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Can the deep colonial differences over Africa’s great river be bridged?

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Can the deep colonial differences over Africa’s great river be bridged?

Egypt could lose control over the Nile waters it has maintained for almost a century thanks to colonial-era treaties

This month, a long-expected agreement on the Nile has come into force, and the wealth of its waters will now be shared among many countries. Egypt, which heavily depends on the Nile, strongly opposes the agreement. However, the time of colonial-era treaties seems to have come to an end, so both upstream and downstream countries must work together to find a fair and equitable solution that is beneficial to everyone.

We Africans must understand how colonial-era treaties still fuel conflict over the Nile’s waters, favoring what was a Western-dominated agricultural production flow on the continent. We should fight for a Pan-African approach, embodied by the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement, to replace outdated entitlements with cooperative water management. By embracing shared stewardship, Egypt and Ethiopia can lead Africa in transforming the Nile from a source of discord into a lifeline that fosters unity and regional resilience.

In October 2024, the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), or Entebbe Agreement, was finally ratified by six countries, bringing it into force. This watershed agreement, which includes Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi, and South Sudan, could reshape how Africa’s longest river is shared.

However, Egypt and Sudan, two downstream nations heavily reliant on the Nile, have rejected the CFA, continuing to assert historical rights rooted in colonial-era treaties. These treaties reflect a damaging legacy of foreign interference, one that has stoked conflict and hampered development. As the effects of climate change intensify, Africa faces a pivotal choice: Remain divided by outdated entitlements or embrace Pan-African cooperation that redefines the Nile as a shared lifeline for everyone.

A colonial legacy of discord and inequity

At the heart of the Nile dispute is a set of colonial-era treaties that awarded the lion’s share of the Nile’s resources to Egypt and Sudan. Chief among these is the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty, negotiated by the British colonial authorities, which allocated nearly 48 billion cubic meters of the Nile’s annual flow to Egypt, with no input from other riparian nations. This arrangement was further cemented by the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, which granted Egypt and Sudan 55.5 billion and 18.5 billion cubic meters of water, respectively, without consulting other Nile Basin countries. This left upstream nations, including Ethiopia – where 85% of the Nile’s water originates – without a say in the river’s management.

The harmful effects of these colonial-era agreements resonate to this day. As a result of this exclusionary framework, upstream countries have been unable to develop water infrastructure that could support their own growth. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), for instance, has become a focal point of tension between Egypt and Ethiopia. Ethiopia views the GERD as essential for its development and energy needs, while Egypt perceives it as a threat to its water security. Egypt’s reliance on colonial-era water rights underscores how a legacy of external interference has driven a wedge between African nations, creating a zero-sum game over a resource that could otherwise foster regional unity.

The role of the Nile Basin initiative

Efforts to foster cooperative management of the Nile began with the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 1999, which brought together the river’s 11 riparian states to promote sustainable development and equitable water sharing. The NBI aimed to address the deep-seated mistrust among Nile countries, setting the stage for negotiations that would eventually lead to the CFA. Although the CFA represents the most significant achievement of the NBI to date, its implementation has been stymied by Egypt’s refusal to abandon colonial-era treaties that enshrine its dominance over the Nile.

The recent CFA ratification by six countries signals a clear desire among Nile Basin nations to move beyond the constraints of the past. By emphasizing “equitable and reasonable utilization,” the CFA embodies a forward-thinking approach to resource sharing that is based on the principles of international law, particularly the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses. As Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated, South Sudan’s ratification is a “historic moment” for the region, one that lays the foundation for a legal framework to govern Nile resources fairly and sustainably.

Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt’s Pan-Africanist leader in the 1950s-1960s, championed African unity in resource sharing, including water, through both diplomacy and radical politics. Revered across Africa, even in Ethiopia, he remains a symbol of liberation. Egypt could leverage Nasser’s legacy to foster cooperative ties with Nile Basin countries, transforming his enduring influence into a modern framework for equitable and sustainable water management.

The Pan-African imperative

Pan-Africanism – the idea that African nations should work together in the spirit of unity and mutual support – is essential for addressing the Nile’s complex challenges. Colonial powers drew borders, made treaties, and divided resources in ways that benefited their interests, often pitting African nations against one another. A Pan-African approach offers an alternative vision, one in which Africa’s longest river is managed as a shared resource that sustains all its people, regardless of political boundaries.

A pan-African solution to the Nile’s challenges would entail a cooperative governance model that treats the river as a common resource, much like the EU’s approach to managing cross-border rivers. Instead of viewing the Nile as a battleground for national interests, riparian countries could establish a Nile Basin Commission to oversee water allocation, promote joint infrastructure projects, and support environmental conservation efforts. This would create a platform for open dialogue, mitigating the risk of conflict and fostering trust among Nile nations.

Climate change and population growth

The urgency of a Pan-African approach is underscored by the looming threats of climate change and population growth. The Nile Basin is already feeling the effects of a warming climate. Rising temperatures are expected to increase evaporation rates and reduce water availability across the region. A study by the World Resources Institute estimates that water stress in the Nile Basin could increase by 60% by 2040, making cooperative water management even more crucial.

Additionally, the Nile Basin’s population is projected to grow from 257 million in 2020 to nearly 400 million by 2050. As the demand for food, water, and energy rises, the potential for resource-driven conflicts will only intensify. In the face of these challenges, a Pan-African approach to water sharing could help Nile countries avoid the pitfalls of unilateral action. By investing in joint infrastructure projects, such as shared irrigation systems and water conservation initiatives, Nile Basin nations could address their collective water needs while minimizing environmental degradation. Collaborative efforts to adapt agriculture to climate impacts, promote drought-resistant crops, and improve irrigation efficiency would not only bolster food security but also reduce the strain on the Nile.

Egypt’s position

While Egypt’s concerns about water security are valid, its reliance on colonial-era treaties to uphold its claims is increasingly untenable. According to the UN, over 90% of Egypt’s water needs are met by the Nile, making it one of the world’s most water-dependent nations. However, by rejecting the CFA and insisting on historical entitlements, Egypt risks isolating itself from the broader Pan-African movement toward self-determination and collective resource management.

For Egypt, embracing a Pan-African approach to the Nile could yield long-term benefits. Rather than viewing the CFA as a threat, Egypt could engage with other Nile Basin countries to ensure its water security through joint projects and technological innovation. For example, desalination plants and wastewater recycling programs could help diversify Egypt’s water sources, reducing its dependency on the Nile. Furthermore, by investing in shared infrastructure and conservation initiatives, Egypt could position itself as a leader in sustainable water management, aligning itself with the broader African agenda for climate resilience and environmental stewardship.

Moreover, Egypt can partner with Ethiopia and other Nile Basin countries to launch joint agricultural initiatives, such as shared irrigation projects that boost crop yields while conserving water. Additionally, Nile-based industrial and commercial developments, like cooperative fisheries, renewable energy plants, and river transport systems, could enhance regional economies and create sustainable employment opportunities. By investing in these collaborative projects, Egypt would not only secure its own water needs but also help build a Pan-African framework for resource-sharing, fostering stability and prosperity throughout the Nile Basin.

Toward a shared vision for the Nile

The path forward for the Nile Basin is clear: Africa must overcome the legacy of colonialism by forging a new framework for water sharing that prioritizes cooperation over conflict. This requires a willingness among Nile countries to make concessions, to compromise, and to recognize their mutual dependence on this vital resource. The CFA’s principles of equitable use and environmental sustainability provide a foundation upon which to build a shared future, but the hard work of translating these principles into action remains. A Nile Basin Commission, as proposed under the CFA, could serve as a vehicle for achieving this vision.

By establishing binding agreements on water allocation, monitoring the environmental impacts of major projects, and facilitating knowledge exchange, the commission could promote a holistic approach to water management that respects the needs of all riparian states. Additionally, the commission could play a key role in attracting international funding for sustainable development initiatives, such as renewable energy projects and conservation programs, that benefit the entire basin.

The Pan-African solution

The Nile River, like Africa itself, is bound by a complex history of foreign interference and internal division. But it also embodies the potential for unity, for shared prosperity, and for a future in which African nations work together to harness their resources responsibly. As recent ratifications of the CFA show, many Nile Basin countries are ready to embrace a new approach to water sharing, one that looks beyond colonial legacies and focuses on regional solidarity. In the spirit of Pan-Africanism, Nile Basin countries must continue to advocate for an inclusive, equitable, and sustainable framework for managing their shared waters. By doing so, they can ensure that the Nile remains a source of life, not a source of conflict. Africa’s longest river has the potential to be a unifying force, one that brings nations together in the pursuit of a common good. It is up to Africa’s leaders to seize this opportunity and demonstrate to the world that the continent’s future lies not in division, but in unity.

Moussa Ibrahim is Executive Secretary of the African Legacy Foundation, Johannesburg  

Sustaining the business

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Sustaining the business

Whether you run a small or big business, you need to be in control and to be in control you need to follow a certain set of management principles and instruments, which provide you the necessary information to make decisions, informed decisions that is.  Just how much management is required depends on the size of your business. There are many investors who have a good business idea and start off on a small scale. It normally takes time for any business to recover the initial investment and to make some real profit. Let us assume that the new business is beginning to pick up. By this I simply mean that the business is beginning to get customers and sales figures are slowly growing. Tilahun – I am referring to nobody in particular – who started the business is pleased by these developments and is anxiously looking forward to making some profit soon. He is the owner and manager at the same time. He is the boss, it is his business. He has all the information he needs and he makes sure he alone has access to it. After all, others might just run away with it. He keeps all the records, on his stock, his expenses, the income, taxes to be paid, the lot. He also does all the advertising and controls the production process. He is busy. As the business is growing he is now in a position to employ some staff, which he expects will be able to help him a bit. He needs a secretary, a book keeper and a few sales girls. As he cannot afford higher salaries, he goes for cheaper personnel, who are not really qualified for the job, one of them a distant relative who has no job. They will catch up, is his assumption. To his disappointment, they keep doing things wrong though. He is frequently confronted with blunders by any of them. The accounts don’t reconcile, correspondence is not followed up, customers complain about the service. Tilahun gets upset every time something goes wrong and cries that it is easier to do it himself. He hires and fires but the situation does not change for the better. Until he managed to get a temporary accountant, who knows what she is doing. After some time, the accountant makes a few suggestions how to improve the administration. Tilahun gets upset again: “How dare you interfere with the way I manage things here! This is my business! Just do your work!” The accountant leaves the business and things go back to what they were before. Tilahun’s business has the potential to grow, which is what he wants as well. But how? It just doesn’t seem to work. The customers in their own way contribute to this state of affairs. They want to see the boss; they want to talk to the owner, who takes the decisions.

If a business has the potential to grow, the pace of the growth will be limited by the amount of management time that is available. And with Tilahun doing it all by himself, it is clear that he doesn’t have much time left. As long as he holds on to this way of running his business, things will not get any better. So what are some of the factors that stand in the way? Well, some business owners simply enjoy the position and the power they have created for themselves and they find it difficult to share this with others. We also see often that the workers that are employed are indeed not qualified for the job. This may save money, but doesn’t help in the long run. As employees make mistakes, the owner/manager may find it easier to keep on doing things himself. Not everybody has the gift to teach and coach staff how to do it right. Disappointments and mistakes in the past sustain the state of affairs. Finally, the employees feel uncertain themselves. They are afraid to make mistakes and they do not want to take responsibility. They continue referring every decision and initiative to the boss. What can be done? In the first place, more time to manage the business needs to be created, by employing professionals who know their job and who can manage their part of the business. A growing business needs professionals like a production manager, a marketing manager and a finance director. Secondly, they must be included in making strategic decisions for the company. The habit of working with a management team needs to be developed. With a professional management team there is more time for management and thus a better chance to do things right. It will allow the owner to concentrate more on leading the company. Remember, leadership is “doing the right things” and management is “doing the things right”. With a professional management team in place, responsibilities can now be delegated. Delegation means entrusting authority to somebody else. It is here where most business owners fear to let go and find it difficult to trust others enough to transfer power. And yet, without delegation the future will not get any better. A few suggestions here:

  • Make sure your employees have the capacity to carry out delegated tasks: hire professionals.
  • Accept mistakes. Only by making mistakes we will learn.
  • Really entrust authority to them. Don’t hover around or go checking behind their backs.
  • Include them in your management decisions; develop a management team.
  • Provide the support and information they require. Ask: “How can I help?”

Finally, remember that without proper management, there is no real future, no guarantee for continuation. I have seen many projects, organizations, businesses collapse after the initiator left. Even if it was running well under the sole management of the owner, it collapsed because there was nobody to take over, nobody who knew how to run the business, who the customers were, how the accounts were organized, where the materials came from, what to do in case of a brake down. And that is not what we want, if we want to sustain the business. 

Ton Haverkort

ton.haverkort@gmail.com

The Complex Interplay of Gold Production and Conflict

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The Complex Interplay of Gold Production and Conflict

Gold is one of the most valuable natural resources in the world, driving significant economic activity and wealth generation. However, in many parts of the world, gold production has also been linked to violent conflict, environmental degradation, and social unrest. Understanding the complex relationship between gold production and conflict requires examining the geopolitical, economic, and social dynamics that connect these two phenomena.

Gold has been a source of power, wealth, and conflict for millennia. From the Roman Empire to the Spanish conquests in the Americas, the pursuit of gold has often been tied to colonial expansion, war, and exploitation. Empires used gold to finance wars and consolidate power, while colonizers extracted gold from indigenous lands, often leading to displacement, violence, and social upheaval.

In modern times, the “resource curse” theory helps explain how countries rich in valuable resources like gold often experience higher levels of conflict. According to this theory, an abundance of natural resources can fuel corruption, weaken institutions, and provoke internal strife as different factions vie for control over these resources. Gold, as a high-value commodity, can exacerbate these dynamics, particularly in regions with weak governance and fragile economies.

Africa provides some of the clearest examples of how gold production can be closely linked to conflict. Countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Sudan, and Mali have large reserves of gold, but these resources have often become intertwined with ongoing violence and political instability.

In the DRC, gold mining has long been associated with conflict. Rebel groups and armed militias have seized control of mining areas, using revenues from gold to fund their operations. This creates a vicious cycle where violence and instability allow these groups to maintain control over gold production, which in turn finances further violence. The International Peace Information Service (IPIS) estimates that a significant portion of gold produced in eastern DRC is extracted from conflict-affected areas. The smuggling of gold to international markets through neighbouring countries like Uganda and Rwanda has also contributed to prolonging the conflict.

In Sudan, particularly the Darfur region, gold mining has fuelled violence between rival groups and militias. The gold rush in Darfur has attracted various actors, including government forces and rebel groups, all vying for control over lucrative mining areas. Similar dynamics exist in Mali, where the rise of jihadist insurgencies in the north and central parts of the country has coincided with an increase in illegal gold mining. Armed groups often exploit gold mines to fund their operations, creating a dangerous link between gold production and insurgency.

In Latin America, gold production is also linked to conflict, though often in the context of illegal mining, environmental degradation, and organized crime. Countries like Colombia, Venezuela, and Peru have significant gold deposits, but much of the mining is conducted illegally, often by criminal organizations.

In Colombia, gold mining has historically been tied to armed groups, including paramilitaries and guerrilla forces like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). These groups used gold mining to finance their operations, even after the official demobilization of FARC in 2016. Illegal gold mining continues to thrive in regions formerly controlled by armed groups, and it is often associated with forced labor, violence, and the displacement of local communities.

Venezuela provides another example where gold production fuels conflict. The country’s gold-rich regions, particularly in the southern state of Bolívar, have become hotbeds for illegal mining. Armed criminal syndicates, known as “sindicatos,” control large parts of the mining areas, often in collusion with corrupt military officials. These groups frequently engage in violent confrontations to maintain control over mining operations, and the human rights abuses in these areas have been widely documented.

Moreover, gold mining in the Amazon region, especially in countries like Brazil and Peru, has sparked conflicts between illegal miners and indigenous communities. The environmental degradation caused by illegal mining, particularly mercury pollution and deforestation, has had devastating effects on local ecosystems and people. Indigenous communities, who depend on the land for their livelihoods, have resisted the encroachment of miners, leading to violent clashes and social tensions.

The global demand for gold plays a significant role in perpetuating these conflicts. Gold is a highly liquid asset, and it is often used as a means of laundering money or financing illicit activities. The gold supply chain is complex and opaque, making it difficult to trace the origins of gold, especially when it is sourced from conflict zones or illegal mining operations.

Efforts have been made to address these issues, most notably through the development of international frameworks like the Kimberley Process, which was initially designed to prevent the trade of conflict diamonds. Similar initiatives have been proposed for gold, including the OECD’s Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas. However, enforcing these standards remains challenging, as the gold trade involves a vast network of informal and illegal actors.

Gold production is a double-edged sword. While it has the potential to generate significant economic benefits, it can also fuel conflict, corruption, and environmental destruction, particularly in regions with weak governance. Addressing the complex relationship between gold and conflict requires a multi-faceted approach that includes strengthening governance in gold-producing countries, promoting transparency in the global gold market, and supporting local communities affected by mining operations.

International organizations, governments, and the private sector all have roles to play in ensuring that gold production contributes to sustainable development rather than fuelling violence and instability. By promoting responsible mining practices, enforcing legal frameworks, and supporting peace-building efforts in conflict-affected regions, it is possible to break the cycle of conflict and create a more equitable and sustainable gold production system. 

WHITE SWANS & WHITE ELEPHANTS

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WHITE SWANS & WHITE ELEPHANTS

About a decade ago the idea of encountering a ‘black swan’ was again brought to mainstream discourse by Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s bestseller, the ‘Black Swan’. This time around however, the black swan notion was employed to illuminate unexpected scenarios that can come about from within or from without the human collective. Taleb used an analogy from the old zoologists of the 18th century. At the time, the fixation within the community of ornithologist was; ‘all swans are white’! The intent of Taleb’s ‘Black Swan’s’ was to shake up established routines. As a player in the securities market, his interests were mostly focused on such matters as; survivorship bias, blindness to randomness, fat tails etc.!

Most of the strategies currently employed in the financial markets have innate pitfalls. They have tendencies to follow what others are doing, the ‘herd mentality’. In addition, these models rely on abstruse mathematical derivations with dubious results/values. To start with, mathematics cannot really be trusted in the feeble world of humanity. Yet, econometrics insists that it is better positioned to understand what is going on in the real world of exchanges; commodity, financial, labor, etc. We beg to differ! To those who are befuddled with this, we suggest listening to those who actually know what they are talking about. ‘As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; as far as they are certain they do not refer to reality’ Albert Einstein. The shortcoming of economics is not limited to the excessive utilization analytical methods and brute quantification. On this point Taleb has something to add.  ‘Taleb has called for cancellation of the Nobel Prize in Economics, saying that the damage from economic theories can be devastating. He opposes top-down knowledge as an academic illusion.’ To be sure, Alfred Nobel did not bestow a Prize for economics. It was the Bank of Sweden in 1968, who took it on its own, to concoct an annual prize in economics, bearing the name ‘Nobel’. What bankers do to look respectable!

One must clarify the ‘Black Swan’ animal before the establishment completely abuses it, like the above story of ‘Economics Nobel’. For example, the current Covid-19 pandemic is not a black swan event according to Taleb. This is because it has been anticipated by many long before its actual occurrence. Just because the MSM (Main Stream Media) and establishment pundits are not interested in issues, it doesn’t mean things have not been studied or anticipated. For instance, there are plenty of Yemeni children who are currently dying because of the ongoing war of aggression. Yet, the MSM is not interested in covering such cases, while fully engaged in massive propaganda campaigns about all and sundry! There are plenty of laboratories in the world that are fully engaged in the research and production of bio-weaponry. They employ thousands of scientists whose main occupation is to come up with man-made pestilences/WMD. Almost all of these pestilences are intended to do considerable damage to some (ethnic specific) or even all of the human species! So if an incident involving a bioweapon happens, either by accident or by design, can one honestly claim it to be a black swan event? To those familiar with the workings of the existing world order, projects of these nature are a dime a dozen. The new nuclear weapons program of the USA, reinvigorated by the Nobel Peace Prize winning president, Barack Obama, is a case in point. Incidentally and like many other international treaties, the USA has also withdrawn from the bioweapon treaty, which it signed in 1972. Humanity cannot remain naïve to the potential consequences of such ongoing evil projects.

In the business world, white elephants are defined as those capital wasting useless investments or mal-investments. We cite some examples from the real estate industry. There are about 90 million vacant housing units in China all brand new and still waiting for occupancy, in a country that is now undergoing depopulation! There are many brand new ‘ghost cities’ in China that await massive residents who will be eager to engage in the business of family formation. There are about 30 million residential units unused in the USA. Even though many such properties in the world do not earn incomes commensurate with their asset prices or even their initial investment costs, they continue to significantly appreciate in value, albeit vacantly. If these assets are seriously devalued, there might be a top down revolution, this time to be led, paradoxically (don’t laugh) by the upper classes (asset owning classes) of the world system! Even the African cities (Nairobi, etc.,) are full of such white elephants; after all, we Africans do not make our own policies, but only follow, rather blindly, what is ordered by the masters of the world system!

White elephants can easily give rise to white swans, trivially. For example, there is now an impending catastrophe of sand shortage all over the world. It is already studied and is sufficiently anticipated. Can the climax of this disaster be labeled a black swan event? There are plenty of other mal-investments on the planet, primarily caused by the global fiat currency system. The overextended industry of travel and tourism, which is now the largest industry in the world, has become an epitome of mal-investment. From Miami Beach to Mombasa Beach the number of white elephants (hotels, condos, guest houses, airbnb, etc.) are so mindboggling, one might be forced to doze into the world of pink elephants! Since investment capital can be had for a whistle in a fiat system (so long as one is connected), every Tom, Tori and Tinny can become a respected investor, by the measure of crony capitalism, compliment of the bankster-cum-state cabals. The built-in inflation of the global system discourages savings and keeps the sheeple (human mass) pedaling on a fixed bicycle or running on a conveyor belt of real estate investment. What the ongoing depression will bring to inflated asset prices (everything bubble; such as the global real estate, securities, etc.), is something that remains to be seen.

This was first published in April 2020

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