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Thought Leadership on Economic Modernization and Development Anchoring Ethiopia’s Development Plan.

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Adam Smith (1723- 1790) and David Ricardo (1772- 1823) classical economic theories emphasized invisible hand’s free market forces of demand and supply, self-regulation plus prioritization of long run growth driving mean reversion to full employment.

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) posited that exponential population growth unless prevented will outstrip arithmetic growth of food and resources causing poverty, hardship and economic decline.

Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) entrepreneurship theories argued that entrepreneurs drive technical progress and innovation of a nation and that large companies use their capital to invest in research and development (R&D) of new products and services, distribute them cheaply to consumers and raise economies living standards.

Roy Harrod (1900- 1978) and Evsey Domar (1914- 1997) model postulates that higher savings increases investment which raises capital stock and economic growth.

Walt Whitman Rostow (1916-2003) five stages of economic growth posited linear transition from traditional society, preconditions for take-off, take-off, drive to maturity and age of high mass consumption.

Daron Acemoglu institutional theory argues extractive institutions which concentrate power and wealth in the hands of a few hinder economic development by discouraging investment, innovation, and economic growth while inclusive institutions which distribute power and resources promote it.

Ethiopia’s Pathway to Africa’s Beacon of Prosperity- Home Grown Economic Reform (HGER).

Ethiopia’s 10-Year Development Plan (2021-2030) proposes home grown reforms to economic, social, administrative, and institutional problems.

Key major economic challenges were identified to include lack of quality GDP growth that creates jobs, reduces inequalities, and fosters sectoral transformation and linkages. FCY public debt distress as exports lag imports. National savings lag national investment creating imbalances.

Persistent and stubbornly high inflation. High unemployment, disguised employment and vulnerable employment in informal sector. Slow national transformation from low productivity agriculture to manufacturing.

Relatively low tax to GDP ratio. Low financial inclusion for banking and insurance plus ‘’crowing out’’ of private sector credit by government and SOEs.

Low quality provision of infrastructure as well as health, education and other social services with wide rural vs urban disparities. Weak government capacity to drive achievement of development targets coupled with waste and corruption.

Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Targets.

Target for Real GDP growth was set at average of 10 percent over FY2020/21- 2029/30.This double digit growth was expected to reduce poverty level from 19 percent in 2020/21 to 7 percent in 2029/30.

Structural transformation targets for agriculture were set at an average growth of 5.9 percent while GDP share was to fall from 32.6 percent in 2019/20 to 22 percent in 2029/30.Industry average growth target was put at of 13 percent and its GDP proportion rise 29 percent to 35.9 percent.

Export promotion was to be prioritized with exports share of GDP expected to hit 12.9 percent by 2029/30.Agriculture exports were projected to fall from 77 percent to 36.4 percent.

Gross Capital Formation (National Investment) needed to deliver the double digit 10 percent average real GDP growth rate was projected at 36.9 percent of GDP.

Fiscal Policy and Public Finance Targets.

Gross domestic revenue was forecasted to rise by an average of 26.1 annually from birr 395 billion to birr 3.9 trillion with tax revenue (Income, VAT, Excise, Custom duties)  increasing from birr 317.9 billion to birr 3.5 trillion. Tax revenue to GDP is expected to double from 9.2 percent in 2019/20 to 18.2 percent.

                Public expenditure is estimated to increase from birr 480 billion to birr 4.5 trillion. Government budget to GDP will clock 23.4 percent by 2029/30. Recurrent expenditure share of budget will be 64 percent in 2029/30 while CAPEX development will comprise 36 percent.

Fiscal deficit was projected to remain below the 3 percent of GDP global threshold to stand by leveraging fiscal consolidation path discipline of cutting costs, increasing revenues and  growing GDP at 2.9 percent of GDP (birr 556.4 billion) in 2029/30.

LCY fiscal deficit financing will by then comprise 79 percent while FCY deficit financing account for 21 percent.

Medium Term Debt Management Strategy -MTDS was to reduce Public and Public Guaranteed Debt to GDP ratio from 51 percent in 2019/20 to 48.6 percent in 2029/30.

Monetary Policy and Financial Sector Targets.

Inflation single digit bound target will be anchored by annual growth of M3 Broad Money at 21 percent and M1 Base Money 19 percent. Floating exchange rate target was to guarantee a stable exchange rate and increase NBE FX Reserves.

Interest rates to be determined by market demand and supply. Implement digital finance system. Establishment a functioning capital market (money market, bonds and stocks exchange, commodity derivatives market).

Total bank and MFI deposits average annual average growth of 22.4 percent from birr 1.04 trillion in 2019/20 to birr 7.9 trillion in 2029/30 driven by commercial bank deposits rise of 28.6 percent and MFI deposits 30 percent per annum.

Development Financing Plan Targets.

Public budget-related financial planning with domestic revenue (tax and appropriations in aid) plus donor grants covering 88.7 percent and budget deficit financing 11.2 percent.

Non-budgetary financial sources include bank, MFI and other saving options deposits of birr 17.99 trillion (birr 15.565 trillion – 84.5 percent raised by banks, MFIs and loan repayment. birr 2.43 trillion – 13.5 percent from treasury bills, bonds, equity market and other financial sources).Private sector share of credit will be birr 12.2 trillion (87.2 percent) and government birr 1.8 trillion (12.8 percent).

Agricultural Development Targets.

Increase annual crop production from 543m quintals to 925m quintals. Grow crop production through irrigation from 8m quintals to 38m quintals. Raise fertilizers distribution from 16.1m quintals to 32.9m quintals.

Enhance horticulture production for export from 272.8K tons to 1.05M tons and horticulture export receipts from USD$326.1M to USD$950M. Raise milk production from 4.37bn litters to 11.8bn litters. Increase animal meat from 295K tons to 1.7M tons.

Manufacturing Industry Development Targets.

Raise manufacturing average capacity utilization from 50 percent to 85 percent. Import substitution by increasing domestic market share of locally manufactured industrial products from 30 percent to 60 percent.

Grow number of manufacturing SMEs from 2,000 to 11,000. Create 5M new manufacturing jobs by growing them annually from 175K in 2019/20 to 850K in 2029/30.

Construction Industry Development Targets.

Raise the market share of local construction companies to 75 percent. Reduce the time wasted in implementing construction projects by 50 percent.

                Raise Construction direct jobs from 710,000 to 3.3M per year and indirect jobs from 1.78M to 8.3M per year through 16.6% annual growth rate of job creation in construction. Meet 80 percent domestic construction inputs requirement.

Mining and Petroleum Development Targets.

Increase number of mining FDI entrepreneurs from 160 to 660 and domestic investors from 50 to 1,050. Grow number of mining services value chain investors from 1,700 to 6,700. Enhance annual gold production from 3.2 tons to 137 tons.

Foster number of minerals value addition manufacturing industries from 30 to 130. Raise mining and petroleum jobs from 200,000 to 1.8M.

Trade Development Targets.

Grow merchandise export revenues from USD$3bn to USD$18.3bn (USD$6.7bn from agriculture, USD$9bn from manufacturing, USD$2.1bn from mining, and USD$0.7bn from electricity and other commodities. Enhance number of foreign trade destinations from 37 to 96 by concluding WTO accession negotiations.

Raise ease of doing business score from 48 to 80 by removing trade barriers. Implement African Continental Free Trade Area. AFCFTA. Develop 3,055 new demand-based standards from international, continental, and national standards.

Tourism Development Targets.

Grow number of overseas tourists from 850,000 to 7.3M and domestic tourists from 24m to 70m. Increase tourism sector jobs from 1.6M to 5.2M .Expand tourist serving institutions from 1,348 to 2,696. Add 59 new tourist destinations.

Urban Development Targets.

Develop 4K towns and 14K rural development centers.  Establishment 2M MSMEs for urban manufacturing. Raise ratio of urban housing demand satisfied from 64 percent to 80 percent by building more than 4.4M houses. Build 2.8M rural centers standardize houses.

Reduce urban unemployment rate from 18.7 percent to 9 percent by creating 15M jobs through food security system, community works and social safety net support. Increase liquid waste removal from 1 percent to 50 percent and dry waste removal from 30 percent to 80 percent in towns with a population of over 20K.

Transport Development Targets.

Build 102,000 km new roads to expand national road network from 144,000 km to 246,000 km. increase expressways from 301km to 1,650km. Grow Universal Rural Roads Access Program (URRAP) from 56,000 km to 109,000 km. Raise dry ports from 8 to 11.Increase railway length railway from 902 km to 4,199 km. Building 6 airports.

Increase international flight passengers from 10.2m to 48.4m. Developing inland rivers and GERD transport. Grow rural transport coverage from 67 percent to 100 percent and urban transport coverage from 34 percent to 70 percent. Create 1.4M transport sector jobs.

Water Resources Development Targets.

Increase rural dwellers with access to water within 1km from 54.88 percent and urban dwellers from 58.9 percent to 100 percent. Build integrated basic sewerage systems for 100 cities and ensure all rural villages to have access to toilets.

Increase application of modern irrigation techniques from 2 percent to 20 percent. Create 1.05M water sector jobs.

Energy Development Targets.

Increase power transmission lines from 18,400 km to 29,900 km. Grow electricity export from 2,803 GWH to 7,184 GWH. Expand electricity customers from 5.8M to 24.3M.

Raise grid-based electricity coverage from 33 percent to 96 percent and off-grid from 11 percent to 4 percent. Cut electric power wastage (loss) from 19.6 percent to 12.5 percent.

Innovation and Technology Development Targets.

Increase access to mobile and internet from 37.2 percent and 18.6 percent respectively to 100 percent. Increase digital public services from 176 to 2,500. Raise the coverage of public institutions to be included in the government’s electronic network system to 95 percent. Increase national data centers from 1 to 3.

Raise share of private sector jobs in technology and digitalization from 50 percent to 80 percent. Provide support to 3,000 selected tech start-ups. Increase potential workforce in innovation, technology and research to 5.7M

Demography and Human Resource Development Targets.

Limit population growth rate to a maximum of 2 percent. Increase urbanization rate from 21.4 percent to 35 percent. Cut maternal mortality rate- MMR per 100,000 live births from  401 in 2015/2016 to 140 in 2029/30;  Infant Mortality Rate- IMR from 47 to 29 and under 5 years infant mortality from 59 to 25.

Raise medical doctors per 10,000 patients from 0.86 to 2.7.Increase community health insurance coverage from 49 percent to 95 percent. Increase life expectancy from 65.5 years in 2018/19 to 70 years in 2029/30.

Achieve 100 percent net enrolment rate in grades 1-8 and grade 8th completion rate from 62.1 percent in 2018/19 to 90 percent in 2029/30. Increase public higher education institutions from 45 to 55 and private from 238 to 550. Increase public TVETs from 672 to 922 and private from 950 to 1700.

Gender and Social Inclusion Targets.

Increase the share of female decision makers in legislature, judiciary and executive to 50 percent.  Eliminate 44 percent pay differential between men and women for similar jobs

Increase women engaged and benefiting from micro enterprises from 41 percent to 50 percent and women engaged in income generating activities using microfinance loan from 33 percent to 55 percent.

Raise youth with access to credit from 25 percent to 50 percent. Increase the number of persons employed through job placement support systems from 1.96M to 20M.

Grow number of the vulnerable, persons with disabilities, elderly and street dwellers in safety net programs from 1.3M to 1.53M.

Justice and Public Services Targets.

Increase criminal case clearance from 80 percent to 100 percent. Enhance resolution of civil court cases enforcement from 50 percent to 100 percent and arbitration from 70 percent to 92 percent. Grow ICT supported legal services coverage to 100 percent. Implement international human rights 100 percent.

Raise satisfaction with public service delivery from 59 percent to 90 percent. Grow share of women in public institution leadership posts to 36 percent. Employ 50 percent of new graduates.

Peace Building and Regional Development Cooperation Targets.

Build trust between communities and security forces from 40 percent to 95 percent. Enhance level of confidence and understanding between Federal Government, Regional States and between Regional States from 25 percent to 95 percent.

Create 6M overseas employment opportunities. Support Ethiopians in diaspora to create a wealth worth of USD$7bn and 100,000 jobs inside Ethiopia.  

Environment and Climate Change Targets.

Raise Greenhouse Gas-GHGs emissions reduction capacity from 92.7M metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2E) to 162.3M metric tons.

Increase terrestrial coverage of protection of wild life against illicit activities from 62 percent to 92 percent.

Buffer national forest coverage from 15.5 percent to 30 percent. Increase number wild life and biodiversity species maintained from 179,285 to 764,361.

Nicasio Karani Migwi is a specialist in banking and financial services, macroeconomics, strategic management, international business  and Corporate Governance (Board Directorship). He currently works as a General Manager- Special Projects and Bank Economist – real economy & financial markets at Equity Group Holdings PLC. He did part-time lecturing for the MBA Global Strategic Management at Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology.

A Necessary Cure for Ethiopia’s Retail Ills

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I recall a particularly frustrating experience from a couple of years ago, one that likely resonates with many of us. I visited a local retailer to buy some essential items—cooking oil and rice. The price quoted was shockingly high, significantly more than the standard rate just a week earlier. When I cautiously inquired about the increase, the shop owner responded with a dismissive shrug. “That is the price now,” he said. “Everyone is selling at this rate. You can take it or leave it.” His indifferent tone felt like a slap in the face, a moment that has become all too familiar for many.

In that moment, I wasn’t just a customer; I felt like a captive. My choices were to pay his inflated price or return home without dinner ingredients for my family. This situation is not merely about one rude shopkeeper; it reflects a much larger economic issue. This is precisely why the government’s recent decision to open the wholesale and retail sector to foreign competition is not just a policy shift—it offers a potential lifeline for every Ethiopian struggling with the cost of living.

For decades, Ethiopia’s wholesale and retail sectors have been reserved for local businesses. While the intention to nurture domestic enterprises was commendable, the lack of real competition has fostered complacency and unethical practices. We have all witnessed the symptoms: sudden, unexplained price hikes on essentials, the mysterious disappearance of items only to reappear at a premium, and a general attitude of exploitation due to the absence of alternatives. These are not isolated incidents; they form a consistent pattern of market failure.

Such practices are a primary driver of the cost-of-living crisis. When a limited number of players control supply and pricing without fear of competition, the result is inevitably inflationary. Monopolies and protected oligopolies serve the interests of sellers, not consumers. While local businesses cite challenges like access to finance, these difficulties cannot justify practices that harm the public and distort the economy. Decades of protection have done little to encourage these businesses toward the efficiency and innovation that characterize mature economies. This short-term mindset has backfired, limiting their potential and damaging their reputation.

The government’s decision to open these sectors is a pragmatic intervention rather than an ideological shift. Introducing foreign competition is the only proven remedy for market abuse. Imagine being able to leave an indifferent shopkeeper and take my business to a competitor known for consistent, transparent pricing. That simple act of choice is transformative. It compels every market player to elevate their standards, competing on price, quality, and service. The consumer, no longer held hostage, becomes a king whose loyalty must be earned.

Importantly, this move does more than enhance our retail sector; it sends a strong, clear message to the global investment community. Opening a long-protected sector is a tangible indication that Ethiopia is genuinely committed to economic modernization and market-led principles. For foreign investors, actions speak louder than words. This policy shift is a decisive step that fosters immense confidence, demonstrating the government’s willingness to implement challenging structural reforms to create a more open and predictable business environment. This confidence is the foundation for large-scale, long-term investments. When investors observe a nation transitioning from a protected, opaque market to a competitive, transparent one, they perceive lower risks and a stronger commitment to the rules of global commerce. The initial wave of investment in retail will serve as proof of concept, encouraging further investments in manufacturing, logistics, and technology, thus creating a virtuous cycle of capital inflow that benefits the entire economy.

The advantages extend beyond price tags and investor sentiment. Foreign entrants introduce sophisticated, technology-driven supply chains that significantly reduce waste, spoilage, and costs. This efficiency dismantles the bottlenecks often used to justify hoarding and price gouging. They also foster a culture of long-term investment, creating new jobs and providing valuable training that enhances human capital within the country. Their presence raises standards across the entire sector.

However, a strong counterargument persists: that this move equates to selling our economic sovereignty, replacing local exploitation with foreign domination. This fear, rooted in post-colonial suspicion, is powerful but ultimately misplaced. I contend that the true betrayal of sovereignty lies in allowing the current, dysfunctional system to persist.

Economic sovereignty is not solely about ownership; it involves control and the distribution of benefits. Who truly gains from the status quo? A narrow segment of local business owners. Who bears the cost? The vast majority of the Ethiopian public. By introducing competition, the government reasserts its sovereignty on behalf of its people, restructuring the market to serve the public good, which is the highest expression of national interest.

Moreover, the notion of foreign “domination” misunderstands modern retail investment. These companies are not colonial enterprises; to succeed, they must integrate into the Ethiopian economy. They will source products locally, employ thousands of Ethiopians, pay taxes, and invest in physical infrastructure. This is a partnership governed by Ethiopian laws, not an act of domination.

The goal is not to replace local businesses but to stimulate their evolution. The future should be a blended, dynamic ecosystem. The presence of efficient foreign players establishes a high standard of performance, demonstrating to local entrepreneurs what is achievable. Ambitious Ethiopian businesses will learn, adapt, and innovate. This is how local businesses transition from being protected infants into robust, competitive entities.

The opening of the sector represents a bold act of confidence, reflecting faith in the Ethiopian consumer and the potential of our entrepreneurs to rise to new challenges. This decision reclaims economic sovereignty for the benefit of all. While it may be disruptive, the appropriate response is not to retreat into fear but to adapt and improve. Ensuring the public’s livelihood and attracting global capital to shape our future is the highest form of sovereignty.

Befikadu Eba is the Founder and Managing Director of Erudite Africa Investments. A former banker, he has a strong interest in economics, private sector development, and financial inclusion. He can be reached at befikadu.eba@eruditeafrica.com.

Get Ready for a Floral Paradise: An Exciting City Experience Ahead

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I grew up in the charming town of Merti-Methera, Ethiopia, established by the Dutch agricultural conglomerate HVA, Handelsvereniging Amsterdam. This Dutch firm has a long history of large-scale farming in Ethiopia’s Rift Valley, particularly in sugar cane cultivation and processing. Designed by Dutch architects, the town features a unique European flair, with exquisite gardens filled with vibrant blooms, colorful trees, and ornamental plants celebrated for their breathtaking flowers and enchanting fragrances. The Climbing Lily, along with geraniums and petunias, serves as a prominent floral emblem of Methera, known for its striking beauty and distinctive tropical growth habit. This lush flora has enriched the region’s landscapes and gardens, significantly enhancing the well-being and quality of life for Methera’s residents.

Despite efforts to restore Merti’s former glory, the once-beautiful city has faded into history. An influx of people has overwhelmed the city’s resources, infrastructure, and services, compounded by a lack of care and maintenance. As a result, the city has lost much of its vitality and charm.

Growing up in this delightful small town and continuing my work in Ethiopia’s floriculture sector brings me a profound sense of tranquility. Surrounded by lush vegetation and vibrant flowers, I find a heightened sense of faith and peace in this verdant yet challenging environment, which serves as a sanctuary from stress.

Throughout my career, I have had the privilege of traveling extensively across Europe, Asia, Africa, and beyond. During these journeys, I noticed intriguing parallels between my hometown of Methera and various European towns in terms of landscaping and the community’s efforts to care for, share, and celebrate flowers and green spaces. Upon returning to my hometown, I was struck by the harmonious blend of urban infrastructure and ornamental flora. The abundance of flower shops and markets reflects a modern cultural trend that not only elevates community spirit but also fosters connections, alleviates stress, and enriches the overall environment.

Recently, I had a thought: Ethiopia stands out as a prominent supplier of flowers to Europe and the Middle East, offering a remarkable variety of exquisite blooms—from roses to summer flowers, ornamental cuttings, and potted plants. With an impressive average daily export of 274 tons, the nation’s annual flower production reaches 100,000 tons. Many believe that this flourishing flower industry fosters a sense of value and connection to nature among urban residents in Europe, ultimately enhancing their self-esteem. If this is indeed the case, why shouldn’t the people of Addis Ababa enjoy the same enriching benefits? Certainly, there exists a delicate balance between export demands and domestic consumption. Critics argue that this tension arises as the government prioritizes increasing export volumes while navigating the needs of the home market.

On the other hand, the middle class in the main towns of Ethiopia is expanding at an extraordinary pace, driving increased demand and purchasing power that is reshaping the country’s business and commercial landscape. The capital city, Addis Ababa, is home to 134 embassies, 28 UN agency offices, and 2,953 civil society organizations. This trend, combined with the presence of diverse cultural institutions, is expected to create substantial demand for flowers to beautify office spaces, meeting halls, and for occasions such as birthdays, anniversaries, weddings, graduations, and holidays like New Year, Christmas, Easter, Ramadan, and Valentine’s Day.

According to a survey by the Addis Ababa City Administration Revenue Bureau, there are approximately 903 flower retail shops in Addis Ababa, mainly located in Bole, Yeka Kirkos, Kolefa, Akaki-Kaliti, Nefas Silk, Addis Ketema, and Lideta. Most flowers sold in these shops are sourced from the flower-growing clusters in Ethiopia’s highland and midland regions. Unfortunately, these flowers often do not meet export standards and are known for their poor quality, including flaccid stems, faded colors, weak leaves, and poorly formed blooms. The average selling price of flowers in Addis Ababa varies significantly based on location, flower type, color, and season. A recent survey conducted in September 2025 found that the average price for a mixed flower bouquet ranges from 59 USD (8,000 Birr) to 259 USD (35,000 Birr).

While flower shops hold significant importance, the current traditional and outdated flower retail environment does not align with the progress of the innovative smart city infrastructure. The number of flower gift shops and florists in the city remains relatively low, and their facilities are often inadequate. Additionally, logistics providers and flower gift shops frequently lack the necessary cold chain facilities for transporting and temporarily storing flowers. Despite digital advancements, critics argue that the absence of aesthetic features in flower shops makes Addis Ababa feel incomplete or less inviting, highlighting the need to balance modernity with elements that enhance the quality of life and community spirit. The significance of both formal and informal education in the floristry industry has largely been overlooked, with a notable lack of training in areas such as flower arrangement, design techniques, personal style development, the art of combining flowers and plants, nature-inspired aesthetics, and floral shaping. Typically, no courses are available through colleges, public or private post-secondary vocational schools, or professional associations.

Currently, the corridor development project in Ethiopia is transforming Addis Ababa and other cities into vital commercial hubs, generating new economic opportunities. This initiative has led to improved infrastructure, expanded recreational areas, enhanced connectivity, increased business competitiveness, and a better overall quality of life. Many now believe that Addis Ababa is evolving into a vibrant and dynamic global city. This transformation is characterized by the establishment of smart infrastructure aimed at promoting a strong economy and positioning the city as a tourism hub, reflecting a modern vision inspired by other major cities worldwide.

In this context, the flower industry is at a crucial point in its growth. The emergence of retail flower shops is expected to significantly enhance the city’s aesthetic evolution. In line with this progress, the Ethiopian Investment Board introduced Directive 1001/2024 in March 2024, allowing engagement in business sectors that were previously off-limits. Under this directive, foreign investors can now participate in trading activities, including wholesale and retail flower businesses.

The entry of investors into the flower retail and wholesale sector is believed to bring significant changes to the aesthetic value of Addis Ababa and improve the quality of urban life. Additionally, some foreign investors in Ethiopia are attempting to establish a florist university and college in the main city. The college aims to offer courses in floral design, floral arrangement training, plant care, and the business skills necessary for running a florist shop.

Addis Ababa has recently garnered significant attention, both domestically and internationally, with over a dozen visitors exploring development and business opportunities. This increased interest can be attributed to a growing focus on commercial activities. The city has become a testing ground for various initiatives, such as hanging flower decorations, hillside forest preservation, sidewalk flower planting, and river cleaning efforts.

Hanging flower decorations along Addis Ababa’s main roads, including Bole, Kasanchis, and Megenagn, are becoming a new phenomenon. Proponents of smart cities argue that one of the key benefits of these decorations in urban centers is their ability to transform gray, monotonous spaces into more attractive environments. Concrete buildings, sidewalks, and roads often feel cold and impersonal, but the addition of colorful flowers has completely changed the city’s atmosphere, making it feel more pleasant. Furthermore, incorporating ornamental plants into city centers positively impacts residents’ health. Urban greenery, such as hanging floral decorations, potted plants, and flower meadows, enhances both the physical and mental well-being of residents, thereby improving the overall quality of life.

In the future, the symbolic significance of flowers will continue to resonate within Addis Ababa’s cultural landscape. Floral patterns inspired by hibiscus and bougainvillea are expected to flourish, embodying the beauty and resilience of the nation. These blossoms will become increasingly central to the branding of Ethiopian tourism, with their vibrant hues capturing the allure and tropical essence of the country.

Mekonnen Solomon is Horticulture Export Coordinator at Ministry of Ethiopian Agriculture

Cross Border Seamless Travel Is Closer Than You Think, But Data Rules Need to Catch Up

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Picture this: no passport to dig out, no boarding pass to scan. You walk into the airport, look into a camera, and head straight
This isn’t a futuristic fantasy. It’s the vision shaping the next generation of air travel. And while parts of it are already in motion, one big hurdle remains: data.
The Digital Passport Is Ready, Just Not Fully Ready for Take-off
At the heart of this transformation is the Digital Travel Credential (DTC), developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The DTC is a digital replica of your passport, securely stored and ready to be shared at the tap of a screen.
But here’s the catch: the current version of the DTC packages all your passport information – name, number, nationality, date of birth – into one file. That works well for border agencies, who need the full picture. But airlines? They typically only require a few basic details to complete check-in and security screening.
Sharing the entire passport file just to access your name and date of birth isn’t just inefficient, it’s a legal problem in many jurisdictions. Under data protection laws like the EU’s GDPR, collecting more personal information than necessary is a breach.
So, while the technology exists to streamline your journey, the way it’s set up is slowing progress down.
The Solution: Give Only What’s Needed
The fix lies in a principle known as data minimization: sharing only what’s essential, no more.
That means breaking your digital passport into encrypted “data envelopes”. Each envelope contains a single piece of information such as just your name, date of birth etc. When an airline needs to verify your age, they request that envelope and nothing else. The rest of your data stays sealed unless you explicitly consent to share it.
This gives travelers control. Participation is voluntary and transparent. Refuse consent, and you fall back to the manual process we use today. Say yes, and your airport journey becomes seamless.
There are two possible paths forward:
• ICAO could update the DTC standard to allow selective data release.
• Or, offer technical guidance to help implement data minimization within the existing framework.
Either route would unlock huge efficiencies without compromising on privacy. By ICAO adapting the DTC or providing guidance so it can be implemented in a way that allows secure, selective data sharing, fully seamless travel will be closer to reality.
The Industry Isn’t Sitting Still
While global standards take time to update, the aviation industry is already moving forward. Airlines, airports, and governments are piloting digital identity programs (using different forms of digital ID) and biometric journeys built around the principles of consent and minimal data use.
IATA’s One ID framework is central to this momentum. One ID defines how a digital identity like the DTC can be used in practice: verifying passengers, securing consent, and enabling a paperless journey from curb to gate.
Progress is accelerating:
• IATA has conducted successful trials proving that digital-first travel experiences are feasible today.
• Technology providers are developing digital wallets that integrate seamlessly with One ID.
• A transatlantic pilot is in the works, with countries exploring temporary agreements to enable cross-border trials of digital passports.
Governments are taking notice, too. The European Commission, for instance, proposed new rules in late 2024 to support digital identity for cross-border travel across the EU. Meanwhile, the OECD is mapping national digital ID frameworks to help guide global policy and interoperability efforts.
From Vision to Reality
Digital travel isn’t just an ambition, it’s already happening.
Take India’s Digi Yatra program. It’s live in over 20 airports and lets domestic passengers fly using only facial recognition linked to a verified digital ID. The entire journey, from terminal entry to boarding, is contactless and consent-based.
Globally, biometric systems are operational in more than 70 airports, streamlining passenger flows and enhancing security. And to help airlines navigate this new landscape, IATA has created a Contactless Travel Directory, which maps out where these services are available.
According to IATA’s 2024 Global Passenger Survey:
• Nearly half of passengers have already used biometric ID at the airport.
• Of those, 84% were satisfied with the experience.
• And 73% say they’d prefer biometrics over traditional passports and boarding passes in future.
The demand is clear. The infrastructure is emerging. And the industry is building toward scale.
Boarding Soon
So while your face and phone aren’t quite enough to get you through the airport yet, the trajectory is set. The technical runway is ready. All that’s needed now is regulatory clearance – the DTC to support data minimization. The era of digital-by-default travel is approaching final call. And this time, you might not need your passport to board.
Louise Cairney is IATA Head of Customer Experience and Facilitation