Here’s its new guideline: If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19. In fact read this WHO guideline extract from the June 5 Advice on the use of masks in the context of COVID-19: “At present, there is no direct evidence (from studies on COVID19 and in healthy people in the community) on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19.” https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks
Dear Reader,
Is this something that can go on forever and worse still, can we ignore the collateral which could potentially result in more deaths than what Covid-19 is causing?
We understand it’s not asking too much for us to take a handful of reasonable precautions to protect the potential victims of this, mostly the elderly and some young children. But why ignore the economy? Why Marshall law? For all we know governments might put us into lock down, start taking people who they claim have the virus and say they died of the virus. Yes Dear Readers, we have to be careful not to evolve into a form of totalitarianism that would have the trappings of capitalism and democracy to deceive us, a prison without walls and slavery without tears.
No one wants to survive only to face massive unemployment, abject poverty, unnecessary fear, hunger, and early death… Many people would take their chances with Covid-19.
Bad Dream
BOND MARKET UNBONDING
When the market for a particular government bond collapses, be it within its own jurisdiction, or out there in the global open market, it means the state issuing the bonds is as good as dead, so to speak. Domestic bond market collapse is quite rare, as the state can usually print enough money to pay its obligations, of course, this operation has other side effects, like hyperinflation and so on. Default in the international bond market, however, is a different animal altogether. In almost all defaulting cases, there are, a priori, telltale signs to indicate the country might not be able to meet its international obligations. Usually when a country gets in trouble, it contacts the IMF (International Monetary Fund). Countries in the periphery are always under the auspices of the IMF (and other external institutions) as they are not financially sovereign. These countries are usually not allowed to issue bonds on the international market!
The core countries of the system, specially the US, influence the decisions of global financial institutions, particularly the multilateral ones like the IMF and the World Bank. The stringent requirements (of the multilateral institutions), be they for issuance of international bonds or direct/indirect loans, can be waived for certain favored nations. For example, Argentina was recently given massive loans from the multilateral institutions, even though the country was on the verge of default. Argentina has defaulted twice (on its international bonds) since the beginning of this century. No matter! Generally speaking, sovereign defaults are quite rare, as countries in troubled waters usually renegotiate (with the help/cajoling of the IMF) the terms and conditions of their bonds or loans with creditors, be they state, multilateral or private. IMF is the leading global institution that is mandated to safe guard the ‘smooth’ operations of the global monetary system. Hence, the IMF is more than willing to take harsh measures, particularly against those peripheral states, before things get out of hand. Be that as it may and in the scheme of global monetary regime, the thorny question still remains; what happens when some of the major core countries get in trouble? One must take due cognizant that at the end of the day, all debts, private or otherwise, are ultimately backstopped by sovereign states or more appropriately by nation-states!
The bond market is a debt market for the big players, i.e., transnational capital and sovereign states. When things go haywire in the government bond market, it signals serious trouble. After all, when a sovereign state defaults on its bonds, it means it might not pay its police force, military, teachers, doctors, etc. It cannot smoothly buy and sale goods. Pensions cannot be paid to retirees. Planes cannot fly, ships cannot sail, trains cannot roll, running water might not be available, electricity, satellite communication might be disrupted, etc., etc.! We assume you got the drift. In short, the bond market is the real engine that moves the whole global economy, albeit quietly. When there is a crisis in the bond market, every entity that matters gets involved, with the objective of salvaging the situation before contagion takes the lead. It is during such crises in the wider bond market the world witnesses the most ridiculous amount of printed money being injected into the world system. ‘Whatever it takes’ was what the ECB head once said, when the yields on the bonds of the ‘club med’ (Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc.) started to skyrocket (@ 7%)! Don’t forget; many of these core countries have outstanding bonds/debts (on the open market) to the tune of trillions of USD! Even a 1% rise in yield/interest on their bonds can cause havoc to the country’s economic situation. However, the system is set up in such a way as to allow these countries to rollover their bonds on maturity. They only pay interests/yields on their outstanding bonds. Therefore, it is only in rare occasions the global bond market exhibits tendencies that are out of the ordinary. Unbeknownst to many, this is exactly what happened in August of 2019!.
In the summer of 2019, the US repo market literally froze. The repo market is a market where large scale borrowers (usually hedge funds, investment banks, etc.) access quick cash from large scale lenders (financial entities, such as mutual funds, etc.) by depositing their US treasuries (bills/bonds) as collateral for a nominal rate of interest. Repo is almost always a short-term financial transaction (overnight) between borrowers and lenders that reside in the world of high finance. Technically speaking, the US repo market is broad, deep and liquid. The daily transaction of the US repo market is in the trillions of USD. As we said, interest rates in the repo market are usually nominal, but in August of 2019, the rate rose to about 10%. This was unprecedented! Unlike the fleeting and noisy stock market, the bond market is not only huge, but is also dead serious and meticulous in its operation to the point of being boring! What happened in August 2019 in the US repo market freaked out the world of finance and led to a pandemonium, which of course was not visible to the global sheeple (human mass). Now comes the trillion dollars question; is this the economic pandemonium that actually forced the microbe plandemic on global humanity?
Assuming the affirmative and speaking pragmatically, the global lockdown might well have been necessary to bring the accelerating catastrophic collapse of the world system (economic/financial/commercial/social/cultural…) to a more ‘orderly unraveling’! Again, the fake stock market (pumped up by the major global central banks) completely detached from reality, might also be another of the tricks employed by the establishment to gradually introduce the magnitude of the disaster to the unsuspecting parasitic elites. To be sure, the ‘orderly unraveling’ of the stock market is yet to come! Given the freezing of the US repo market and other indicators, the old printing tactic might not do the trick this time around. After all, ‘printing money out of thin air does not increase wealth, it only increases claims on existing wealth’ (Charles Hugh Smith). See his article next column and others on pages 28 & 30. In other words, printing is always inflationary as it water downs purchasing power affecting, for the most part, the working stiff/multitudes. Printing also causes inflation in the various asset classes, from rare paintings, to real estate…, as the phony money is directed towards the connected. Here is how a printer, aka a central banker, put it. ‘We make money the old-fashioned way. We print it.’ Art Rolnick, chief economist for the Minneapolis Fed!
Here is a more sinister worldview that might well be the major operating principle behind the prevailing global pandemic regime. “The individual is handicapped by coming face to face with a conspiracy so monstrous he cannot believe it exists.” J. Edgar Hoover, the first director of the FBI. Good day!
Branding and WTO accession
Under the modernization process launched in 2010, Ethio Telecom, the most profitable enterprise in Ethiopia, changed its long established logo.
When the new logo was introduced in February 2012 the enterprise stated that the ‘e’ shape with blue, green and yellow colour combination holds the ideas of: sharing and fertility inspired by the green ecosystem of Ethiopia; sharing smiles; sharing a new story of the enterprise. The new logo replaced the lion, a traditional drum and sticks logo and for massive introduction of the new logo the enterprise spent millions of birr.
But it took a matter of days for the logo to be criticized by many people. At the time observers claimed that the public enterprise directly copied a logo ofEuroclean, a Turkish based commercial cleaning company, with just colour and size changes.
Just few months after the replacement of the old logo Debretsion Gebremichael, the then Minister of Information and Communication, said that the enterprise is working to change the new logo due to different reasons including knowing that there are similarities with other logo.
Experts said that the concept of marketing emerged from economics that split in 1950s and at the same time now branding is separated from marketing.
Branding is now the youngest discipline even in the developed countries, while there is a perception that branding and marketing are the same but it is not true, according to experts.
Experts that Capital interviewed said that branding is not similar with advertising, which is one aspect of marketing.
“Branding requires specialists.We are now observing companies in Ethiopia hiring professionals in the field. It is a fulltime work rather than advertisement, which mainly targets to inform, persuade or reminding customers on short term manners when you have to approach your customers to sell your service or product,” they clarified.
When it comes to Ethio Telecom, its logo consumed millions of birr for rebranding and publications. After those huge expenses the enterprise stated immediatelythat it will change its logo, meanwhile so far it has not yet been changed.
Ephrem Arefeayne, Chief Marketing Officer at Ethio Telecom, told Capital that the telecom company does not have a plan to change its logo.“We are working on evolution at the logo. Initial featuresof the logo evolved and our plan is to continue under evolution,” he said.
“Otherwise we will not have dramatic change that might be seen in the future,” Ephrem added.
Meanwhile he argued that the logo of Ethio Telecom is introduced after detailed work. “It consider the country, its culture, the enterprise, and other different points stated under nine parameters, and then at the final arrival it looks like another logo.” “But Ethio Telecom’s logo still has a difference with Euroclean, for instance if we compare the backgrounds they are totally different,” he said.
“Logos might look identical but when evaluating them in details they have different messages; for instance our logo have a smiling face, sharing and greenery of the country,” he argued.
At the same time big companies in Ethiopia like financial institutions are engaged on rebranding their services and logos, which is a symbol of their identity. Meanwhile like Ethio Telecom observers are criticizing the short sighted rebranding scheme of these big businesses that come with huge expenses and accused them on brand piracy.
For instance a week ago Hibret Bank has introduced its new brand that is highly criticized by observers.
Observers said that most of the logos that companies adopted these days are experiencing lack of creativity and artistic values. Besides that mostly the logos are a copy paste of other service givers in other countries.
Experts criticized that the concept of ‘brand equity’ is not get attention in the Ethiopian business owners.
Aschalew Tamiru, lecturer in the marketing field in different universities for a decade and who works as marketing and branding expert in different organizations, said brand can be a name, shape, abbreviations, text, sign, or a combination of these and brand is mainly a way to differentiate a company in addition to the product and service. “Your brand should enable you to let you stand out of the crowed,” he said.
According to Aschalew, brand and a person is the same. “A man shall have known behavior, character and features. With the same token brand is the identity of the company like a person,” he explained.
He added that the formation of brand should need to identify target market and define a customer, which are the basics to successful branding. “For instance you are the seller of children goods so you have to consider them and at the same time should consider the type of buyers that might be high class, lower class or medium.” “Examine the target customers is part of the basics.”
Besides that consistent with brand positioning is the other pillar for branding that is the position of the company on the mind of customers, according to him.
“You have to define yourself in the eyes of your customers. For instance when you hear Sheraton or Unilever what comes in your customers mind should be consistent. So that customers would think the way you want get thought,” he said.
Creating the element of the brand is the other step, which might have icon or word mark, according to the sector experts.
According to legal experts these logos will not survive after the country’s accession to World Trade Organization (WTO) becomes a reality.
Ephrem argued that his company logo will not be affected in the accession of WTO. “We did not directly copy the logo from others due to that it will not be a challenge,” he argued.
On the other hand observers said that the new Hibret logo is not the only copy pasted symbol in the sector but other banks that were rebranding their logo in the past few months or years have also gone on the same way.
For instance the logos of Cooperative Bank of Oromia, Bank of Abyssinia, Awash Bank, Nib Bank, Kaldi’s Coffee and others have close or identical similarity with other international companies except some colour and other minor feature and size or line changes.
“To make matters worse these logos can be found registered on Intellectual Property Office websites around the world. If not that you can easily search these images freely on several reverse image search engines. These companies should have done this before introducing their new logo and spent millions of birr of public money,” another legal expert told Capital.
Experts also said branding is defining standardized logo shape at board, paper, and banner are crucial that should be stated on the branding guideline.
The other brand element is corporate colours that might include primary, secondary and supporting colour that should be identified in the use when and where.
“Typeface is also part of the brand that might include font families,” experts told Capital. “For instance in our country there are working languages and it might differ the fonts for the letter in Amharic with Tigrigna or Oromiffa and English. But in Ethiopia we observe that companies are using fonts without differentiation for their different letters,” they added.
Tagline that is also called motto or slogan that is a sign of a given company objective and strategy, and corporate communication and or stationary that include standardization on designs, email signatures, ID card, fax communication, envelop, business card, stamp and other standardization should be identified as part of the branding and rebranding schemes.
Promotional items that include branded give-away defined under branding tool kits are also stated in the scheme. Communication signage should be also defined under the same token and all interfaces must be consistent.
In a statement Hibret sent to Capital it states that the bank followed international bidding process on the way to rebrand the company logo. It stated that the cost is not disclosed under nondisclosure agreement with the company, Studionet plc, who manages the rebranding process.
However experts said that the company cost is not limited at the payment for the branding company. “On the branding process the company will undertake massive public relation works and publication besides changing the features and displayat its branches with significant amount of money as other similar companies executed,” they said.
Meanwhile the company declined to give any comment about the issue it said that there is limitation regarding symbols.
A representative at the bank, who preferred anonymity, told Capital that, it could be difficult to defer symbols fully but focus and reflect on conceptualizationwas its principles.
“We have limited symbols in the worldbut regarding conceptualization the colour and the shape will be different,” a representative argued.
Branding experts said elements followed by selling the brand strategically that may consume huge amount than works on pre rebranding projects, which includes to identify and define the elements.
“After identifying the elements of the brand, marketing is the second step that will take place on convenient approach based on the customers understanding,” Aschalew, an author of ‘Make a Difference with Customer Service’, a book that focus on customer service and will be in the market in the near future, said.
“The marketing effort consume huge amount of investment,” he added.
Experts reminded that branding adds values to business but you would not harvest right away. For instance mobile phones or smart TVs with different brands give similar service but their price is not equal because of the brand.
“You pay extra because of the brand that invests huge amount for longer period of use,this shows brand is not a onetime investment.”
Aschalew said that all type of companies like big or small should have to work on branding, “sometimes small companies that are working in branding are more popular than big companies, that even happened in Ethiopia.”
At the same time branding experts’ advice that branding should not delay. “Some companies are running for long period and after those long years they try to rebrand themselves, which is not correct. Branding should be started as the business opens,” a public relation consultant, who advice different companies in public relation work under his company, said.
“With its all problems the banking industry in Ethiopia that are now engaged on aggressive rebranding works is a good example” the public relation expert, who demands anonymity, expressed his observation.
He said that banks in Ethiopia, which are the richest private firms in the country, are these days allocating huge amount of investment to branding or rebranding that is highly appreciated, “but their outcome compared with their investment is perplexing.”
“Particularly when you observe the trademarks you can easily understand that they are highly attached with piracy or based on logos simply available online,” the public relation expert said.
The expert reminded that back in the days businesses on their heyday at the emperor era logos are highly attached with creativity and experts that have skills related with it, but now it is attached with computer graphic designers who lazily come up with different signs that they access online in different samples.
“You even easily access a free logo generator application online.” “If you invest huge amount of money why don’t you approach professionalsthat might be called artists or others that are close for the sector,” the expert asked.
Aschalew on the other hand said that brand is not a product to sale, meanwhile it is a result of long effort and way, which leads to a brand equity.
He said that such kind of problematic logos will not be equity for the company in the future meanwhile they spent huge amount of money today.
“In the developed world companies hire professional firms to study their brand equity that has big values for brand owners. That is why companies franchise and using the long established brands for their business like in the hospitality industry,” the brand and marketing experts said.
“When it comes to Ethiopia most companies including big and small are shortsighted. That would affect them in the near future since their brands are a copy or indefensible that is not supported by well-developed guidelines,” experts said.
At the same time professionals argue that brand is not static due to that rebranding is crucial to fine-tune a business. For instance Coca Cola is in the market for generations, while it rebranded itself in all these periods and still popular, according to the sector experts.
“The question is that why do we suppose to rebrand because others rebranded that follows by misconception about branding,” they raised their concern.
“Branding is not only development of logo,” they argued. “For instance a lady might be attractive but does not have good behaviors that shade her beauty. It is the same for companies whose brands would be accompanied by customer’s services.”
Identify and define the customers is a pillar for brand, but local companies are invited oversea firms for their way of rebranding. “Is the company from abroad having a better clue to examine your customers or local firms? This is one of the major problems in the local rebranding,” they criticized.
When joining the WTO a country will automatically agree to abide by the laws and regulations of the organization. One of the agreements of WTO is the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) which is an international legal agreement between all the member nations of the.
TRIPS sets down minimum standards for the regulation by national governments of many forms of intellectual property (IP) as applied to nationals of other WTO member nations.
Specifically, TRIPS requires WTO members to provide copyright rights, covering authors and other copyright holders, as well as holders of related rights, namely performers, sound recording producers and broadcasting organisations; geographical indications; industrial designs; integrated circuit layout-designs; patents; new plant varieties; trademarks; trade names and undisclosed or confidential information. TRIPS also specifies enforcement procedures, remedies, and dispute resolution procedures. Protection and enforcement of all intellectual property rights shall meet the objectives to contribute to the promotion of technological innovation and to the transfer and dissemination of technology, to the mutual advantage of producers and users of technological knowledge and in a manner conducive to social and economic welfare, and to a balance of rights and obligations.
For example a good example is the dispute between Starbucks and Bull Pulu Tapioca on trademark registration.
The opposed logo incorporates the green-and white “BULL PULU TAPIOCA” concentric circle logo with a puppy white bull dog in the center.
Opposed mark designating goods of tapioca beverages, tapioca fruit juice beverages and retail or wholesale services for tapioca beverages. Subsequently, Starbucks Incorporated, a US coffee chain, filed an opposition based on a conflict with famous Starbucks trademarks.
“The two logos (pictured above) seems totally different but yet they triggered a legal battle, what do you think will happen to these companies who are now a rebranding spree when we join the WTO,” asked an expert.
Ethiopia to float 400,000 tonnes wheat bid, again
Public Procurement & Property Administration Agency, a regulatory body for the federal public procurement, allowed the Public Procurement and Property Disposal Service (PPPDS) to float a bid for 400,000 metric tonnes of milling wheat in shorter period of time than the usual time frame.
This week PPPDS decided to annul the 400,000 metric tonnes of procurement saying that it has a little bit higher price than the offer for 200,000 metric tonnes of procurement, which both were opened on the same day and supposed to be delivered in the same time frame.
Tsewaye Muluneh, Director General of PPPDS, said that the service has decided to rebid the 400,000 metric tonnes of wheat due to the offer on the previous bid opening may cost the country.
“Besides that for instance the company who offered better price for the three lots, which has 300,000 metric ton, offered different price for every lot but the product will be transported in similar time frame,” she told Capital.
Tsewaye said that if the service award the procurement it may cost the government an extra USD 2.07 million.
In a separate bidding process to procure 200,000 metric tonnes opened at the same day with the other 400,000 metric ton, the London based Gemcorp Commodities Trading that offered USD 204.97 per ton for the first 100,000 metric tonnes lot and USD 202.33 per ton for the second lot is awarded to supply the grain.
Singapore based company, Olam International, Marthina Mertens Sampl of German company offered lower price for first lot and three lots respectively.
The Singapore based company that participated only for the first lot had offered USD 212.7 per ton.
For the rest three lots classified by 100,000 metric tonnes each the German company had offered USD 219.35, USD 219.49 and USD 219.99 per ton from lot two to four.
At the same time, aiming to conclude the procurement within a short period of time the service has asked the Agency to allow a special procurement procedure.
Meanwhile the regulatory body gives a direction to the service to conduct the biding process within 25 days than special procurement, which is a way to conduct a bid by inviting limited participants.
The 400,000 metric tonnes of milling wheat is supposed to be procured for Ethiopian Trading Businesses Corporation to stabilize the market.
The procurement has taken several months due to different reasons. Tsewaye believed that the procurement process will be concluded until the end of the budget year, while since the Agency decided to conduct the bid as a normal bid with the participation of any interested bidders the process may take more time despite the bid opening date.
On Tuesday, June 9 Gemcorp and PPPDS have signed the award for the supply of 200,000 metric tonnes of wheat plus 20 percent or additional 40,000 metric tonnes at the total value of USD 48.8 million. The service has added additional 40,000 metric tonnes as per the bid rule that Tsewaye stated it would help to fill the possible demand gap until the 400,000 tonnes procurement is sealed.
The 200,000 metric tonnes of milling wheat is procured for the Ethiopian National Disaster Risk Management Commission.
