Confusion as parliament approves state of emergency
The House of People’s Representatives endorsed the state of emergency proclamation, despite a significant number of votes against the measure. During the extraordinary session on March 2, House Speaker Abadula Gemeda chaired the session.
The state of emergency, which has been in effect since it was endorsed by the Council of Ministers in mid-February, was first approved with 346 votes for 88 against and seven abstentions. Later the number was corrected to 395 votes
There were fears that the proclamation would be refuted by the representatives. When the speaker announced that the law was approved by a majority vote, it was accompanied by heavy applause from those who supported the endorsement.
Opposition leaders, especially those in the Diaspora were advocating for the parliament to vote against the state of emergency. According to the Speaker, because there were 8 of the 547 members not present 339 votes were needed for a two-thirds majority. There were concerns raised that 98 votes were of the 539 potential votes were unaccounted for. Only 441 votes were recorded during the session at first. However this number has also raised to 490 later.
This was confusing because most of the members attended the session. The outgoing PM and the potential future PM from OPDO did not attend but there were very few others who were absent, according to observers.
Before the parliament went to vote several questions and opinions on the proclamation were debated by members. One parliament member asked if the state of emergency period could be reduced to three months rather than six , but Attorney General Getachew Ambaye did not address that question..
The state of emergency proclamation suspended the practice of most of basic rights like peaceful demonstrations. Another member raised the issue of the upcoming local elections in May. The parliamentarian felt that this would limit the amount of campaigning people could engage in.
Getachew agreed that the state of emergency would affect the city elections but said it was crucial to bring peace to the country. He added that they would address the issue later.
A week ago Workneh Gebeyehu (PhD), Minister of Foreign Affairs, hinted that the martial law would be lifted when the new PM was elected.
A parliament board to oversee the emergency measures was also criticized by some of the members, but approved by majority vote, with nine against and 24 abstentions.
Most of the members served during the previous state of emergency period which ended last August. Tadess Hordofa, was tapped as chairman of the parliamentary board formed to oversee the emergency measures.
Many western nations have expressed concern about the state of emergency.
SANCTION STRENGTHENS?
It seems a number of countries are quite capable of surviving sanctions. Some of them not only survive sanctions but also tend to strengthen their overall domestic capacities. By and large, it is the smaller nations of the world system that disproportionately suffer from sanctions imposed on them by the powerful. Eritrea is one example. The larger countries of the world that operate under sanctions can potentially use this forced regime as an impetus to develop local capacity in various sectors. Sanction can also increase the resilience of a society. Importantly, the whole scheme of sanctions highlights the precarious and unpredictable nature of the reigning modern world order! We will look at four countries that are more than surviving sanctions!
The Iranian state has been under sanctions of one sort or another for a long time. This oil rich nation, not only managed to survive, but also accomplished its main objective of becoming an advanced military power. For example, Iran’s indigenously built missile technology is quite sophisticated. The country has developed long-range missile systems that can reach its potential adversaries, namely Saudi Arabia and Israel. This weapon system seems to have deterred provocation. Its naval power is also not to be underestimated. Sanction might have retarded the realization of potentials in other sectors of the economy, but it has not done much to make the country a military weakling, the very opposite of what the sanction imposers had in mind. The Islamic Republic of Iran doesn’t seem to like the whole idea of nuclear weaponry. Its nuclear weapons program was already in the process of being phased out when the west started probing the issue. Sanction or not, the Iranian tech sector is much more advanced compared to its nemesis, Saudi Arabia. See the articles on page 46.
By the same token North Korea also seems to have achieved its main objective, the development of nuclear weaponry. North Korea is now a recognized nuclear power with a working ICBM (Inter Continental Ballistic Missile). Again, the sanction imposers’ main desire of halting its nuclear program has failed. No doubt, sanctions have caused some difficulties, both to the government as well as the citizenry. Practically sandwiched between China and Russia, the Korean peninsula is a very strategic region. Any major conflict there is bound to involve these two superpowers, most likely fighting on the same side, against outside adversaries. One has to study the history of the 1950s Korean war to appreciate the determination of the North Koreans to come up with meaningful deterrent (WMD) against real and potential adversaries!
Venezuela seems rather unprepared to the sanctions imposed on it by the powerful. Its oil revenue, on which it relies for most of its foreign exchange earnings, has dwindled significantly. The powerful nations also want ‘regime change’ in Venezuela. In this regard, the proven ‘color revolution’ might well be used as one options to dislodge the government in power! Amongst the sanctions, the unavailability of financial facilitation by western bankers is one. This imposition has led the Venezuelan government to develop a cryptocurrency backed by its oil and gold. The project is to help loosen the grip of western bankers that is creating havoc to Venezuela’s trade and investment. Like Iran, Venezuela is determined to sell most of its oil in other currencies, besides the dollar. It is also bartering its oil for goods/services with potential allies, like China! The ramification of using cryptocurrencies in the trading of essential commodities will be massive, to say the least. This scheme has a potential to derail the dominance of fictitious currencies in world trade! See the articles on page 41.
Russia is probably the one country that has benefitted immensely from sanctions imposed on it by the west. See Robert’ article next column and Orlov’s on page 28. Russia is now the number one wheat exporting country in the world. The systemic delinking of its fossil fuel’s sales from the mighty dollar has also undermined the dollar’s reserve status. Today China and Russia, the number one buyer and seller of fossil fuel respectively, are using their own currencies for the transactions! This is very significant as it creates less demand for the dollar in the world, thereby making it difficult to issue debts (US Treasury bills) without qualm! In the sphere of technology, Russia has always been amongst the leaders, particularly when it comes to military hard wares. See the articles on page 44. Since the sanctions, Russia’s weapons sales have skyrocketed. Some of the new military gadgets that can destroy missiles, (like the US cruise missiles) are being sold to friendly nations, whose numbers are increasing by the day! In the words of the US general, ‘… an increase in Russian surface-to-air missile systems in the region threatens our access and ability to dominate the airspace,’ Votel, Commander of the US Central Command.
Both Russia and China, are working to become independent of the SWIFT system (electronic international financial transactions, dominated by the west). Locally developed scheme are in the offing in both countries. Moreover, the BRICS, which include Russia and China, have embarked on the project of developing an alternative Internet system! Fitch, the rating agency, has raised Russia’s bond to a triple A status! All in all, sanctions don’t seem to work, perhaps the old adage might come here handy: “Necessity is the mother of invention.” Good Day!
Will we have a PM shortly?
The political arena has been volatile since Prime Minister hailemariam Dessalegn announced his resigned a couple of weeks ago.
Following his resignation the Council of Ministers imposed a second state of emergency just six months after the 10 month old state emergency was lifted by the parliament, while prominent political figures were also freed over the last few weeks. The ratification of the state of emergency by the legislators was one of the most anticipated incidents of the week.
On the public holiday celebrating the Victory of Adwa the parliament endorsed the proclamation by majority vote of the parliament in which all seats are held by the ruling coalition Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and its regional party allies.
The process of the parliament’s ratification of the state of emergency proclamation has made the choice of the new PM even more highly anticipated. Political commentators and pundits recalled that it was unusual for the parliament not to unanimously approve the measure. They said that the Friday session of the parliament indicates there is difference between members of the ruling coalition which includes four ethnic based parties from Oromia, Amhara, Tigrai and SNNP.
According to Abadula Gemeda, Speaker of the House, 346 members of the parliament supported the state of emergency proclamation, while 88 members stood against the proclamation and a handful of members abstained. Political commentators said that the standing against such crucial proclamation is a new incident observed at the parliament. They remembered that there are some similar incidents which have occurred in the past few months at the parliament. But they said that the proclamations at the parliament and opposed by significant members previously are not in the same league as the state of emergency law. They said that this makes the assignment of the new PM even more difficult. “The incident that occurred on Friday has made the election of the PM more uncertain since things are going against the culture of the ruling front,” they added. “The Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO) has replaced the prominent and well accepted leader of the party for the sake of attaining the top position in the federal government,” experts said.
OPDO has replaced Lemma Megersa, who served OPDO for two years after replacing Muktar Kedir. He is charismatic and will grab the attention of the public not only in his region but in other parts of the country, according to experts.
Even though Lemma had a lot of support in his party and the public he was replaced by Abiy Ahmed (PhD), another popular leader of OPDO who is also a member of parliament. The power substitution in OPDO directly indicated that the Oromo ethnic party, with the biggest public representation in the country wants to sit at the head of government by replacing the outgoing PM Hailemariam Desalegn. At the same time the Southern People’s Democratic Movement (SPDM) also wants to grab the PM position, according to political commentators. The Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) the other member of EPRDF that represents the second biggest ethnic group in the country is also expected to compete for the premier post.
No party has officially disclosed that they are interested in the premiership, but Lemma has hinted that was replaced as the leader of his party so that they could have a good chance of obtaining the PM position.
Experts that asked not to be mentioned told Capital that the power struggle for the PM position has become very clear. They said that it is also clear that there is not a common consensus within the political elites of the ruling party. They argued that the latest session at the parliament is a good indication that there is no consensus among the ruling front.
They said that this disagreement will delay the assignment of the new PM for an unspecified period.
“Now the appointment of new Prime Minister will be the big topic in the country’s political situation,” they said.
“I believe one thing that if the ruling collation does not come with a common understanding about the next PM, the appointment of the new PM will take time,” an expert told Capital.
The previous collective understanding in the party has not been seen in the past few months, according to experts. They said that the situation being looked at closely since tension increased between the Oromia and Somali regions when the special forces for the Somali region took forceful action along the border areas of Oromia.
“Now the difference between the different groups is wider than the past which makes the assignment of the new PM more difficult,” they said.
They said that the ruling front stated that it would undertake a council meeting, made up of 45 representatives from each of the 45 ethnically based parties. However, nothing has been heard of the outcome of the meeting or even if it has occurred yet or been postponed. They added that the congress expected to be held this month has been postponed for an undefined period. “This shows that things are uncertain and could change at any time,” they added.
