Opinion is currently divided on Ethiopia’s future.
On one hand of the spectrum, there are those who believe that Ethiopia is a train wreck, highly charged along ethnic lines and facing complex political and security problems. These skeptics highlight the persistent insecurity in many parts of the state.
This week’s violent murder of the project manager of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Semegnew Bekele, is yet another indicator of how fragile the security situation is. This incident has horribly unnerved Ethiopia, triggering anguish about the country’s national security capabilities.
Given the role Semegnew Bekele and the political dimension of the project, his murder was a profound shock to the public.
What will be the impact of this episode? We don’t know. But clearly people increasingly feel that criminal elements in Ethiopia are now able to operate with impunity.
On the other side of the equation, the optimists believe that Ethiopia, with its new leader Dr. Aby Ahmed, is paused to become the next emerging nation in Africa. These folks point to the new winds of change blowing across Ethiopia, they argue that the strong aspiration for unity, the high support of the international community, the peace accord with Eritrea, and the relatively high growth level, still make Ethiopia’s prospects look promising.
So, given such conflicting views, it is hardly surprising that the public is confused about Ethiopia. I am inclined to go with the optimists. And let me just take one issue: Eritrea. Now that the Party is over, how exactly should we deal with fallout from the peace truce?
In his book, “The Art of War”, Sun Tzu notes: “The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” There is a significant amount of strategy and doctrine over the years that have attempted to achieve these ends. I don’t know if the quote truly applies to the Ethio-Eritrea peace deal of last month, but when two belligerents come together to gain advantage without war, that’s when true success lies.
A Nobel prize for both PM Aby and President Isaias is no joke!
Why not!
They both deserve it, as opposed to, say, President Trump who thinks he should get the Nobel Prize for only brokering a potential peace?
Moreover, it looks like the PM is personally invested in engagement with Eritrea; for now TPLF may find it difficult to resist, whatever reservations they may have. – Wisdom dictates! The two countries should address and resolve the causes of tension and take all possible measures to avert future hostilities by adopting a system of binding rules that embody clarity, predictability, and equal applicability for their development.
One best way of doing this is to move on towards the establishment of a common market (by 2020 ) through the elimination of all trade barriers and the establishment of a common external trade policy. This is important not just to cement the peace, but also to promote integration for a lasting reconciliation of both countries, thereby reducing the potential for war. Both countries can also plan ahead to complete an economic and monetary union, which include the creation of a single currency (by 2022), while at the same time they coordinate or align their foreign and security policy and strengthen police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters.
Interesting timing for economic union, don’t you think?
Indeed, such a move would be a stunning evolution for Ethiopia. It would increase jobs, make us more competitive regionally and strengthen our cooperation with Eritrea, and even attract neighboring countries to join in the common market in the future.
True, free trade may not have been central to Ethiopia’s past economic policies, but this initiative with Eritrea can, in a modest way at least for now, provide further assurance of stability and prosperity.
Finally, don’t forget the big strategic picture. Our international security, in an ever more dangerous Red Sea region, is incalculably enhanced by having stable and friendly ally to our north. Reinforcing our commitment to shared prosperity with our Eritrean neighbors through a common market is the kind of reassurance Ethiopian leaders should advance.
So, there you have it. All the conditions are now in place for these two countries to call the negotiators, and move forward.
What Now for Ethiopia: Risks and Opportunities?
THE HORN
The ‘Horn of Africa’ consists of the countries of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Out of these four, Ethiopia covers the lion’s share of the geographical space. Ethiopia’s land area is estimated to be about 1.1 million square kilometers, while the smallest, Djibouti has 23 thousand square kilometers. Somalia’s land mass is just over half of Ethiopia’s, while that of Eritrea’s is around 117 thousand square kilometers. Population wise; Ethiopia again dominates the region, with about 105 million people. Somalia is next with about 14 million and then comes Eritrea with about 5 million. Djibouti’s total population is roughly one million. Collectively the Horn houses a total human population of about 125 million!
In regards to ethnic composition; Djibouti is predominantly Somalis (60%) and Afaris (35%). Eritrea is mostly Tigrays and Tigres, making about 85% of the population. These groups belong to the Semitic branch of the Afro-asiatic speaking people. The rest are from the Cushitic segment of the Afro-asiatic speakers. Somalia is 85% Somalis of various clans, and the rest are mostly of Bantu stock. Ethiopia is a kaleidoscope of ethnicity. Diverse ethnic groupings collectively number around 80. About 90 languages and dialects are spoken in Ethiopia. In regards to religion, 99.8% of the Somalis and 94% of the Djiboutian practice Islam. In Eritrea, the Christians number around 63% while the Moslems are around 36%, according to recent compilation by the Pew Research Center. 34% of Ethiopians are Moslems and 62% are Christians, amongst which 43.5% belong to the Ethiopian Orthodox Church.
The Horn is a semi-arid region, to a very large extent. Climate change, environmental degradation (loss of top soil, vegetation, etc.) as well as population explosion continue to affect all the territories of the Horn. These are common challenges that need serious cooperation by all states and peoples of the Horn. Limited agriculture is practiced in Somalia and Eritrea. The significant arable land in the region is found in Ethiopia. Even here, and given the ever-rising population, climate change, etc., structural food deficit has become an entrenched phenomenon. On top of these or may be because of these, wide spread droughts have become frequent and severe across the region. To arrest the on going and visibly increasing conflicts, which can easily lead to regional instability, serious collaborative initiatives must be braved by all and sundry. For a start, Horn wide meaningful population stabilization program must be launched in earnest. Feeding the existing 125 million strong is not easy; to say nothing about the future!
A lot must be done to bring lasting peace and harmony to the Horn. The sought after development of the region (always dangled in front of us) must be based on realistic assumptions predicated on the specificity of the locale. Cookie cutter proposals will not do, as we increasingly face the grave consequences of man-made and natural calamities. Make-believe narratives that do not hold water, should not be allowed to inform our major policy decisions. The nonsensical economic growth dogma, which doesn’t take into account the various limits to growth, must be replaced by more resilient paradigm. Admitted or not, deprivation is the order of the day in our so-called rising Africa. Daily, thousands of economic refugees flee Africa, desiring to enter the European Union. They feel their prospect at home is quite bleak. See the article on page 41. Such mass migration is obviously not sustainable. One should also note that the current migration crisis is exasperated because of the wars launched by empire in Libya and Syria!
Diversity is not always a problem, though it is always a challenge to manage it. Ethiopia remains one of the most diverse countries on earth and so far it had managed, willy-nilly, to survive. In contrast, relatively homogenous Somalia has been in utter chaos for the last three decades. Granted, bringing lasting peace/harmony to the Horn will be a formidable challenge. On the other hand and unlike before, the dominant interests of our world system seem to have reached a loose consensus as to the future of the Horn. If this assessment of ours is correct, what remains is: Can the Horn collectively leverage its strategic position to accrue peace and other dividends, going forward? See the article next column and others on page 44. We will examine similar Horny issues in our next installment “Willing is not enough; we must do. Knowing is not enough; we must apply.” Bruce Lee. Good Day!
E-Commerce and small and medium-sized enterprises
Recent socioeconomic progress in Africa has occurred in the context of ubiquitous information and communications technologies (ICTs). According to the International Telecommunication Union 2017 data, 67 percent of African population, estimated to be about 1.13 billion, now has mobile phones and 26.5 percent are now using the Internet. Policymakers and African development partners foresee a lot of possibilities in the opportunities made available by ICTs in the continent’s effort to stem widespread poverty and in the role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in that effort. In this context, over the last decade, African countries placed high priority on the development and implementation of national ICT policies and plans.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), SMEs account for 60 to 70 per cent of all employment in developing countries, and hence contribute to poverty reduction. In this regard, many countries in Africa have given high priority to the growth of SMEs. Kenya, for instance, released a major strategic plan, known as Vision 2030, in which ICTs and SMEs have been identified as major driving forces for its realisation. Similarly, Ethiopia, in its Growth and Transformation Plan has given top priority to micro and small enterprises, targeting to create employment opportunities for more than three million people and aiming to boost access to ICTs.
In recent years, the role of SMEs in economic development has grown in importance in Africa as the continent’s economic transformation gained momentum. Many countries are directing their strategic development towards industrialization through the growth of the local SME sector. The importance of SMEs in development and poverty reduction cannot be over emphasised.
According to UNCTAD recent data, these enterprises represent 99 per cent of all firms in developing countries, as well as play a significant role in creating employment opportunities. Another key factor supporting the need to focus on SMEs is that they tend to adapt more easily to technology compared to large enterprises. The adaption process in large enterprises is often slowed by a bureaucracy and a stricter hierarchy involved in making decisions. When SMEs are able to see the added benefits of using ICTs, they are more willing to adapt their businesses strategies.
The results of two e-commerce readiness assessments carried out in the Gambia and in Ethiopia under the Economic Commission of Africa (ECA) strengthen this proposition. Both studies suggest that there is general awareness of the potential in using the Internet for commerce among SMEs. Furthermore, due to widespread coverage and use of mobile phones, mobile commerce now provides more opportunities for SMEs, especially in rural areas.
For example, a study found that after remote communities in Uganda were provided with access to a mobile network, the share of bananas sold rose from 50 to 69 per cent of the crop. Established by TradeNet, Esoko, a company in Ghana, provides a mobile and web-enabled repository of current market prices and a platform to enable buyers and sellers to make offers and connect to one another. The World Bank report revealed that in this regard, a recent study of farmers with small landholdings in northern Ghana found that farmers had experienced a 10 per cent increase in revenue after they began receiving market prices from Esoko in the form of a short message service (SMS).
Goldman Sachs reported that globally, e-commerce sales are growing more than 19 per cent a year. Compared to large enterprises, SMEs have a low share of the global e-commerce market, however, they are increasingly adapting to the growing technological revolution and benefiting from the global online market.
E-commerce involves the sale or purchase of goods and services by businesses (business to business), individuals (business to consumer), governments (business to government) or other organizations, and is conducted over computer networks. It builds on traditional commerce by adding the flexibility and speed offered by electronic communications. This can facilitate efforts to enhance operations that lead to substantial cost savings, as well as increased competitiveness and efficiency through the redesign of traditional business methods.
Different studies indicated that both SMEs and large businesses have benefited from the adoption of e-commerce. Such benefits, inter alia, includes lower transaction costs; reduction in advertising and promotion costs; rapid communication between buyers and sellers; ability to reach new customers; shortening the traditional supply chains, including minimising transport obstacles and reducing delivery costs; and eliminating physical limitation of time and space. Empirical research shows that small enterprises that adopt e-commerce perform better than those that do not adopt it due to e-commerce’s catalytic effect on business performances.
There are several explanations for the slow diffusion of e-commerce in developing countries, in general, and in Africa, in particular. Economic Commission of Africa (ECA)-supported e-commerce readiness studies conducted in Ethiopia and in the Gambia, as well as other studies undertaken across the continent, broadly identify similar challenges pertaining to growth of e-commerce in Africa.
Affordable ICT infrastructure, particularly the Internet and broadband, is one of the key factors affecting the growth of e-commerce. Digital literacy among consumers and businesses in terms of computer literacy, language barriers, awareness of e-commerce benefits, lack of confidence and security in online transactions, including lack of a skilled workforce in e-commerce enterprises, are common in many countries. Limited delivery and distribution networks (physical transportation), in both Ethiopia and the Gambia, and the absence of proper street addressing and naming were raised as areas of concern in delivery.
Systems related to electronic payment, branding/recognition, and the issue of tracking, monitoring and taxation systems are also some of the challenges that affect the online transaction process. Legal frameworks to build security and trust are common issues that both consumers and businesses find difficult in adapting e-commerce as their business strategic tool. Ensuring legal and regulatory environments are critical for the complete functioning of e-commerce in a country.
Many SMEs have benefited from ICTs in their day-to-day business activities, including experiencing gains in enhanced productivity. However, due to lack and cost of access to Internet connectivity, many SMEs are not always tapping the full potential of the Internet. Furthermore, high-quality and reliable e-commerce requires advanced telecom services, such as broadband and mobile broadband services, at affordable prices to consumers.
Thus, governments and other partners need to take advantage of the opportunities that are emerging in the use of the new ICT landscape, particularly in innovations in mobile applications. Governments need to ensure that SMEs benefit not only from being connected to the Internet but also from any technological evolution that can increase the speed of data flows and can help reduce costs to consumers. Furthermore, much of the support to e-commerce depends on putting in place the right infrastructure, regulations and policies for e-commerce to thrive. In this regard, the role of government and the private sector is of paramount importance in realising this. Finally, a critical mass of workers with ICT skills is crucial for the further development of e-commerce and mobile applications. In this regard, governments can play an important role in ensuring that the education systems provide training of the necessary skills for building a viable digital economy.
Fine Art of the past, captive treasures of today
“African heritage cannot be a prisoner of European museums.” French President Macron
A couple months ago I did something I NEVER do. I saw a movie three times! The Black super hero hit, “Black Panther”, was released in January, earning a whopping 1.34 Billion USD. Accomplished actors, outstanding wardrobe and dynamic storylines were the fabric of the fictitious yet advanced African state, Wakanda. Atlanta Black Star’s David Love writes, “…”Black Panther” broached the subject of the theft of African cultural artifacts by European museums … character Erik “Killmonger” Stevens took a “war hammer” from a British Museum and asked the curator, “How do you think your ancestors got these? Do you think they paid a fair price? Or did they just take it … like they took everything else?” Those questions propelled the movie into an action packed film and food for thought on the current demand for the return of the stolen African artifacts, including the looted Maqdala Treasures. Amongst the stolen goods are numerous and invaluable art pieces, crowns, Tabots, manuscripts and a lock of Emperor Tewodros’ hair.
Benin’s President Patrice Talon requested the return of thousands of artifacts stolen by the former French colonizer between 1892 to 1894. This may have prompted French President Macron’s statement, “I cannot accept that a large part of cultural heritage from several African countries is in France.” However, the UK’s response is quite different. Ghana’s Asante ceremonial stools, swords, masks, rings and other precious items; considered the ‘largest collection of gold from Africa;’ sits in British museums with no plans for return. And while former Minister of Culture, Hirut Woldemariam, states, “We will use whatever legal and diplomatic instruments we have at hand to secure their return,” London is only interested in “lending” the artifacts to Ethiopia. WHAT?!
So despite UNESCO’s 1970 Convention on the Means of Prohibiting and Preventing the Illicit Import, Export and Transfer of Ownership of Cultural Property, which should provide for “the transfer to cultural assets to their countries of origin or for their restitution in case of illegal appropriation;” it’s a No-Go for Africa. But is this deeper than politics, diplomacy and history. Yes, it’s about power and money. The coiffeurs of conquest, filling the British institutions and Europe for that matter, are proof of their pride in a history of domination and colonization. And where money is concerned, the Arts Council England notes, “…every £1 ($1.31) the arts and the culture industry pays in salaries generates an additional £2.01 ($2.61) in the greater economy, “attracting visitors; creating jobs and developing skills; attracting and retaining businesses revitalizing places; and developing talent.” So there we go, their motivation, rationale and most of all, benefits to the Brits is clear.
Help is on the horizon and advocates, academicians and artists have been at the helm for some time actually. Prof. Richard Pankhurst, Prof. Endrias Eshete and Ras Teges King amongst others formed AFROMET, over a decade ago to retrieve the priceless treasures looted during the British war on Ethiopia in 1867-68. They were subsequently successful in getting the return of a looted Tabot from the Scottish Episcopal Church of St. John in Edinburgh and have inspired others such as UK based Ethiopian schoolboy, Gabriel Berhanu Kassayie. Gabriel launched a campaign with his classmates, delivering a petition to the PM at Downing Street, trying to convince the British Government to return the invaluable treasures.
Recently, right here in Addis Ababa, a group of youth in Kazanches enjoyed a presentation on Maqdala that was just extraordinary. The art pieces in the collection, alone, were exquisite. Beyond the priceless historical and spiritual significance, the treasures are valued in the millions of dollars says Maqdala power point presenter, Ras Tages. The presentation was comprehensive and Tages shared that the Ethiopian Ministry of Education has given the green light for it to be shared with students in an effort to inform a budding generation on their heritage. Who knows, they may be motivated to follow Gabriel’s example of activism. The youth in Kazanches all signed the petition for the return of what is theirs and promised to spread the word. They even expressed interest to meet at Tewodros Square with fellow students to escort the petition to the British Embassy, when that time comes.
Renowned Ethiopian-born UK based author, Lemn Sisay proclaimed, “There is plenty of evidence of British soldiers raiding and looting Africa.” And Ras Teges urges, “…artists, singers, musicians and students must support the Maqdala campaign by writing lyrics for songs that can raise public awareness. ” So calling all artists, activists, academicians and lovers of Ethiopian art and history, it is your turn to advocate and activate your own artistic crusade to help usher in a new age for the return of African art and artifacts.
Dr. Desta Meghoo is a Jamaican born Creative Consultant and cultural promoter based in Ethiopia since 2005. She is also the Liaison to the African Union for the Ghana based, Diaspora African Forum.
