Dry conditions are now being expected in the northern parts of the country; warns IGAD’S Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
ICPAC announced that the June to September, 2023 forecast shows high chances of drier than usual conditions across the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).
Accordingly, Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Uganda, and much of South Sudan and Sudan are expected to receive insufficient rainfall until the end of the season.
ICPAC’s analysis also indicates an increased likelihood of warmer than usual conditions over the entire region, particularly over northern Sudan, parts of southern and central to western Ethiopia, central and northern Kenya, central and northern Somalia, and coastal parts of Tanzania.
The June to September rainfall season is particularly important for the northern regions of the GHA, where it contributes to more than 50 percent of the annual total rainfall.
ICPAC Director, Guleid Artan called for heightened vigilance, stating, “As the conditions we forecast could very well increase food insecurity in the region. Depressed rainfall, coupled with warmer than usual temperatures, are likely to affect crop productivity, with the risk of crop wilting and a hastened decline in pasture and water availability.”
He appealed to IGAD’s partners to, “Stay mobilized and continue to respond to the crisis where 49 million people are still highly-food insecure in the IGAD region.”
In most parts of the region, above average rainfall was recorded during the March to May, 2023 season, bringing some respite to the communities most affected by five consecutive failed rainfall seasons in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.
“It is now very likely that we will transition from La Niña to El Niño between July and September,” explained Hussen Seid, Climate Modeling Expert at ICPAC.
“At this stage, there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño, but in general it is associated with depressed rainfall between June and September in the north of the region and wetter conditions between October and December in the equatorial parts. So, we must get prepared for much wetter weather towards the end of the year. We encourage our users to consult our weekly and monthly updates that have a high degree of predictability,” the Climate Modeling Expert further elaborated.
ICPAC is a designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organization.

An imminent amendment of a two decade old law undergoes re-revision by the Ministry of Trade and Regional Integration (MoTRI) for the re-establishment of a proclamation for the Chamber of Commerce.
The new proclamation now places three stages of organizational structures.
At the first draft discussions which dated a few months back, backlash ensued following the proclamation being title as ‘Chamber of Commerce’.
The opposition mostly stemmed from industry actors and other business associations who strongly cited that the description of the proclamation was not inclusive with regards to representing the activities and insisted the formation of a separate association that mirrored them.
In the latest draft proclamation, the ministry has now included the industry sector and given the proclamation title under, ‘Chambers of Commerce and Industry’, which has been well received by the members of the industry sector.
During the discussions held on Saturday May 13, participants appreciated the move to which representatives of the Ministry explained that it was a due response done on their part to accommodate those who will be members of the chamber.
However, a segment of the industry sector representatives criticized that even though the proclamation mentioned the industry sector on its description, it did not mention anything in its articles about the specific sector.
The draft proclamation put three structures for the administration of the chambers. Based on that, the council has been included on the structure with a seat in between the general assembly which is the higher body of the chamber and the board of directors that is assigned by the general assembly.
The newly revised law did however not state the membership conditions, but assured that it will be done so in a directive that will follow the proclamation.
The first draft document on its description indicated that membership will be mandatory for businesses, and companies, who have multiple branches throughout the country who will be members of the national chamber rather than the city chamber.
Regarding membership for those who have multiple branches in more than one region or city, the re-reviewed draft proclamation stated that their membership will be determined by a directive that will be issued after the amendment of the proclamation.
The chamber of commerce and sectorial association establishment proclamation 341/2003 which was last ratified two decades ago has been criticized by different stakeholders. Multiple papers and studies have been developed on the aim to improve the proclamation and government on its end has also facilitated several discussions to better the proclamation.
The previous description document which was issued by MoTRI also acknowledged the same and cited that the document read that prior to and after ratification of the proclamation, it did not get consent from the business community hence the stir of controversy.
Organization structure, membership, representation, powers and duties, were some of the areas that were identified as sources of debate.
The document added that the proclamation should be amended on the consideration of the sector benefit, the global situation and economic growth.
In order to solve the challenges and make the chambers fruitful and helpful to the economic growth and congruency with government policies and other laws, the new coming proclamation has been drafted.
The draft highlighted that the various controversial points in the current proclamation will be addressed.

Agricultural Transformation Institute in collaboration with global partners hosts an event to identify how Ethiopia’s agriculture practitioners can best improve their livelihood with the ever changing climate incidents, under the backing of research and new scientific results.
The event targeted to improve livelihoods and build agri-food system resilience and adaptive capacity to changing climate through; sharing of science, knowledge, and innovations and climate informed digital agriculture hubs and decision support to address critical gaps in climate information service. Next generation seasonal and sub seasonal forecasts, early warning systems for early action, and climate smarter agriculture technologies and provisions, and promoting large scale core country and cross border adoption was widely touched upon at the event.
The platform also targeted to build a multi actor partnership for delivery-education-research-and extension continuum to anticipate climate risks, enhance preparedness and accelerate prioritization, user centric bundling and uptake of best-bet resilience building and adaptive measure.
Mandefro Nigusse, Director-General of ATI, recalled that the institute had in recent times carried out a series of workshops that identify the way of uplifting the Ethiopian agriculture sector, “The latest collaboration with the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR) is part of the series.”
He said that the latest event is targeted to identify the research results of CGIAR centers, which are 14, and utilize the same for the purpose to build resilience to climate change for the livelihood of smallholder farmers.
“Researches in the country are not as per our demand, so these research centers have huge capacity and information from different actors globally that shall support our agricultural activity. We will then analyze and apply the same to our country and farmers through call centers that we installed,” the Director General stated, adding, “The international research centers have carried out the upstream research identifications to which we shall disseminate to lower level experts. This is vital and when it becomes applicable to the downstream level, it will improve our agricultural activity with resilience for climate change.”
According to Mandefro, disseminating the recommendation for farmers would not be difficult since the platform currently exists. However, coming up with recommendations of science, information and analysis from a strong institution would have an even better improvement to the sector.
Martien Van Nieuwkoop, World Bank Agriculture and Food Global Director, told media that climate smart agriculture is a high priority for the bank in Ethiopia, “We are putting the money, the bank’s USD 1.5 billion in financing, in support of various programs in Ethiopia. We have a major food system resilience project to build climate resilience in agriculture.”
“We are active in the lowland through the lowlands livelihood resilience project. We also are very active in the livestock sector, and agriculture is another project and we also work in active agricultural research and innovation in tandem with the CGIAR and AICCRA project. So we are active on many fronts on agriculture and food systems in Ethiopia,” Martien added.
Regarding the World Bank future strategy, the Global Director said that when it comes to future strategies, their vision is in agriculture, and in the food system that supports healthy people, plants and economy.
“We are conducting activities to make sure that agriculture growth is there and is inclusive. We are building resilience because climate change is unfolding at a very rapid pace and affecting farmers as we speak. So food systems need to become more resilient,” he said, adding, “So how can we get to impact that and also reduce the carbon footprint of agriculture, which is very important to get to a net zero world to support of the of the Paris agreements of the banks projects?”
“To do so, we need a very good dialogue with the Government of Ethiopia. I mean, clear convergence on some of the policy framework and priorities,” he explained.
The meeting was also hosted as part of shaping Ethiopia’s agriculture for greater impact and also in contributing to counteracting measures for challenges faced, and the contribution of the scientific community in CGAIR, which is stated as very crucial.
According to Director General of ATI, similar events are expected to be carried out with different stakeholders including the business community in the near future.

African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development have called for reforms of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) system to strengthen the global financial safety net and make more liquidity available to developing countries.
The call for reforms was made during a meeting of the Africa High-level Working Group on the Global Financial Architecture on the margins of the 2023 Annual Meetings of the African Development Bank Group held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
Coordinated by the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), the High-level Working Group comprises African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, the African Union, the African Development Bank, Afreximbank, and the World Bank, and includes the participation of IMF staff and Executive Directors. The Group serves as a forum to develop reform proposals for the global financial architecture and strengthen the African voice on the global stage.
SDRs’ Original Design and SDRs in Practice
During the meeting, Hanan Morsy, ECA’s Deputy Executive Secretary and Chief Economist, delivered a presentation on reforming the SDR allocation and rechanneling mechanism. The SDR system came into existence in 1968 with the aim of supplementing official reserves and facilitating global liquidity. The IMF’s Articles of Agreement stipulate that SDR allocations are meant to be considered every five years, referred to as “basic period”. The Articles also allow for SDR allocations in response to “unexpected major developments”. Throughout the 12 “basic periods” since the inception of the SDR system, there have been merely four general allocations and one special allocation (with two notable ones in 2009 and 2021). This is despite the fact that global macroeconomic conditions would have warranted more frequent allocations during this time.
Morsy also emphasized that, when SDRs are allocated, they tend to disproportionately benefit countries that are less in need of them. This is because SDRs are distributed in proportion to existing IMF quotas, which are primarily a function of an economy’s size and relative position in the world economy. For instance, during the 2021 general SDR allocation of $650 billion, high-income countries, which are least likely to require or utilize SDRs, received approximately $450 billion, constituting almost 70% of the total allocation. Africa, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, received fewer SDRs than Germany, a country with a population of only 83 million.
Making SDR allocation decisions more rule-based and analytical
The ministers emphasized the need for SDR allocation decisions to be made in a rule-based analytical manner to reduce the discretionary and political nature of the allocation process. The “Unexpected Major Developments” provision needs to be clarified and operationalized to include the following triggers: force-majeure exogenous shocks, such as pandemics or natural disasters, global recessions, and significant capital flow reversals from emerging and developing economies.