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Ethiopia’s debt crisis: beyond the billions

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A billion-dollar financing announcement can sound like an economic breakthrough. For a country managing competing demands for foreign currency, public services and investment, it can offer genuine breathing room. But Ethiopia’s debt crisis will not be resolved by the size of the next funding package. It will be resolved by whether financing strengthens the country’s ability to earn, produce and meet obligations without repeatedly sacrificing essential services.

The distinction is clear in Ethiopia’s relationship with the International Development Association, the World Bank’s concessional financing arm. A joint IMF–World Bank assessment reported positive IDA net transfers of US$1.5 billion in 2023/24, compared with US$1.7 billion in 2022/23 and US$1.1 billion in 2021/22. Those figures demonstrate substantial support, but they are neither a measure of total external financing nor proof that every dollar generated lasting development gains.

Ethiopia needs a more disciplined public conversation about debt. Financing approvals, disbursements, grants, repayments and debt relief are different things. Combining them into an impressive headline may serve a communications strategy, but it does little to explain the government’s actual financial position.

The same assessment recorded US$3.2 billion in approved IDA arrangements during 2023/24. It would be misleading to subtract the US$1.5 billion in net transfers and describe the difference as missing or undelivered money. Approvals may finance spending over several years, while net transfers account for outgoing debt-service payments.

Nor should positive net transfers be described as money physically remaining inside Ethiopia. Financing may pay overseas suppliers for medicines, equipment or construction services. The relevant question is whether those purchases deliver benefits sufficient to justify their costs.

The government should publish a regular, accessible financing statement showing commitments, actual receipts, grants, principal repayments, interest, arrears and rescheduled obligations. Existing reporting should become easier for citizens and Parliament to interrogate.

There has been meaningful restructuring progress. The Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable’s October 14 report says Ethiopia has finalised 11 of 14 bilateral agreements with members of its Official Creditor Committee. Its preliminary Eurobond agreement, together with other creditor agreements, covers about 75 per cent of external commercial debt. However, the bond exchange remains pending.

These distinctions matter. An agreement in principle is not a completed transaction. A postponed payment is not necessarily forgiven debt. Relief can reduce immediate pressure without eliminating future obligations.

Public officials should explain what restructuring changes: payment dates, interest costs, principal obligations and exposure to future shocks. Citizens deserve to understand whether relief creates lasting fiscal space or mainly moves payments into later years.

The answer is not to reject borrowing altogether. Ethiopia needs investment, and well-designed concessional financing can support essential services and productive infrastructure. The danger is borrowing without credible implementation plans, realistic operating budgets or a clear relationship between investment and future economic returns.

The 2025 assessment identified weak export earnings and concentrated repayment obligations as central vulnerabilities. It also found that more than 90 per cent of the domestic debt held by the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia against state-owned enterprises and transferred liabilities was associated with three troubled enterprises that were not regularly servicing their loans.

That history demands stronger project scrutiny. Proposed investments should face independent assessments of costs, demand, procurement risks and maintenance requirements. Projects expected to generate foreign currency require particularly careful testing: projected exports are not guaranteed receipts.

Completed infrastructure must function. Equipment without technicians, industrial facilities without reliable inputs and projects without viable customers cannot provide a dependable foundation for repayment.

When external financing becomes scarce, domestic borrowing can appear to offer an easier alternative. But changing the lender does not automatically remove the burden.

The assessment reported that Ethiopia relied mainly on Treasury bills and central-bank advances in 2023/24 amid scarce external financing. It also warned that market-based domestic financing would bring higher borrowing costs and refinancing risks during the transition.

Debt management must therefore protect the wider economy. Banks need room to finance productive businesses, while fiscal adjustment should preserve essential health, education and social-protection spending. Raising revenue is necessary, but collection must be fair and accompanied by visible improvements in public expenditure.

Ethiopia’s exit from repeated debt distress requires more than successful negotiations with creditors. It needs accountability across the full borrowing cycle: who authorises a loan, how funds are spent, what assets or services result and how repayment will be financed.

Creditors also have responsibilities. They should support timely restructuring, disclose terms and avoid arrangements that complicate future debt resolution. Domestic authorities must match that transparency with credible priorities and scrutiny.

The objective is not a country that never borrows. It is a country that borrows deliberately, spends effectively and can explain the results. That would be a more convincing breakthrough than another announcement measured only in billions.

African debt restructurings advance

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Ghana and Zambia are nearing the completion of their debt restructurings, while Ethiopia’s bond exchange remains pending and Senegal has requested debt treatment under the Common Framework, according to a new Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable report.

The seventh co-chairs’ progress report, published on October 14, says most restructuring cases initiated in 2021–2022 are now largely complete. However, negotiations with remaining commercial creditors continue, and Senegal’s request presents a new test of efforts to make debt relief faster and more predictable.

The report identifies progress in creditor coordination and the implementation of agreements, but warns that settling smaller outstanding claims can still be lengthy, complicated and costly. It calls for stronger information sharing, clearer restructuring options and greater transparency in complex financing arrangements.

Ghana has finalised 16 of 25 bilateral agreements with official creditors represented on its Official Creditor Committee. Negotiations continue with remaining commercial creditors whose claims are not held in bonds and represent less than five per cent of the debt covered by the restructuring.

Ghana also completed the sixth and final review of its IMF-supported programme in July, alongside approval of a 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument, a non-financing arrangement supporting continued policy engagement.

Zambia has resolved more than 94 per cent of debt within its restructuring perimeter—the claims included in the debt-treatment exercise. Remaining negotiations involve a small group of commercial creditors with non-bond claims.

Ten of Zambia’s 16 bilateral agreements with official creditors have been finalised. Having completed its IMF-supported programme in January, the country has requested a follow-up programme to consolidate stabilisation gains and address continuing economic challenges.

Ethiopia’s restructuring is described as well advanced, with 11 of 14 bilateral agreements with members of its Official Creditor Committee finalised.

The country reached an agreement in principle with an ad hoc committee of Eurobond holders on June 29. On August 21, Ethiopian authorities announced that official creditors had determined the proposed bond restructuring terms were consistent with comparability-of-treatment requirements.

Together with agreements reached with other creditors, that preliminary deal covers about 75 per cent of Ethiopia’s total external commercial debt. The bond exchange itself, however, remained pending at the time of the report.

That distinction separates an agreement on proposed terms from completion of the transaction. The report identifies Ethiopia as the exception among the advanced restructuring cases it discusses, with the others now negotiating only remaining commercial claims.

Senegal has requested debt treatment under the Common Framework, the mechanism used in the restructuring cases of Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia.

IMF staff and Senegalese authorities reached a staff-level agreement on September 1 for a 36-month Extended Credit Facility arrangement worth approximately US$2.2 billion. The proposed programme remains subject to IMF management and Executive Board approval, corrective actions supporting a waiver request in a misreporting case, and financing assurances from partners.

Senegal has presented its debt-treatment strategy and begun engaging creditor groups. The IMF hosted a meeting between the authorities and external creditors on October 6.

The roundtable supports offering debtor countries standardised restructuring options to help resolve smaller outstanding commercial claims. These would need to meet debt-sustainability targets, IMF programme requirements and comparability-of-treatment expectations—the principle used to assess whether different creditor groups contribute appropriately to debt relief.

The report also encourages parallel negotiations with official and private creditors, where consistent with the borrower’s strategy, rather than waiting for one group to finish before engaging another.

Long delays can leave creditor groups negotiating against different economic forecasts. The report says improved economic prospects should not automatically allow late-settling private creditors to provide less relief than comparability requirements demand. Conversely, a deteriorating outlook may require greater relief to restore sustainability.

For countries whose debt is sustainable but whose repayments constrain development spending, the report highlights the IMF–World Bank three-pillar approach: domestic reforms, external financial support and measures to reduce debt-service burdens. Countries requiring restructuring are not included in that approach.

Côte d’Ivoire and Angola have executed debt-for-education swaps under a joint framework, generating fiscal savings while supporting education commitments. A guarantee structure combining World Bank and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency instruments has also been used in Côte d’Ivoire, Angola and Rwanda to improve private-financing terms.

The report places transparency among its next priorities, particularly for total return swaps and other complex transactions that can complicate restructuring and obscure borrowing costs. It calls for stronger debt-management capacity alongside disclosure, stressing that transparency alone cannot eliminate financial risks.

Optasia partners with ETTA to expand credit access in Ethiopia

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Optasia, a global fintech company specializing in AI-powered credit-scoring services, has partnered with the Ethiopian technology firm ETTA Technology. This collaboration aims to enhance access to credit for local merchants and small businesses across Ethiopia.

This strategic partnership aligns with the rapid expansion of digital financial services and specifically targets micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). The goal is to help these businesses overcome traditional barriers to obtaining bank loans.

ETTA Solutions PLC provides technology solutions designed to modernize business operations, streamline payment systems, and organize commercial data.

Temesgen Gebrehiwot, CEO of ETTA, informed Capital that the partnership with Optasia seeks to enable creditworthiness assessments for merchants based on their daily financial transactions.

According to reports published in July 2026, Optasia’s planned expansion into Ethiopia and Egypt is part of a broader strategy to extend credit accessibility across underserved African markets.

A primary objective of the partnership is to establish an automated underwriting framework that evaluates creditworthiness by analyzing merchants’ digital transaction histories.

In Ethiopia, many small merchants conduct daily business transactions but lack formal financial statements. Most track sales manually in paper ledgers or operate primarily in cash, making it challenging for conventional banks to accurately assess their actual cash flow.

To address this challenge, ETTA developed Zuriya, a digital management platform that enables merchants to log sales, manage payments, and systematically record business data.

According to ETTA, Zuriya processed over 120 billion birr in transaction volume in its first year, onboarding more than 3,000 merchants. The company reported that participating merchants experienced over a 5% increase in business activity.

ETTA emphasized that the joint credit-scoring model will integrate this operational data with other key business metrics to reliably estimate repayment capabilities.

However, Temesgen clarified that achieving a favorable credit score does not guarantee immediate loan approval. Banks will still need to perform due diligence regarding repayment capacity, loan terms, and regulatory compliance.

Limited access to commercial bank credit remains a major bottleneck for private sector growth in Ethiopia. Small businesses critically require working capital to purchase inventory, acquire equipment, and scale operations.

Historically, obstacles such as insufficient tangible collateral, a lack of verifiable credit history, and informal record-keeping have prevented many merchants from securing bank financing.

AI-driven credit assessment systems offer an alternative mechanism to evaluate cash flow dynamics, unlocking financial opportunities for businesses unable to satisfy conventional banking criteria.

Optasia leverages AI algorithms and mobile data to deliver micro-loans, working capital financing, and other digital credit products targeting unbanked and underbanked populations and businesses.

For its part, ETTA delivers technology solutions encompassing operational modernization, payment processing, sales recording, and data management. ETTA’s platform ecosystem enables merchants to capture sales data, manage receivables, track revenues and expenses, and maintain compliance with electronic invoicing and tax regulations.

The company also highlighted its recent partnership with Visa, aimed at extending digital payment acceptance beyond large urban enterprises to small shops and informal trade hubs. The planned credit-scoring framework with Optasia builds upon this foundation, bridging commercial data with mainstream financial institutions to expand credit access for merchants.

Optasia’s entry into the Ethiopian market represents a major milestone following the country’s historic decision in 2024 to open its banking sector to foreign investors—a policy initiative intended to attract international capital, foster market competition, and introduce innovative financial services.

Property investment and entrepreneurship

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In today’s economy, starting a business is becoming increasingly challenging. Rising costs, limited access to finance and economic uncertainty make it difficult for many aspiring entrepreneurs to turn their ideas into reality. As a result, finding alternative ways to build wealth and secure the financial resources needed to start a business has become increasingly important. For many investors, real estate offers an opportunity to generate income, build equity and create a foundation for future business ventures. One strategy that has gained attention is the BRRRR method, which stands for Buy, Rehab, Rent, Refinance and Repeat. Although it is primarily used in property investment, it also offers valuable lessons about entrepreneurship, financial management and business development.

At its heart, the BRRRR method is about more than buying and selling property. It involves purchasing an asset, improving its value, generating income from it and using the financial gains to support further investments. When managed properly, this approach can help investors build wealth over time and create opportunities to establish other businesses. However, success depends on careful planning, realistic financial expectations and a clear understanding of the risks involved. Without these, what appears to be a promising investment can quickly become a financial burden.

The BRRRR method follows five main stages: buying, rehabilitating, renting, refinancing and repeating the process. It typically begins with purchasing a property below its potential market value, often because it requires repairs or renovation. The investor improves the property, rents it out to generate regular income and, where appropriate, refinances it based on its new valuation. The money released through refinancing can then be used to fund another investment, allowing the process to continue.

Each stage plays an important role. Buying a property at the right price creates an opportunity to increase its value through renovation. Improving the property makes it more attractive to potential tenants and can increase its rental income. Renting provides a recurring source of revenue, while refinancing may allow the investor to recover some of the capital initially invested. By repeating this process, investors can gradually expand their property portfolios without relying entirely on new personal savings for every purchase.

One of the main connections between the BRRRR method and business creation is the ability to manage and reinvest capital. Many entrepreneurs struggle to obtain the funding needed to start a business. Banks and other lenders often require collateral, a stable financial history or evidence that a proposed business can generate enough income to repay its debts. Building equity through property investment may help entrepreneurs strengthen their financial position and create additional funding opportunities.

Property investment can also create opportunities for businesses that support the real estate sector. Renovation, cleaning, plumbing, landscaping and property maintenance services are all examples of businesses that may benefit from an expanding property portfolio. An investor who develops expertise in these areas could establish a separate company that serves other landlords and property owners, generating income beyond rental payments. In this way, property investment and business creation can complement each other.

Nevertheless, entrepreneurs must understand the difference between equity and profit. Money obtained through refinancing is borrowed money secured against a property, not free capital. It must be repaid according to the terms of the loan, regardless of whether the new business succeeds. Before using borrowed funds to establish a business, entrepreneurs should carefully assess its potential profitability, operating expenses and ability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its financial obligations.

One of the most important lessons the BRRRR method teaches is that successful business creation requires a structured approach. Building a business is rarely a single event. It involves identifying opportunities, planning carefully, allocating resources and making adjustments when circumstances change. The same principles apply to property investment. Before purchasing a property, an investor needs to consider the purchase price, renovation costs, expected rental income, financing expenses, insurance, taxes and ongoing maintenance. These calculations are similar to those involved in preparing a business plan and estimating the financial resources required to launch a new venture.

Despite its potential benefits, the BRRRR method is not suitable for every aspiring entrepreneur. It generally requires access to initial capital, a reasonable understanding of the property market and the ability to manage renovation projects and financing arrangements. Investors also need to understand local rental demand and the costs associated with owning and maintaining property.

In areas where property prices are high, rental yields are low or borrowing costs are significant, the financial returns may not justify the investment. This can make it difficult to recover the initial capital or refinance the property on favourable terms. Another major risk is overleveraging. Although refinancing can provide funds for additional investments, each new loan increases the investor’s financial obligations. If property values decline, interest rates rise or lenders tighten their requirements, an investor may find it difficult to refinance or meet loan repayments. Relying too heavily on refinancing to fund continued expansion can therefore expose the entire portfolio to financial pressure.

To reduce these risks, entrepreneurs should establish clear investment criteria before committing their money. They should test their financial projections against less favourable conditions, account for unexpected expenses and maintain sufficient emergency reserves. Seeking advice from qualified financial, legal and property professionals can also help them make more informed decisions.

The BRRRR method provides a useful framework for understanding how property investment can contribute to business creation. By purchasing undervalued properties, improving their condition, generating rental income and reinvesting available capital, entrepreneurs may be able to build wealth and create opportunities for other business ventures.

Its greatest value, however, lies in the financial principles behind the strategy. Careful planning, effective resource management, realistic financial forecasting and disciplined reinvestment are essential not only in property investment but also in establishing and growing a successful business. At the same time, entrepreneurs must recognise that property equity is not the same as available profit and that refinancing creates additional debt obligations. Expanding too quickly or relying on unrealistic financial projections can undermine the very financial stability the strategy is intended to create.

The BRRRR method should therefore be considered one possible route to business ownership rather than a universal solution. Its suitability depends on an investor’s financial position, market conditions, risk tolerance and long-term objectives. Ultimately, sustainable entrepreneurship is about more than accumulating assets or launching multiple businesses. It requires using available resources wisely, managing financial risks and creating genuine economic value. When approached with discipline and a clear understanding of its limitations, the BRRRR method can help provide a foundation for business development while supporting long-term financial resilience.