In the wake of recent anti-government protests, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appears to have put his weight behind President Hasan Rouhani’s repeated calls for reduced military and Revolutionary Guards involvement in the economy. Ayatollah Khamenei signaled his support by ordering the military and the Revolutionary Guards to start divesting from commercial holdings and businesses that are not related to their core tasks. The only exception is for construction projects considered essential by the government.
According to economic analysts, the order is a significant development. This applies all the more so as it addresses protesters’ grievances that were sparked in part by losses suffered by millions of Iranians as a result of the collapse of fraudulent financial institutions with links to the Revolutionary Guards and other public institutions. These financial entities lured investors with high interest rates that they could not pay.
They also noted that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s order could also sweeten Iranian efforts to persuade Europe to put in place legal measures that would allow its companies to invest in the Islamic republic even if the United States imposes new sanctions and withdraws from the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear program. Europe shares the concern about the role of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East.
A target of United States sanctions, the Revolutionary Guards reportedly are not opposed to a reduced stake that, according to analysts, accounts for as much as 30% of the Iranian economy. Like the Ethiopian Army conglomerate, METEC, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards operate, among others, a huge construction company with tens of thousands of employees that is involved in civil development, the oil industry and defense businesses. The Revolutionary Guards also build roads, operate ports, manage telecommunication networks and own business in sectors as far flung as finance and medical.
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an Iran analyst, commentator and business consultant stated that the “top brass have realized that running companies is actually not their competency. The poor management has been a drag on the economy and, as seen in the recent protests, a risk to internal security and to the prestige of the armed forces”.
In a world in which everything is interlinked, disinvestment by the Revolutionary Guards and military as well as other public institutions like the Social Security Organization, Iran’s largest pension fund, would involve steps toward privatization. That is difficult in a country that has problems to attract any foreign investment because of the threat of a re-imposition of United States sanctions that were conditionally lifted as part of the nuclear agreement.
Donald Trump, the United States President, has threatened not to renew United States sanctions relief in next May if Europe and the United States Congress failed to work towards an agreement with Iran on an addition to the nuclear accord. It was widely reported that President Trump wants to restrict Iranian missile testing and development, provide for expanded inspections of Iranian facilities and extend prohibitions on nuclear-weapons work. Iran insists that the accord cannot be renegotiated.
Europe has been pressing the Trump administration not to walk away from the accord. Iranian officials, for their part, have suggested that Tehran would adhere to the nuclear deal in case of a United States walkout provided that it served its interests.
European Middle East scholars argued that for Iran to see continued merit in the nuclear deal, it would have to believe that European companies would remain interested in investing in the Islamic Republic of Iran. That would require the European Union adopting legislation that would shield European companies from United States secondary sanctions that would target non-American entities invested in Iran.
Privatization of military and Revolutionary Guards-owned companies, given Iran’s undercapitalised financial markets and its small pool of viable domestic investors, would depend on foreign investors, who in turn are unlikely to risk being penalized by potential renewed secondary United States sanctions.
Iran expert Ellie Geranmayeh said “Europe should put in place a viable contingency plan if the United States continues backtracking on the deal and let Washington know it’s ready to use it. Europe will need to present a package together with China and Russia that can entice Iran to continue abiding by the core elements of the current nuclear agreement”.
According to Ellie Geranmayeh, in practice, European companies, if forced to choose between doing business with the United States or Iran, would undoubtedly opt to steer clear of the Islamic republic. As it stands, the EU is banking on the expectation that the Trump administration would ultimately opt to compromise in a bid to avoid a deterioration of trans-Atlantic relations. In the meantime, European investors, like their Russian and Chinese counterparts, are likely to take a wait-and-see attitude.
Ellie Geranmayeh further noted that, in turn, could put efforts to reduce the military and Revolutionary Guards’ economic stake in jeopardy. Iran would find itself caught between a proverbial rock which is lacking Iranian transparency, and a hard place which is weak domestic financial markets and a limited pool of investors. If that weren’t tough enough, Saudi Arabian efforts to counter Iran could further dampen foreign investor appetite.
Saudi Arabian media widely reported the fact that in a sign of the times, one South Korean Engineering and Construction company in which Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has a 38 percent stake, cancelled a $1.6 billion contract to build a steel mill in Iran because of objections by the company’s two Saudi board members.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, US Sanctions, Economic Thinking
OUR CHAOTIC FUTURE
We can visualize human social formations with the aid of concentric circles. One can think of the inner most circle as containing the individual in society. The next circle can be thought of as the domicile of the family (extended or not), the next one as harboring the community (homogenous or not), then comes the circle where the modern nation-state resides. The final large circle represents the domain of global human community. It is with the circle of the community human diversity comes into being. Modern cosmopolitan communities tend to contain a multitude of nationalities and ethnic groupings. Here, tribalism & ethnicism, even racism tend to be tempered/diffused or the general notion of identity politics somewhat subdued. Traditionally and by and large, communities usually consist of homogenous tribes, but modern nation-states, being products of turbulent human histories, almost always contain mixed communities!
Modernity has imposed its values on all these concentric circles, per force. Human relations, in whichever circle we are dealing with, are mostly dictated by the logic of capital, establishment rhetoric aside! The modern world system has created these non-human values (even anti-human/anti-nature) to facilitate its main objective–accumulation at whatever cost. Other natural human tendencies have become increasingly subservient to this dominant edict that operates all over the world. Even those with metaphysical inclinations (established religions, etc.) are not spared from this dangerous malaise. Consequences are now upon us. Callous exploitation of non-renewable resources, destruction of life support systems throughout the breadth and depth of the planet, economic and social polarization (racism/ethnicism, sexism, etc.,) are all leading to conflicts within and between the circles as described above!
As the crisis of modern world deepens, the usually tempered conflicts within and between the circles are becoming more intense. As greed is the main operating principle of the prevailing world system, alternative/altruistic approaches to problem solving are not entertained or welcomed by the global status quo. The important thing to consider at this point in time (in the world system) is; easy accumulation might not be easy going forward. Reasons abound. To start with, resources are dwindling fast, including the most critical one of fossil fuel, on which the whole edifice of the modern world is built. Secondly, the current demand of the global sheeple is such that wages and taxes can only go up. Thirdly, unrelenting damages to the global environment/ecology (by the greed system) will be resisted by the awakening global humanity. All these and more, add to costs, hence, profit will decline precipitously. Since the overriding concern of TPTB (the power that be) is only incessant accumulation (to what end we don’t know) the future looks very bleak, to say the least. Currently some politicos of the powerful nations are threatening to instigate wars that can potentially utilize WMD (weapons of mass destruction), including nuclear weapons! Greed blinded system might not be able to save humanity from the impending chaos and catastrophes, unless the logic of capital is replaced by the logic of life!
The built-in greed of the system, coupled with technology, is accelerating our demise. Instead of advanced technologies being used to liberate humanity from the elements, they are efficiently employed to subjugate the totality of the human spirit to the prevailing avarice! The psychos occupying state power continue to fight all attempts at liberation. They eagerly work to eliminate alternative views from taking hold of the sheeple’s imagination. The unstated intention of the ‘deep state’ and their followers is to zombify the sheeple (human mass). Opioids, numbing entertainments, spectator sports, etc. are all employed to subdue initiatives that might arise from below. Many of the current tech gadgets take precious time away from more fulfilling human engagements, to say nothing about their role as surveillance instruments, to help TPTB monitor each and every activity of the sheeple. Escape from this suffocating and deadening reality might not be possible, so long as the sheeple is willing to do what is expected of it by TPTB. The dystopian novel of George Orwell ‘1984’ presciently anticipated this prevailing totalitarianism way back in the 1940s! See Chengu’s article next column and others on page 41 & 44.
“A human being is part of a whole, called by us the ‘Universe,’ a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest-a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circles of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.” Albert Einstein. Good Day!
Six month timeline for SOE not set in stone
Transition going smoothly gov’t says
During a meeting with the diplomatic community last week, the Ethiopian government hinted that the state of emergency may not last long and could be repealed after the new Prime Minister comes to power, Capital learnt from diplomatic sources.
The meeting held on Tuesday February 20 between the diplomatic community and diplomats sent to Ethiopia from other countries, mainly focused on state of emergency and recent resignation of the Prime Minister.
The diplomatic community raised some questions and concerns about the situation in the country in a closed door session, according to sources.
In his initial speech Workneh Gebeyehu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, told the diplomatic community that the transition is going smoothly and the country is becoming stable. According to diplomatic sources, in the closed session the chief diplomat of Ethiopia said that the state of emergency many not last long. This week many of Ethiopia’s allies made statements criticizing the state of emergency.
In the discussion of the diplomats from a country that has a strong partnership with Ethiopia claimed that frequently imposing a state of emergency can affect the country’s image and cause foreign investors to loose trust. In addition to concerning those who have already invested, it can prevent people who were planning on coming from doing so, according to sources.
Workneh said that the state of emergency may not last long. “He said that ‘the new PM can act upon it’,” sources said.
He also stated that some of the embassies expressed their concern about the state of emergency but he insisted that it would be best to talk to his government and him before acting.
He also asked the diplomatic community for positive assistance during this time that he called ‘in this critical condition for the country’, sources said.
As of Friday February 16 the executive body implemented a state of emergency for six months. The parliament is expected to amend it when they return from break this week.
Immediately after the decree several government partners like the US, EU, Germany and the UK issued unusual statements criticizing the state of emergency.
EPRDF postpones congress again, Council to meet on Thursday
The highly anticipated congress of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is pushed for unspecified period, Capital learnt.
It is not disclosed why the meeting is postponed. However in the coming week the 180 member council of the ruling party is expected to meet in Addis Ababa. According to the information Capital obtained, the meeting is expected to focus on the assignment of the new party chairperson, who shall be the upcoming PM.
The ruling party regularly held its congress every two years in the past three decades. However the latest congress that was expected to be held in the coming month in Hawassa, 275km south of Addis Ababa, has been postponed again for unspecified period. It was initially planned to be held in September 2017 but was postponed to March 2018.
Sources told Capital that there is no preparation being done for the congress that is considered as a crucial event for the ruling front that set its policy and strategy besides electing executive committee, chair and deputy chair.
According to the rule of the party the congress has to be held at least every two and half years.
In the past couple of years the country’s political arena is registering significant and historical changes besides instability for the past two year.
A week ago the party chairman and Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced his resignation from both positions, while state of emergency has been placed a day after the PM announcement.
The release of several prominent political leaders and activists also happened in the past weeks.
The upcoming congress of the ruling party has been highly expected since rumors that indicated there is division with the party climbing. After the PM resignation the expectation for the congress has been heated.
