Food prices expected to decline in the next 3 months: CSA

In its monthly report of the month-on-month food inflation rate, the Central Statistics Agency (CSA) stated that the monthly inflation rate of October 2021 decreased by 1.3 percentage points compared to the preceding month of September 2021. Moreover, as the agency predicts, food prices for the next 3 months of the harvest period are expected to decline as long-term seasonal inflation trend shows while the non-food inflation rate is projected to remain stable.
The month-on-month general inflation on October 2021 stands at 24.3 percent while food inflation increased by 28.7 percent whilst Non-food inflation rate increased by 18.5 percent. In October, region wise, Addis Ababa city, Amhara, Oromia and SNNP showed a more stable price situation than the other regions.
In October 2021, the year-on-year inflation rate decreased to 34.2 percent, which was 34.8 percent in the previous month September 2021.
The month-on-month general inflation on October 2021 has shown a decline of 0.6 percentage points and the food inflation declined by 1.3 percentage points as compared to the preceding month of September 2021. In the month cereals such as rice, teff and wheat showed a slight decline in their prices and were relatively stable. However, maize has shown slight increase. Meat, milk, cheese and eggs, and spices (mainly salt and pepper) slightly declined in the current month, according to the agency.
Also the price of imported cooking oil continued to increase in October while local cooking oil and butter prices declined slightly. Coffee bean prices have also increased during the current month.
Non-food inflation showed a stabilized situation during the month.
The country level overall inflation rate based on annual change of the 12 months “Moving Average” rose by 24.3 percent in October 2021 as compared to the similar period a year ago. In October 2021, the Country Level Consumer Price Index has increased by 34.2 percent as compared to October 2020. The year-on-year food inflation has increased by 40.7 percent in October 2021 and the Non-Food inflation showed an increase of 25.3 percent in October 2021 as compared to the one observed in October 2020.
The rise in Non-food Inflation is mainly due to rise in the prices of alcohol and tobacco, stimulants (chat), clothing and footwear, housing repair and maintenance (house rent, cement and corrugated iron sheets), and energy (firewood and charcoal), furniture and home furnishings, medical care and jewelry (Gold).
This increase in the General Consumer Price Index is attributed to the rise observed in the indices of Food and Non-alcoholic beverages of 40.7 percent, Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco by 27.1 percent, Clothing and Footwear by 25.1 percent, House Rent, Construction Materials, Water and Fuel and Power by 21.0 percent, Furniture, Furnishings, Household Equipment and Operation by 41.0 percent, Health 43.2 percent, Transport 19.6 percent, Communication by 15.2 percent, Recreation and Culture by 47.8 percent, Education by 23.4 percent, Restaurant and Hotels 24.0 percent and Miscellaneous Goods by 24.6 percent. Most of the components of the Food index showed an increase as compared to similar months last year. Bread and Cereals by (49.5 percent), Meat (27.5 percent), Fish and Seafood by (23.5 percent), Milk, Cheese and Eggs (34.1 percent), Oil and Fats (93.1 percent), Fruits by (33.3 percent), Vegetables and Pulses, Potatoes and Tubers by (21.9 percent), Sugar, Honey and Chocolate declined by (16.9 percent), Other Food Products and spices by (42.0 percent) and Non-Alcoholic beverages and Coffee by 40.0 percent).