By Adamon Mukasa and Anthony Simpasa, African Development Bank Group (www.AfDB.org).

Document 1: http://apo-opa.co/4g3EVzM
Document 2: http://apo-opa.co/473xTHm
Document 3: http://apo-opa.co/4gcshPk
Document 4: http://apo-opa.co/4gcsi5Q
Document 5: http://apo-opa.co/471DE8y
Document 6: http://apo-opa.co/4gcskL0
Document 7: http://apo-opa.co/47361TE
Document 8: http://apo-opa.co/4dXk53t

The calls for structural economic transformation in Africa date back to the 1960s when newly independent nations aimed to eliminate poverty through economic diversification, sustained growth, and job creation. This agenda persists today, as Africa continues to face significant developmental challenges.

Pursuing post-independence economic agendas was particularly important because, behind the euphoria (http://apo-opa.co/4dZMCVX) of independence, laid significant developmental challenges in several African countries: unskilled labor force, political and institutional fragilities, poor health conditions, rapid population growth, wide income disparities, and the legacy of colonialism and exclusion from the modern world. The establishment of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) (http://apo-opa.co/4g3EVzM) in 1963 and the African Development Bank (http://apo-opa.co/473xTHm) a year later aimed to tackle these other challenges in a more coordinated and impactful manner. The African Union (http://apo-opa.co/475z3Sz), successor of the OAU, developed Agenda 2063 (http://apo-opa.co/4g3EQMu) in 2013 as a blueprint for turning Africa into the global growth pole and powerhouse of the future.

Africa’s Economic Development Paradox

More than sixty years after independence (http://apo-opa.co/3AzLutK), Africa’s structural transformation – the shift of workers from lower to higher productivity employment and intra-sectoral productivity growth (http://apo-opa.co/4dQj0KK) – has not progressed as quickly as hoped. Both policymakers and analysts within and outside the continent are genuinely concerned that achieving structural transformation could remain a mirage for many African countries in the absence of bold structural reforms and financing to support implementation of these policies. Why being so pessimistic? Because historical facts tend to support their pessimism. The African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2024 (http://apo-opa.co/4g2RATW) report, released in May by the African Development Bank, reveals that Africa’s transformation has been slow and uneven. In countries showing signs of transformation, the process has been characterized by low industrialization and predominantly by employment in low-skill, low-productivity services. The agriculture sector, employing 42% of Africa’s workforce, is 60% less productive than the economy-wide average. Consequently, many workers remain trapped in low-productivity, low-wage jobs, unable to escape poverty.

As a result, Africa was the only region of the world where the average real GDP per capita contracted in the 1980s and 1990s, the so-called lost decades (http://apo-opa.co/4fYqm0D).

Africa is off-track in achieving almost all SDG targets by 2030, consistently showing the lowest SDG performance globally since the 2000s (Figure 1). Without intervention, it is predicted that by 2030, nearly 9 out of 10 of the world’s extremely poor will be in Africa (http://apo-opa.co/4e2weEn) and under current conditions[1], it could take African countries over a century on average to reach high-income status.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Development Bank Group (AfDB).

By  Adamon Mukasa and Anthony Simpasa

The implementation of the United Nations’ Agenda 2030 for sustainable development (https://apo-opa.co/4g2kWSb) and the African Union’s Agenda 2063 (https://apo-opa.co/4767Ak0) hinges on Africa’s ability to mobilize sufficient and timely financial resources. The recently released African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2024 (https://apo-opa.co/3yWpFEs) report by the African Development Bank estimates that the continent needs to close, by 2030, an annual financing gap of US$402.2 billion to fast-track its structural transformation process. Scaling up domestic resource mobilization (DRM) will be key to achieving that objective. 

African governments have always recognised the central role of increased mobilization and effective use of domestic resources to achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) and other national development objectives. Through the 2015 Addis Ababa Action Agenda (https://apo-opa.co/4cG67ly), African leaders reaffirmed their commitment to “further strengthening the mobilization and effective use of domestic resources”, underscored by the principle of national ownership established in the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness (https://apo-opa.co/3WZXZ9v). African governments have thus stepped up their policy levers towards improvement of DRM and combatting tax evasion and avoidance. These initiatives include, for example, the work of the African Union Development Agency-New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AUDA-NEPAD) (https://apo-opa.co/3ARAhEU), the High-Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) (https://apo-opa.co/4cK2efo), the African Union Assembly Special Declaration on IFFs (https://apo-opa.co/4g1ixXN), the Africa Initiative of the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for tax purposes (https://apo-opa.co/4gfrvRJ), the African Tax Administration Forum (https://apo-opa.co/4dWXpA9), and the establishment of Medium-Term Revenue Strategies (MTRS) (https://apo-opa.co/3MjW4HY). These initiatives emphasize the need for mobilization of domestic resources at scale and addressing resource leakages. 

Stocktaking of Africa’s DRM progress 
Africa has increasingly mobilized its domestic resources to finance its development priorities in sectors such as health and education, infrastructure development, industrialization, and agriculture. In absolute terms, Africa’s government revenues (tax and non-tax revenues, excluding grants) increased by almost 40 percent from about US$435 billion in 2015 to US$604 billion in 2022 and are projected to reach about US$626 billion in 2025. Tax revenues account for more than 75 percent of the continent’s total domestically generated revenues. However, in relative terms, the continent underperforms its peers. Data from the AEO 2024 indicate that Africa’s average general government revenue declined substantially from 23.5 percent of GDP in 2010 to 19.3 percent of GDP in 2021. This is due to a steady decline in tax revenues, over the same period, from 16.1 percent of GDP in 2010 to 14.2 percent of GDP in 2021. In particular, since 2015, Africa’s average tax revenue ratio relative to GDP has consistently been below the 15 percent minimum (https://apo-opa.co/3X4DYPi) required for a developing country to adequately finance its SDGs. Africa’s revenue ratio is well below the average for Latin America (23.9 percent) and less than half the average for Europe and Central Asia (31.7 percent). Africa’s average low tax revenue ratio mask significant heterogeneity among individual African countries. As shown in figure 2, the average tax-to-GDP ratio over 2015-2025 falls short of the 15 percent threshold in 34 countries, spread across all of Africa’s five regions, calling therefore for urgent actions to scale up DRM and align it with financing needs for structural transformation. 

Aligning DRM with financing needs for structural transformation 
According to findings in the AEO (2024), African countries need to increase their tax-to-GDP ratio by a median value of about 13.2 percentage points—bringing the current median ratio to 27.2 percent of GDP—to be able to close the estimated financing gap for structural transformation. This is under the assumption that additional mobilized tax revenues are efficiently deployed and allocated to financing structural transformation. While the estimated tax effort may be within reach of many African countries, it remains unattainable for others given their relative low potential tax-to-GDP ratio. Hence, out of the 39 African countries with data on tax capacity, the report found that in 18 countries (46.2 percent of them), the level of tax-to-GDP ratio required to mobilize resources for structural transformation exceeds the maximum amount of tax revenues that could be collected given socioeconomic and institutional factors (Figure 3). This means that even if those countries exhaust their current tax capacity, they may not be able to close their respective estimated financing gap by 2030. 

Scaling up resources to fast-track structural transformation in Africa will require addressing underlying challenges and constraints to domestic resource mobilization. These challenges  include inter alia: i) High levels of informality (about 86 percent of total jobs on the continent are informal) (https://apo-opa.co/3T4YKwQ); ii)  Weak tax administration capacities (https://apo-opa.co/4cKmfm3), leading to inefficient tax collection; iii) Complex tax law and rules, which reduce compliance rates; iv) Low domestic savings (prior to the pandemic, Africa had one of the lowest gross domestic savings rates in the world, at 13.6 percent of GDP)1; v)  Endemic corruption (https://apo-opa.co/4g2luaH) (Africa loses annually in IFFs about US$89 billion) (https://apo-opa.co/3MmfvzX); and vi) Inefficient and expensive tax collection systems. 

On the last point in particular, data suggest that between 2000 and 2021 African countries collected only 24 percent of the VAT revenues annually – the lowest rate in the world – that they could otherwise have collected with full compliance and without tax exemptions. The AEO (2024) report has therefore estimated that by just increasing the VAT efficiency ratio to the level currently achieved by high-performing developing countries in other regions—those with a VAT efficiency rate of at least 70 percent—African countries could raise their current median VAT revenues (as a share of GDP) by as much as 7.9 percentage points, equivalent to a median value of about US$1.9 billion. In aggregate terms, improving VAT efficiency ratio could translate into additional VAT revenues of US$171 billion (or 42.5 percent of Africa’s US$402.2 billion financing gap).    

There is a long way to go to make DRM work for Africa’s structural transformation. To move fast, policy priority should be given to improving the transparency of the tax system, widen the tax base, enhance enforcement, mitigate compliance risks, and ultimately stimulate voluntary compliance by strengthening the social contract via enhanced provision of public goods and services to address widespread implicit taxation and increase compliance; increasing non-tax revenues such as property income, royalties, fines, penalties, forfeits, and business permits; enhance the formalization of the informal economy and, digitalization of tax collection systems to curb corruption, thereby enhance revenue collection.  

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Development Bank Group (AfDB).

Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa has increased significantly in recent years as Beijing strengthens its global trade and credit lines. Programs such as the Belt and Road Initiative – a China-led global infrastructure initiative – have seen up to $21.7 billion invested in Africa in 2023 alone while together, state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation represent the fourth-largest energy investors on the continent. As new opportunities in upstream hydrocarbon development, regional infrastructure and downstream processing unfold, China’s project portfolio in Africa is expected to substantially grow.

Given emerging opportunities for Chinese investors in Africa, the African Energy Chamber (AEC) – serving as the voice of the African energy sector – will conduct a working visit to China under efforts to promote new investment and global partnerships. A delegation led by AEC Executive Chairman NJ Ayuk will hold bilateral meetings with Chinese government officials and the private sector, with discussions centering around investment opportunities, bankable projects and China’s emerging role in Africa’s upstream, midstream and downstream sectors.

China’s Growing Energy Presence in Africa

Already boasting a strong presence in Africa’s mineral and renewable energy sectors, Chinese state-owned and private companies are turning their attention to developing African oil and gas resources. Wing Wah, a Chinese oil and gas company, is pioneering a comprehensive project in the Republic of Congo, designed to optimize resource monetization and promote the use of natural gas. The Bango Kayo project features a innovative development model for the Bango Kayo oilfield, extending production beyond the initial block lifecycles and harnessing previously flared gas. Through three phases, Wing Wah will incrementally enhance gas processing and valorization capabilities to produce LNG, butane, and propane. The primary focus is on meeting domestic demand, with surplus gas exported globally, positioning the project as a key contributor to the country’s energy landscape.

In Angola, China has invested just shy of $14 billion in the past decade, the majority of which in energy. At present, Chinese companies are advancing the development of refining projects while seeking new opportunities in upstream oil and gas. Earlier this year, a group of executives from CNOOC travelled to Angola to discuss investment opportunities in oil exploration. CNOOC is assessing an investment in Angola’s Block 24, a deepwater concession with promising potential. Construction firm China National Chemical Engineering also signed an MoU with Angola’s national oil company Sonangol in 2023 for the development of the 200,000 barrel per day Lobito Refinery – poised to be the country’s biggest.

In East Africa, CNOOC is developing the East African Crude Oil Pipeline in partnership with energy major TotalEnergies and the respective national oil companies of Uganda and Tanzania. Designed to transport crude from the Kingfisher and Tilenga oilfields in Uganda to Tanzania’s Port of Tanga, the 1,443-km pipeline is estimated to cost $5 billion. Of this, the project partners have already raised $2 billion and the Ugandan and Tanzanian governments are seeking an additional $3 billion in debt financing – primarily from Chinese lenders such as the Export-Import Bank of China and the China Export&Credit Insurance Corporation. Meanwhile, CNOOC is partnering with the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation to explore deep-sea Blocks 4/1B and 4/1C while holding talks with South Sudan to boost output at Blocks 3 and 7 in the Paloch fields. In West Africa, the company launched wildcat drilling in Gabon’s Blocks BC-9 and BCD-10 in 2023 and renewed its production sharing contract with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and TotalEnergies for OML 130.

“As Africa’s pipeline of bankable oil and gas projects grows, Chinese investors are bound to play an even greater role in supporting development across the industry. Leveraging strong multilateral ties established under programs such as the Belt and Road Initiatives, Chinese companies are gradually emerging as the partners of choice for upcoming oil and gas projects in Africa. From upstream exploration to downstream infrastructure to power and manufacturing industries, Chinese companies can catalyze development as Africa aims to make energy poverty history by 2030,” states Ayuk.

The AEC’s working visit to China comes ahead of the African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energy conference – Africa’s largest energy event, taking place October 2-3 in Cape Town. Amid China’s growing investment portfolio in Africa, AEW: Invest in African Energy serves to connect Chinese investors and project developers with African opportunities, fostering a new era of partnerships that drive projects forward. During the event, presentations, panel discussions and investor forums focus on bankable projects across the energy value chain in Africa, providing the information needed to advance investments. 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

AEW: Invest in African Energy is the platform of choice for project operators, financiers, technology providers and government, and has emerged as the official place to sign deals in African energy. Visit www.AECWeek.com for more information about this exciting event.