Industry is projected to overtake agriculture as Ethiopia’s second-largest economic sector in the 2018 Ethiopian Fiscal Year (EFY), according to preliminary estimates that put nominal gross domestic product at approximately 31.9 trillion birr.
The projections, presented in a government report on the rebasing of national accounts, place industry’s contribution at 31.78 per cent of GDP, narrowly ahead of agriculture’s 31.35 per cent. Services would remain the largest sector, accounting for 33.85 per cent.
The industrial sector’s projected lead of 0.43 percentage points over agriculture would mark a shift in the measured composition of the economy. However, the figures remain preliminary and do not, on their own, establish a manufacturing-led transformation, as industry also includes construction, mining, electricity and water.
Nominal GDP is estimated to rise from 24.03 trillion birr in 2017 EFY to approximately 31.9 trillion birr in 2018 EFY. The report separately projects real economic growth of 7.7 per cent.
The distinction is important: nominal GDP reflects both changes in production and prices, while real growth measures changes in the volume of goods and services produced.
The projections follow a national accounts rebasing exercise involving government economic planning officials, the Ethiopian Statistics Service and technical assistance from the International Monetary Fund.
The revised accounts put nominal GDP for 2017 EFY at 24.031 trillion birr, equivalent to approximately US$201.42 billion, compared with the previous estimate of 15.094 trillion birr.
The 59.21 per cent upward revision reflects changes in statistical coverage, classification and measurement—not a sudden increase in production.
According to the report, the exercise incorporated information from economic censuses, household surveys, establishment data, administrative records and state-owned enterprises. It sought to capture activities that had previously been underrepresented, including parts of the informal economy, emerging services, telecommunications, transport and mining.
The revised framework uses the 2008 System of National Accounts and an updated industrial classification to provide a more comprehensive picture of economic activity.
Under the revised 2017 EFY estimates, services accounted for 35.91 per cent of GDP, agriculture for 31.57 per cent and industry for 30.20 per cent.
Industry recorded the largest upward revision among the three broad sectors, with measured value added increasing by 73.2 per cent compared with the previous estimate. Agriculture was revised upward by 53.1 per cent and services by 56.3 per cent.
Mining and quarrying recorded a particularly large adjustment, with measured value added increasing by 245.08 per cent to 1.38 trillion birr.
Manufacturing was revised upward by 160.56 per cent to 1.65 trillion birr, while electricity and water increased by 495.35 per cent to 613.58 billion birr.
Construction remained a substantial component of industry, generating 3.61 trillion birr in value added. Although its measured value increased by 18.23 per cent, its share of GDP fell from 20.23 per cent to 15.02 per cent as the overall economy was revised upward more sharply.
These changes describe differences between the previous and revised statistical estimates, rather than annual growth rates.
Several service activities also underwent substantial revisions.
Transport and storage increased by 286.74 per cent to 1.85 trillion birr, while accommodation and food services rose by 218.76 per cent to 1.13 trillion birr.
Health and social work activities were revised upward by 271.09 per cent to 318.95 billion birr.
Wholesale and retail trade reached 2.42 trillion birr. Telecommunications and information activities were separately identified, contributing 326.72 billion birr, or approximately 1.4 per cent of GDP.
Not all activities were revised upward. The measured value of real estate and business services fell by 45.24 per cent, education by 25.84 per cent, and finance and insurance by 4.01 per cent compared with the previous estimates.
Despite industry’s projected advance, agriculture continues to account for nearly one-third of measured output.
The revised 2017 EFY accounts put crop production at 5.07 trillion birr in value added, an upward revision of 48.65 per cent.
Animal production contributed 1.79 trillion birr, up 49.44 per cent from the previous estimate. Forestry, fishing and aquaculture together reached 719.25 billion birr, reflecting an upward revision of 111.04 per cent.
A declining share of GDP does not necessarily mean agricultural production is falling. The sector’s share can decrease even as its output grows if other activities expand faster.
On the expenditure side, gross capital formation reached 8.49 trillion birr in 2017 EFY, equivalent to 35.3 per cent of GDP.
That represents a 179.3 per cent upward revision from the previous estimate, reflecting broader measurement of investment activities.
Private final consumption stood at 15.47 trillion birr, or 64.4 per cent of GDP, while government final consumption amounted to 1.14 trillion birr, or 4.7 per cent.
Gross domestic savings were estimated at 7.42 trillion birr, equivalent to 30.9 per cent of GDP. The resource balance recorded a deficit of 1.07 trillion birr, or 4.4 per cent.
According to the report, the rebasing exercise began in January 2026 and was completed at the end of September. The updated accounts are intended to strengthen the statistical basis for economic planning, policy formulation and investment decisions.
