Clashes in the border town of Moyale have displaced more than 14,000 people and killed at least nine others, as violence between forces associated with Ethiopia’s Oromia and Somali regional administrations spreads to additional districts in southern Oromia.

According to a situation report published on October 26 by the Europe External Programme with Africa (EEPA), nine people were killed between October 22 and 23 after fighting erupted in Moyale, a town jointly administered by the two regional states. Thousands of Ethiopian nationals have also crossed into neighbouring Kenya to escape the violence.

The clashes followed escalating tensions between leaders of the Oromia and Somali regional states on October 18, reportedly linked to allegations that Somali regional officials had raised their region’s flag in the town without authorization.

The dispute has intensified longstanding administrative and territorial tensions in the area, with the latest fighting raising concerns about civilian safety, displacement and the potential for further instability along the Ethiopia-Kenya border.

The violence has reportedly spread beyond Moyale to three additional districts in southern Oromia: Gumi Eldallo, Wachile and Arero, according to the EEPA report. The expansion of the clashes has increased concerns about the humanitarian consequences for communities in the affected areas.

The displacement has also prompted a cross-border response. Kenya Red Cross has begun providing first-aid supplies and other essential assistance to displaced people, while Kenya Defence Forces troops have been deployed to the border following the escalation of tensions.

The number of people fleeing into Kenya highlights the growing regional implications of the violence, as neighbouring communities and authorities respond to the movement of civilians seeking safety.

The report did not provide a detailed breakdown of the displaced population or specify how many people had crossed into Kenya. It also did not identify the parties responsible for the reported deaths.

The developments in Moyale come amid a broader deterioration in security conditions across several parts of Ethiopia, where armed confrontations, drone strikes and protests have been reported in recent days.

In northwestern Tigray, a drone strike in Medebai Terrer on October 22 killed five people and injured others, according to the situation report. In South Gondar Zone of Amhara, another drone strike struck an elementary school on October 20, killing at least six children.

A separate drone strike in southeastern Tigray reportedly hit a parked truck and killed four people who were loading livestock.

The report also cited rising civilian casualties, displacement and abductions in Amhara, Gambella, Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz. The Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRCO) has called on federal and regional authorities to strengthen civilian protection, secure the release of abducted people and provide humanitarian assistance to displaced communities.

The multiple security crises have placed additional pressure on humanitarian response efforts, particularly in areas where conflict has disrupted livelihoods and access to essential services.

In Amhara’s Wag Hemra Zone, a severe drought has reportedly damaged about 90 percent of crops and livestock, deepening food insecurity amid continuing conflict. The situation illustrates the overlapping pressures facing vulnerable communities, where insecurity and climate-related shocks are undermining household livelihoods.

Moyale’s position along the Ethiopia-Kenya border makes the latest escalation particularly significant for regional security and humanitarian coordination. The movement of Ethiopian civilians into Kenya has created an immediate need for emergency assistance and protection for people fleeing the fighting.

Ethiopia is projected to post one of Africa’s strongest growth rates this year, but a new business report warns that inflation, foreign-exchange access, logistics and uneven security conditions could still determine whether investors convert opportunity into profit.

The African Business Chamber (AfBC) Ethiopia Economic Outlook for the third quarter of 2026 projects real GDP growth of 9.2 percent in 2026, supported by agriculture, mining and electricity generation. However, it also forecasts average consumer inflation of 11.8 percent, cautioning that headline growth will not automatically improve household purchasing power or business profitability.

The report, covering July to September 2026, says Ethiopia’s Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda is reshaping the business environment through foreign-exchange and monetary reforms, fiscal measures, financial-sector liberalisation and efforts to improve external debt sustainability. It credits the reforms with progress, but says imported fuel and fertiliser costs, debt-service obligations and security risks remain material uncertainties.
Ethiopia’s external trade remains heavily skewed. World Trade Organization data cited in the report put merchandise imports at about 16.77 billion US dollars in 2024, against exports of 3.65 billion dollars. Coffee alone accounted for roughly 48 percent of reported merchandise exports by value, underlining the country’s continued dependence on a narrow export base.

AfBC says this creates both vulnerability and opportunity. While coffee, oilseeds, pulses, horticulture and livestock remain central to export earnings, it identifies processing, packaging, quality assurance, storage, traceability and export logistics as areas where Ethiopian producers could capture more value.

The report also notes that China supplied about 32.6 percent of Ethiopia’s merchandise imports in 2024, while the European Union was the largest destination grouping for Ethiopian exports, taking about 28 percent.
Foreign direct investment inflows rose from 3.3 billion dollars in 2023 to 4.0 billion dollars in 2024, according to UNCTAD’s COMESA Investment Report 2025. But AfBC warns that the value of announced greenfield projects fell sharply, from three billion dollars to 801 million dollars, while the number of projects declined from 12 to seven.

The report says the figures show that investors should distinguish between investment inflows, new project announcements and completed productive capacity. It recommends validating demand, financing, counterparties and foreign-currency arrangements before committing capital.
The United Kingdom remains an established commercial partner. UK-Ethiopia trade in goods and services reached 808 million pounds in the four quarters to the second quarter of 2025, with UK exports accounting for 497 million pounds and imports from Ethiopia 311 million pounds, according to the UK Department for Business and Trade.

Ethiopia’s eligibility for the UK’s Developing Countries Trading Scheme may offer tariff advantages for qualifying exports, although AfBC stresses that benefits depend on product-specific rules of origin, certification, labelling and customs requirements.
AfBC identifies agribusiness and food processing, renewable energy, industrial machinery and maintenance, cold-chain and logistics, healthcare supplies, digital and financial technology, and selected mining-related services as priority areas for commercial investigation.

It says opportunities are strongest where companies can solve specific problems, such as reducing post-harvest losses, improving power reliability, cutting equipment downtime or strengthening export quality. The report advises foreign firms to begin with pilots, verified buyers and staged payment structures rather than large upfront investments.

Looking to 2026-2029, AfBC’s base case expects continued strong growth if reforms proceed and agricultural and electricity output remain supportive. The upside case depends on stronger exports, improved foreign-exchange functioning and better investment execution, while the downside case includes renewed inflation, security disruption, external shocks or reform delays.

“Ethiopia offers meaningful long-term potential through its scale, agricultural resources, energy development, industrial ambitions and regional significance,” the report concludes. “However, high projected growth does not remove the challenges of inflation, foreign-exchange access, logistics, security and regulatory execution.”

Ethiopia remains categorized as “Not Free” in the latest Freedom on the Net 2026 report by Freedom House, reflecting ongoing concerns over prolonged internet disruptions, restrictions on digital expression, and systemic barriers to online rights.
​Ethiopia earned a score of 30 out of 100 in the annual assessment, placing it among the lowest-rated nations among the 38 countries evaluated.

The report, titled Seismic Shifts on the Global Internet, covers developments between June 1, 2025, and May 31, 2026, measuring access to the internet, availability of information, and freedom of expression without state interference.

​The low rating underscores a growing divergence between Ethiopia’s expanding digital infrastructure and its protection of user rights. While expanding connectivity remains critical for economic development, financial inclusion, and public service delivery, Freedom House noted that persistent connectivity restrictions continue to disrupt basic communication and economic activity.

​A key focus of the report’s regional analysis is Ethiopia’s history of localized connectivity blackouts. The assessment highlights the extensive telecommunications shutdown imposed in the Tigray region following the outbreak of conflict in November 2020. Lasting over two years, it remains the longest subnational blackout recorded in the report’s history.

​Freedom House detailed how prolonged service disruptions hindered humanitarian aid operations, restricted media reporting, and hampered basic family communications. The report also cataloged other major historical disruptions across the country, including an 818-day blackout in Tigray, a 347-day disruption in Amhara starting in August 2023, and earlier multi-month blackouts in Oromia. These figures encompass both total blackouts and targeted mobile or broadband throttlings during periods of political tension or conflict.

​Within Africa, Ethiopia’s score of 30 ranks behind nations such as Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, and The Gambia. Under Freedom House’s methodology, scores below 40 denote a “Not Free” environment, 40 to 69 indicates “Partly Free,” and 70 to 100 signifies “Free.”

​Freedom House reported that global internet freedom declined for the 16th consecutive year, with conditions deteriorating in 16 of the 38 monitored nations. Estonia retained its position as the world’s most open digital environment with a score of 91, while China and Myanmar remained the most restrictive.

​Beyond network shutdowns, the 2026 report identified emerging global challenges to digital rights, including the misuse of artificial intelligence for content manipulation and overly broad online safety regulations. While the report does not accuse Ethiopia of adopting specific invasive AI or age-verification laws, it cautions that such regulatory frameworks pose growing risks to privacy and press freedom worldwide.

​Freedom House calls for governments to uphold open internet access, implement independent oversight on digital surveillance, and ensure all online restrictions remain transparent, proportionate, and legally justified.

Ethiopia is seeking to improve its logistics performance and international competitiveness as it prepares to host the 101st FIATA World Congress in October 2027, according to the Ethiopian Freight Forwarders and Shipping Agents Association (EFFSAA).

Ethiopia ranks 126th out of 160 countries in the World Bank’s Global Logistics Performance Index, EFFSAA President Dawit Wubeshet said, describing the position as low given the country’s population, land area and level of development.

Dawit said investment in infrastructure and digitalization is needed to improve customs procedures and overall logistics performance. He noted that changes have been made in customs, aviation and transportation in recent years, adding that the association is monitoring a proposal to reassess the country’s ranking.

An assessment conducted by EFFSAA places Ethiopia at 90th, Dawit said, but added that further improvements are needed for the country to rank among the top 60. The association said logistics performance is assessed against five main criteria.

The call for improvements comes as Ethiopia prepares to host the FIATA World Congress in Addis Ababa from October 4 to 8, 2027. The event is expected to attract more than 2,000 participants, including logistics professionals, industry leaders, investors and international trade stakeholders.

As part of the preparations, Ethiopian Airlines has signed a sponsorship agreement with EFFSAA to become a Platinum Sponsor of the congress. The agreement was announced during a press briefing and is expected to support efforts to promote Ethiopia’s logistics industry and strengthen its position in global trade and supply chains.

The FIATA Talking Stick was formally handed over from Italy to Ethiopia during the organization’s World Congress in Milan, marking the transition to Ethiopia as the next host country.

EFFSAA said the congress will offer an opportunity to showcase the country’s logistics capabilities, attract investment, strengthen international business partnerships and promote African trade and regional integration. The association called on the government, private sector, development partners and other stakeholders to support the event.

Established in 1998, EFFSAA has about 110 members representing freight forwarders and shipping agents.