The Russophobia doctrine, which is still promoted, decade after its inception, is becoming dangerous by the day. When the presidents of the two most nuclearized states of the world system try to ease tensions between their respective countries, one would think this longed-for move would receive a warm welcome by all and sundry. To the surprise of many good willing people across the globe, the general assessment of the Washington political establishment about the Helsinki Summit was quite disturbing, to say the least! Instead of celebrating the ‘breaking of the ice’, a good portion of the players in the deep state became furious and visibly lost their usual contrived balance. If this consternation were centered on the account of selected issues and their deliberations, it would have been somewhat understandable, but it wasn’t!
It seems what has distressed the Washington political establishment that is under the direct diktat of the deep state was the fact that these two leaders were able to meet and discuss issues, (Syria, etc.) without much interference from anyone, including aides. Poor president Trump was at his wits’ end trying to rectify his statement (misread double negative) given at the Helsinki press conference. It was pathetic to see the president of the most powerful country verbally maneuvering his way to calm entrenched interests who do not want détente with Russia. To those novices innocent in the ways of the deep state, the message that is coming from Washington should be quite clear and instructive, even if it is dangerous (treasonous, etc.) If all efforts towards global peace have to be screened and preapproved by the same entities engaged (directly or indirectly) in promoting conflicts and dominations the world over, humanity’s already fragile existence would become even more precarious. Here again is our definition of the deep state, which we believe is more comprehensively descriptive. Deep state = the military-intelligence-industrial-banking-media-complex!
Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) readily available both in Russia and USA are mindboggling. Sadly, the ultimate decision to kinetically employ these arsenals still resides within the jurisdiction of the broader politicos. We consider this to be one of the gravest, if not the gravest shortcoming of the prevailing world order. Those of us who appreciate the immense destructive power of these human concoctions (WMD) sincerely believe in the establishment of a number of soberly inclined global and local institutions whose exclusive preoccupation would be WMD! It is hoped such institutions (composed of apolitical people representing all walks of global life) and their mechanisms will evolve in due course. Unfortunately such desirable instrument of political governance is currently unavailable to the world at large. Experience dictates the likes of the IAEA an intergovernmental organization (International Atomic Energy Agency, a UN outfit based in Vienna) will not be sufficient, going forward! Given such a scenario, all those concerned about global peace should be vigilante in protecting humanity from the recurrent stupidity of establishment politicos who are, by and large, devoid of the capacity to fully comprehend the bigger notion of creation, while myopically obsessing parochial interests/politics! Contrary to the view of the deep state, what the politicos in DC are displaying, particularly in regards to global peace efforts, might not help them win coming elections. The whole idea of a potential peace accord (which might not even be secured) is being foreclosed, a priori, by the deep state. This can only spell trouble to the reigning hegemon!
Even at the level of unconscious (we can even say ignorant at times) politicking, the current behavior of a significant portion of the political establishment in Washington DC, is bound to have a boomerang effect, say come next election. The sheeple (human mass) might not be well versed about modernity’s myriad complex issues, but it still retains the faculty, unlike the politicos, to segregate the chaff from the wheat! To the sheeple, war is bad and should be avoided while peace is good and must be pursued relentlessly. Non-stop war mongering might have had its days, say during the heydays of the cold war, but today the global sheeple is much more aware of the machination of the deep state. In the US, unthinkable issues (only few years ago), like the advocacy of ‘permanent peace’, not temporal ‘anti-war’ movements, ‘social democracy’, incorporating universal healthcare, free college education, affordable housing, equity, etc. have started to surface on the political fronts. These concerns have increasingly become campaign platforms for many newcomers to the political game. Don’t be surprised if incumbents advocating for entrenched interests are dumped in favor of more progressive candidates, all across the USA, just like the Bronx election!
Blinded by greed, the masterminds of project ‘Russiagate’ have become incapable of distinguishing between war and peace! Even countries in the EU, to say nothing about other nations, are concerned about the collective sanity of staunch advocates within the deep state. We say, don’t sweat the little things; like, hacking, bugging, election rigging, regime changing, etc. The US is already ‘Numero Uno’ in all the above, and no flimsy project as ‘Russia’s election interfering’ can dislodge it from its top position. Rather, think about the huge scare of cold war that might swiftly turn hot between nuclear powers.
“If we’re going to solve many of the problems facing our world, then we’re going to have to find ways to cooperate in pursuit of shared interests. The Summit with Russia was a great success, except with the real enemy of the people, the Fake News Media. I look forward to our second meeting so that we can start implementing some of the many things discussed, including stopping terrorism, security for Israel, nuclear proliferation, cyber attacks, trade, Ukraine, Middle East peace, North Korea and more. There are many answers, some easy and some hard, to these problems…but they can ALL be solved.” President Donald Trump.
Good Day!
RUSSOPHOBIA
Private banks surpass public banks in capital
Construction and housing sector becomes top beneficiary
The public financial enterprises leave their dominance for the first time to the private banks in terms of capital. The fresh loan disbursement is boosted by the leading private financial institution.
As per the second quarter economic review of National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), the construction and housing loan disbursement climbed at the top growing at a rate of 130 percent from its ordinary share of 10 percent from the total loan allocation.
The second quarter report of NBE shows that the giant public financial firms leave their dominance in terms of the supply of fresh loan supply and capital in the banking system.
Before the stated quarter of 2020/21, the public financial firms, which are two, their capital have been at the top by over half of the total amount.
However, in the second quarter of the current financial year the state banks capital share has dropped from half of the total capital in the banking industry. The 17 private banks collectively took the lion’s share for the first time in the history of financial industry which opened for competition in mid 1990s.
According to the NBE quarterly report that covers October, November and December 2020, the total capital of the banking system amounted to 120.8 billion birr, of which state owned banks accounted for 48.1 percent and private banks 51.9 percent.
For instance the capital share of public financial enterprises in the first quarter of the same fiscal year was 50.9 percent and 52.9 percent at second quarter of last financial year.
Meanwhile, the state giant Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) capital is still leading the sector, its share has declined significantly compared with its position in the preceding period.
In the second quarter of 2019/20 and first quarter of 2020/21 CBE’s capital share in the banking system has stood at 45.9 percent and 44.3 percent respectively that has now shrunk to 41.7 percent in the reported quarter.
From the total 120.8 billion birr capital in the banking system, which climbed by 8 billion birr compared with the preceding quarter, the share of public banks that includes Development Bank of Ethiopia is 58 billion birr, while the CBE share from the stated amount is 50.3 billion birr with small sum increment compared with the preceding quarter.
The capital share of the private banks in the other face which has stretched by fresh 7.1 billion birr compared with the first quarter that ended on September 30, 2020 and stood at 62.7 billion birr.
During the review quarter, 100.4 billion birr was disbursed in fresh loans, indicating a 51.5 percent annual increase. The amount that disbursed in the stated period is not only very high compared with the same period of last year but it is massively increased compared with several quarter in the near past including the preceding three months.
Similar to the preceding quarter, the private banks share has stood at the top unlike the experience of the past financial year and even before that.
According to the NBE quarterly review, of the total new loans disbursed, the share of state owned banks was 40.5 percent and that of private banks was 59.5 percent.
However, the fresh loan disbursement has registered a history in terms the category of beneficiary sector.
In this regard the construction and housing sector has become a top receiver of the fresh loan by beating the traditional sectors like domestic and international trade, and industry sector.
Most of the time the housing and construction sector takes about ten percent of fresh loan, while the sectors mentioned above competing each other to be atop but they were always the top threes.
For instance in the second quarter of the past financial year the international trade, domestic trade and industry set at the top respectively and followed by housing and construction sector. Similarly, in the first quarter of this year the domestic and international trade and industry were leading the access to fresh loan by 21.2 percent, 19.7 and 17 percentages. The share of the construction and housing business was 9.3 percent or 5.1 billion birr with fourth position in the first quarter.
But this time around the construction and house sector has written new history by becoming the major beneficiary in the second quarter that ended on December 31 for the access to fresh loan.
The NBE economic review indicated that the share of construction and housing was 23.4 percent or 23.5 billion birr. In terms of value it has increased by 460 percent that compared with the preceding quarter allocation. In the first quarter the construction and house sector received 5.1 billion birr.
For the reported second quarter the construction business is followed by domestic trade (17.5 billion birr or 17.4 percent), international trade (16.8 billion birr) and industry (15.1 billion birr) for access to fresh loan.
Almost all of the sectors have received huge amount of loan due to the spike of total fresh loan amount.
It was recalled that the second quarter was part of the demonization, which commenced mid September 2020 and stayed for three months. NBE had stated that huge amount of money had been coming to the banking system because of the demonization that was supported by different directives to keep the cash into banks. Due to that banks enabled to amass huge amount of resource that is reflected by fresh loan disbursement.
In the second quarter the broad money supply (M2 ) stood at 1.2 trillion birr showing a 23.9 percent growth over the corresponding quarter of last fiscal year owing to 114.9 percent growth of domestic credit offsetting the 8.9 percent contraction of external asset. The M2 was 1.1 billion birr in the first quarter of the same financial year.
Component wise, quasi-money supply exhibited 27.2 percent annual and 4.9 percent quarterly expansion while narrow money supply (M1) saw 17.7 percent growth on annual and 16.7 percent contraction in quarterly terms.
Year-on-year basis, M1 contributed 25.9 percent and quasi money 74.1 percent to M2 growth.
The growth in quasi-money supply was attributed bank branch expansion and improved service outreach, currency demonetization and cash withdrawal limit set by the National Bank of Ethiopia.
The quasi-money supply, which is mainly included saving deposits and time deposits has stood at 787 billion birr by 4.9 percent increments compared with the preceding quarter.
From the M1 that contributed 390.5 billion birr for the M2 the currency outside banks has back to the preceding period position rather than continuing on lower position of the past quarter.
In the first quarter, which was the period that NBE emplaced different directives like cash withdrawal limit and demonization, the amount of currency outside banks has been shrunken to 65 billion birr from 109 billion birr of the last quarter of 2019/20 financial year.
Meanwhile, the currency outside banks in the second quarter of 2020/21 has returned to 108 billion birr by increment of 67.5 percent from the first quarter and 9.8 percent of the same period of last year.
Average savings deposit rate stood at 8 percent and weighted average time deposit rate decreased by 0.27 percent while average lending rate was 14.25 percent year-on-year basis. Weighted average yield on T-bills has increased by 6.25 percentage point over last year same quarter. Yet, considering the 18.2 percent headline inflation in December 2020, real interest rates on deposit, lending and T-bill yields remained negative.
Defense Forces narrows operation in Tigray
The law enforcement of operation of the National Defense force carried out in Tigray has concentrated its focus in two areas. The global claim of hunger at the region has been ridiculed by government, meanwhile, various organizations are providing several support in different forms for the people who need it, with the extended support of international and local partners.
Press Secretary for the Office of the Prime Minister Billene Seyoum said the counter insurgency operations by the National Defense Force are now concentrated only in two areas where the outlawed operatives are active. “This phase is expected to be finalized soon,” the press secretary remarked.
She said that the outlawed group is occasionally undertaking attacks outside of these areas to give the impression of control and that the region is unstable, “however the operation is focused on two primary areas to apprehend the terrorizing elements.”
She said that most part of the region is accessible creating conducive environment to reach the needy. Moreover, Billene said that the government and partners are providing aid for 93 woredas in the region. Regarding food aid more than 166,000 metric tons of foods at the cost of over 5.2 billion birr that has been distributed by government which covers 70 percent of the distribution.
Delivery of food and non food items for 4.5 million people on the first round and 4.3 million people on the second and third rounds have been conducted by the government and partners. Regarding health related support, she said that similar support has been provided for community that is in need.
She ridiculed the global claim of hunger which is being used as a weapon of war siting that such claims are baseless and politically motivated.
The government has also accused the international community for ignoring criminal acts that is made by the terrorist group.
Even if the criminal enterprise had provoked the Northern Command post of the country and forced the federal government to take up the operation, the far-fetched and politically motivated international accusations have been reinforced against Ethiopia, the Press Secretary reminded.
Billene said that all the aforementioned devilish acts of the terrorist group have been overlooked, omitted and disregarded by the international community.
“The global community has failed to realize the conspicuous facts and atrocities committed by the TPLF criminal enterprise in Ethiopia,” she said.
The warmongering narrative, overt belligerence exhibited by the criminal enterprise for several months preceding their attacks on the Northern Command of the Ethiopian Defense Force have all been denied, the press secretary underlined.
Billene also reminded that “war is our traditional dance” has been a commonly stated theme of the terrorist group.
She says the international community is misguided on the Tigray affair. “The culprits are lobby firms which supported disinformation campaigns and false narratives lodged by sympathizers of the criminal enterprise outside of Ethiopia,” she underpins.
She criticized fabricated narratives and data are shared by creditable institutions without the foresight and examination of authenticity of claims and allegation, and she mentioned some snapshots that international organizations are shared without making sure whether it is true or disinformation.
She has also reminded that the international media outlets do reports against the reality and context on the ground.
Attorney General Gedion Timothewos, said that the legal measures and making sure the illegal actors to be accountable on legal means have been continued.
Rejuvenating coffee in Oromia
Oromia has continued the expansion of seedling coffee and replacement of decades-old trees. The region is also establishing four khat trading centers to modernize the stimulant leaf business.
In its recent article, the World Bank (WB) said that almost 80 percent of Ethiopia’s 1 million hectares of coffee trees are underproductive because the trees are not trimmed often enough.
The WB article says the quality of Ethiopian coffee isn’t the problem. About 95% of production from the country’s diverse coffee varieties is organic, traditionally cultivated without the use of pesticides and fertilizers. Demand isn’t the issue either.
But it questions why is Ethiopia’s coffee productivity lagging behind other leading coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia and Vietnam? The problem boils down to a lack of pruning.
Shimelis Abdisa, President of Oromia region, said that unlike the preceding trend for the past couple of years the regional administration has given fundamental attention for the bean production and productivity.
“In general, previously, the Ethiopian government was only generating revenue from coffee but not invested on it. The farmer was the only actor on the total production activity,” he said.
The WB said that the low productivity of Ethiopia’s coffee trees poses an obvious problem for the more than 2 million smallholder farmers dependent on coffee production for their livelihoods.
Shimelis said due to different reason including the trading scheme, the farmers’ revenue from the bean have been declaimed that led them to cut the coffee bush and replace them with alternative profitable crops.
“Based on understanding the farmers and the sector challenges, the regional government is acting to come up with a solution,” the regional President said.
“In our region for the last two years we have introduced three major changes on the sector. Basically we have improved the marketing system by creating alternative trading for Ethiopian Commodity Exchange by issuing an export license for the farmer enabling them for direct export which also contributed to reduce the illegal trade,” Shimelis told Capital.
“The new trading plays a key role. It has shown positive results for instance the price of red cherry that was 12 birr per kg in the past has now reached at 30 birr because of the new scheme,” he explained.
The other initiative introduced in the past two years was rejuvenating and replacing the aged and unproductive coffee trees by new seedling.
The regional President said that the coffee trees in the region are aged up to 40 year, which is a factor for small harvest.
“Rejuvenate existing trees by trimming and replacing of the old trees and seedling new coffee trees in new areas has been conducted for the past two years,” he said.
“In 2019, we have planted over 800 million new coffee seedlings, 900 million in last year and in this rainy season we will plant 1.1 billion coffee trees in the region,” Shimelis elaborated.
The World Bank article said that different initiative have been involved to elevate the challenges like Stumping involves pruning older and less productive trees down to just a stump. “This stimulates the growth of new sprouts that develop into new branches within a few months,” it added.
According to the region’s plan, the target is increasing the coffee export by two folds in minimum in the coming few years. “In the past budget year for instance for the first time in the region the coffee export have increased by 17 percent and in this year it is expected to climb to 19 percent,” he explained.
In the coming budget year the export is estimated to be boosted by 25 percent because the seedling that was planted two years ago will have started production.
The price increment at farmer’s level under one of the three pillar of change for the sector has also discouraged the illegal market. The effect on the illegal channel shall contribute to attain the target set for the coming year.
“In the coming up to four years we estimated to expand the export at least by double,” he said.
On average the country hard currency generation from the bean was USD 700 million that surpassed USD 800 million, “for this year that will end on July 7, the generation from the sector is expected to reach over a USD one billion as per the current trend.”
Shimelis argued the idea that the coffee trees are being replaced by khat in some part of Oromia, which is the major source of coffee. He said that farmers supposed to be beneficiary from their agricultural practices so that they shall shift on any profitable activities, “the solution is improving their livelihood and tackling the bottlenecks to keep them on their traditional cultivation, meanwhile the issue shall not be a major concern.”
He said Ethiopia has ample land for coffee, khat, avocado or other plantation, “due to that it is not our concern of replacing coffee by khat. The focus area for farmers is their benefit. Farmers shall replace coffee by eucalyptus tree for economic value,” he elaborated.
“The core issue is improving the price for coffee producers that encourage them to continue on their usual activity,” he added.
He said that the region is also working aggressively to change the market and productivity for the stimulant leaf like coffee, which is the major source of one third of the country hard currency and one fourth of jobs created.
“We are also working to improve the khat market, which is captured by illegal middlemen and profited them rather than the producers,” he explains, adding, “we are strongly working to pushing out the illegal actors for the benefit of farmers.”
To improve the khat market; trading centers are developing at Awoday, Bedessa, Addis Ababa and the other will be in Dire Dawa to which the construction work will commence soon.
The trading facilities will have standard storage area, packaging centre and other facilities on the aim to keep the export quality.
The productivity is also the focus area to expand the production and export.
According to Shimelis, the country is generating huge amount hard currency from khat that is grown by 26 percent for export in this yea.
“Our farming has four goals; food security, export expansion, import substitution and job creation,” he concluded.
