African airlines defied the global downturn in air cargo, recording the strongest growth of any region in March 2026 while the wider industry was dragged down by the Israel‑US‑Iran war reshaping Middle East transit corridors.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that global air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne‑kilometers (CTK), fell 4.8 percent year‑on‑year in March, with international operations down 5.5 percent. Capacity also contracted, with available cargo tonne‑kilometers (ACTK) falling 4.7 percent globally. But within that picture, African carriers stood out: their freight demand rose 7.0 percent while capacity dipped 4.6 percent, lifting the cargo load factor by 5.4 percentage points to 49.6 percent—well above the global average of 47.9 percent.
Africa’s 7.0 percent surge made it the best‑performing region in global air cargo for March, according to IATA’s latest traffic data. The continent’s share of global cargo tonne‑kilometers remained relatively small at about 2.1 percent, but its growth rate contrasted sharply with the Middle East, where demand collapsed by 54.3 percent and capacity fell 52.4 percent.
IATA attributed the global decline largely to the severe disruption at major Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, where airspace restrictions linked to the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict have forced airlines to cancel or reroute flights. The region normally acts as the main air bridge between Asia, Europe, and Africa, so the pullback hit transit‑dependent trade strongly, especially on routes that pass through the Gulf.
For African markets, this dislocation appears to be opening up new opportunities. The Africa–Asia trade lane, one of the busiest corridors for the continent, recorded year‑on‑year growth of 22.6 percent in March—the highest among all major lanes and the ninth consecutive month of expansion. Africa’s total share of global cargo tonne‑kilometers on this lane has risen to about 1.3 percent, reflecting stronger onward flows of manufactured goods, textiles, perishables, and raw materials.
As Middle East‑linked corridors staggered, Africa’s position at the edge of the main disruption zone has become strategically important. IATA’s lane‑level data show that while Europe–Middle East cargo fell 57.6 percent and Middle East–Asia dropped 58.6 percent, intra‑Asia trade and Asia–Europe traffic held up better, in part because of increased use of alternative routing.
Africa’s growing connectivity with Asia has benefited from this shift. With more freight being rerouted away from conflict‑affected airspace, some African‑linked lanes are seeing higher volumes and tighter capacity, which tends to push up freight rates. Data from logistics and rate‑tracking platforms confirm that several Europe–Africa lanes have recorded double‑digit rate increases as Middle East‑based capacity is withdrawn from the network.
For African exporters and importers, the situation is double‑edged. On the one hand, higher air‑freight costs are adding pressure to supply chains already exposed to volatile fuel and geopolitical risks. On the other, stronger demand for Africa‑linked routes signals that carriers are increasingly willing to use the continent as a connecting node or an end‑market, which could attract more direct services and investment over time.
Africa’s resilience is not limited to freight. Passenger traffic also showed robust growth, reinforcing the region’s role as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise strained global market. IATA’s March 2026 passenger data show that African airlines reported a 20.6 percent year‑on‑year increase in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), compared with global growth of just 2.1 percent.
Capacity on African routes grew 10.3 percent, pushing the passenger load factor up 6.5 percentage points to 76.2 percent—the largest relative improvement among regions. Within international markets, African carriers saw demand jump 19.2 percent even as Middle East carriers recorded a 60.8 percent slump linked directly to airspace closures and flight cancellations across the Gulf.
With jet fuel prices up 106.6 percent year‑on‑year in March and global refining margins surging, the cost of operating in the region will remain a key constraint. IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh warned that the abrupt withdrawal of Middle East‑linked capacity has tested the resilience of global supply chains, and that the industry’s ability to keep freight flowing will depend on how quickly networks can rebalance and how fuel‑supply disruptions evolve.
