Head Coach Berhane G/Egziabher who led Welwalo-Adigrat to Premier League promotion was sacked following the teams shocking results in recent weeks. Speculation is already flying the Berhane will soon to join Diredawa, which has not had a coach since Zelalem Shiferaw’s resignation two weeks ago.
Leading Welwalo-Adigrat to promotion the first season he joined, the veteran head coach, who is famous for his short pass strategy, was expected to live his dream. Of course he had had a good start, but his fortune took a nosedive as his team lost six straight games. Following Welwalo’s poor run club supporters pressured for a change, and the decision makers gave their final verdict on Monday seeing-off Berhane before the end of the first round.
Though fans believe the poor result triggered his sacking, Berhane claims the dismal run is because of serious interference from the management. According to Berhane in addition to meddling in the player transfer and team selection, Club Officials tried to humiliate him because of his personality. He claims he became tired of this and reached a point where he said, ‘enough is enough’.
“I was unhappy with the club’s meddling in my job and denying my freedom of bossing the team as I pleased. Even when it came to signing foreign players my role was very limited, it was considered beyond my territory. It was too much for me to stay in such conditions. I want to build a ball playing team and a sure a team that likes my style and this will come soon. Until then I will take a rest and see things around the way,” Berhane remarked. Welwalo currently sits 10th in the table with 13 points from 12 matches. They travel to Nazareth to face Adama today.
Welwalo sacks Berhane; likely to join Diredawa
IMF forecasts domestic debt to decline, external debt to rise
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Ethiopia’s domestic debt will decline while its external debt rises. The final version of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Article IV for the past fiscal year indicated that the country external debt grew at a higher percentage than the past few years, while domestic debt will decline in the current fiscal year.
The report, issued in the middle of the week, stated that the country’s external debt compared with its GDP will be 33.1 percent. This is an increase of two percent compared with the 2016/17 fiscal year.
The IMF has raised concerns about the nation’s external growth. However, its external debt growth has not risen significantly over the past three years and has not passed 30 percent.
The IMF’s statement indicates that Ethiopia’s external debt will be 33.1 percent, which is slightly more than the estimated 30.4 percent last fiscal year. Two years ago the country’s external debt was estimated at 30.7 percent and 30.3 percent in 2014/15.
The IMF Executive Directors who appreciated the government’s efforts to expand exports, and increase private sector involvement in the economy, underlined that external imbalances and inadequate reserve buffers remain a key risk, and urged the authorities to maintain determined policy actions to control external borrowing.
The estimation for this year, is the second largest move after 2014/15, according to the report. The IMF statement indicated that the country’s external debt compared with the GDP has increased to 30.3 percent from 25.8 percent the preceding year.
The IMF projection indicated that the country’s public debt which includes domestic debt will be 59 percent of the GDP for the 2017/18 fiscal year, which was estimated to be 56.9 percent in the past fiscal year.
The report projected that domestic debt will decrease compared with the past year. It would be the first incident after years of stagnation if the IMF projection comes true. The domestic debt has been growing steadily in previous years. A small growth rate of domestic debt is part of the target set by the government to keep inflation to single digits.
The IMF report stated that the domestic debt would 25.9 percent of the GDP, which is a decrease compared with the 2016/17 fiscal year.
The Directors commended the restrictive public sector borrowing policy to contain external debt and imports while protecting pro-poor spending, the devaluation of the currency to regain competitiveness, and the tight monetary policy to rein in inflation.
Gross domestic investment will also decrease for the third year in the row. The Article IV Consultation of IMF indicated that the domestic investment will stand at 36.4 percent which is a decrease of 0.2 percent compared with 2016/17. The gross domestic investment has decreased for the past two years and will continue during the current year from its heyday in 2014/15 when it was 39.4 percent.
Private investment will continue growing, while the public investment will slow down as has been the trend over the previous three years.
The country’s gross official reserve will show an improvement for the current year over the estimated 1.9 months of imports or USD 3.2 billion. The projection indicated that the gross official reserve will become two months or USD 3.67 billion, but this is lower than the standard of at least three months of imported goods.
It indicated that the Executive Directors welcomed plans to improve the management and oversight of public enterprises, including undertaking audits for some large state-owned enterprises (SOEs). “Public-private partnerships (PPPs), long-term concessions, and privatization of SOEs could offer opportunities to fund critical infrastructure,” the report added. Recently, the government secured a huge amount of hard currency from its sale of shares of the National Tobacco Enterprise to Japan Tobacco International at a cost of USD 434 million.
The directors also encouraged the authorities to continue to monitor the NPLs of the national development bank (Development Bank of Ethiopia, NPL reached over 25 percent) and to shift its current funding mechanism to a less distortive system.
The statement that IMF released on January 17 indicated that the directors urged implementation of the action plan to further strengthen the AML/CFT (anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism) framework.
IMF welcomed the birr devaluation by 15 percent against other major hard currencies. In the report the directors noted that a more flexible exchange rate would help preserve competitiveness and foster export diversification, and recommended eliminating exchange restrictions.
Explosives bound for Ethiopia mistakenly confiscated
Explosive equipment that was being transported to an Ethiopian dynamite supply company has been seized by the Greek Coast Guard under suspicion that the cargo was en route to Libya.
The issue has gotten traction in international media which reported that the vessel was transporting goods from port of Mersin in Turkey to Libya instead of Djibouti, according a statement from Greece.
The Tanzania-flagged cargo vessel Andromeda was seized by the Greek Coast Guard on January 7, 2018 as it was carrying materials used for making explosives from the Mersin and Iskenderun ports of Turkey to Libya. The ship’s papers indicated that the destination of the explosive goods was the Port of Djibouti, a major sea outlet for Ethiopia.
However the information Capital obtained indicated that the goods Andromeda carried were cargo for a local company called Zeta Construction Plc, one of the very few companies allowed to import and distribute dynamite in the country that are used for construction purposes.
A source told Capital that this was a routine order for the company and the explosives were for the local market, primarily construction companies. The company reportedly did not know if its products were seized.
Zelalem Hagos, General Manager of Zeta, told Capital he does not have any knowledge about the issue. He declined to comment further.
Reliable sources said that until recently only three companies were allowed to import the sensitive product into the country.
Early this week the Turkish Embassy in Libya confirmed that the product was actually being transported to Ethiopia as opposed to the Libyan port of Misrata.
“According to initial findings, we were informed that the ship would go to Djibouti Port [the country Ethiopia’s sea-transported imports come into] after departing from the [Turkish Mediterranean] Port of Mersin on Nov. 23, 2017, and it was also declared that the vessel carried 419,360 kilograms [924,530 pounds] of ‘dangerous’ materials in 29 full containers,” the embassy statement added.
The Greek security body suspected the cargo that would be an input for explosives would be transported to Libya which has been under an arms embargo since 2011 in relation to instability in the country.
Different reports from Greece indicated that a Greek man owns Andromeda and told media that the ship was on the way to the Red Sea in Djibouti, but the vessel was unable to enter the Suez Canal as it could not pay the toll but he gave no reason why it was unable to pay.
LEADING OR FOLLOWING?
Revolutions, mass uprisings, insurrections, etc., particularly of the considered types, almost always ensue as a result of failure on the part of the reigning political leadership. The generalized turmoil that intensified in Ethiopia during the last two years is one such example. The Ethiopian political leadership, (i.e., the one still in play) was completely self-absorbed to see disruptive tendencies taking shape on the ground. Gross maladministration became the order of the day; from the delivery of injustices to the delivery of services. The leadership’s leading political analyses were biased, even blinded, by the superficial and feeble achievements registered in certain sectors of our society. TPTB’s (the power that be) very simplistic and mistaken conception of Ethiopian history/reality resulted in misdiagnosing the country’s age old protracted problems!
Imbecilic self-congratulatory disposition dominated and overwhelmed the ruling entity and their minions. Dominant interests operating at the global level (oligarchs, transnational monopoly capital, etc.,) who are always ready to pounce on the vulnerable, energetically supported the visible degeneration of the ruling party. These entities probably assumed the mal-governance taking place across the country would be helpful to their long-term agenda. The party’s official culture, as flaunted by its degenerate goons, was unbecoming of any revolutionary movement! The unsuspecting sheeple (human mass) was pressed, directly/indirectly, to accept corruption as the way of life. Numerous party operatives were directly/indirectly involved in the scheme to disfranchise those who were not willing to go along with their foolhardy ways. Parasitic elements were hand-picked to facilitate massive embezzlements. ‘Rent seekers’, despite the rhetoric, were celebrated, rather than penalized for their deeds! Obviously, the sheeple realized the whole scheme of publicly condemning rent seekers while secretly condoning their activities was a farce orchestrated by the ‘Mafiosi State’ behind the formal state!
Constructive criticisms intended to rectify the visible degeneration of the ruling elites, not only the politicos, were construed as useless proposition, especially if suggested by outsiders. The ongoing ‘economic development’ that is uncritically celebrated by the country’s largely uninformed population was used to justify generalized decadence. Ethiopia’s ‘Royalties of Corruption’ were visibly facilitated to take over lucrative enterprises, in one form or another, despite plenty of evidence showing massive foul play. In short, the state and the government was captured by the well-organized ‘Mafiosi State’, clandestinely operating behind the scene! Yet again, despite outcries from the general public, the ruling entity chose not only to ignore the sheeple’s grievances but also doubled down on its support to corrupt cronies, determined to derail whatever little good governance that remained in the country. Whether we like it or not, injustice is already recognized, by many, as one of the defining characteristic of the administration of this once revolutionary party! As a result of such gross maladministration and more, the country finds itself in a very precarious situation. Political stability, economic progress, social harmony, etc. are now all in jeopardy!
Even though cronyism is a blinding disease, EPRDF somehow decided not to see it that way. The leadership intentionally preferred very distorted lens to look at the reality of Ethiopia. To those who wanted to remain independent, both in thought and actions, the country became a place of servitude, under feudal-like regime full of mediocrity, buffoonery and widespread corruption. Forget about privileges, even basic rights were denied to those considered second-class citizens, which were almost everybody not connected to the goons of the ‘Mafiosi State’. Two years ago all hell broke loose and the sheeple decided to take matters in its own hands. Disruption started to take place all over, without warning and seemingly without organized leadership. These moves, on their own, illuminate the depth of dissatisfaction harbored by the people against the degenerate governing elites and their minions. Henceforth, the sheeple emphatically started to set the agenda for the country; ranging from peaceful disobedience to outright rebellion. It became very clear the ruling party was asleep on the wheels, so to speak. As it stands, the ruling party is trying to play catch up with the agenda put forward by the Ethiopian sheeple. Now who are the leaders and who are the followers?
Vacuous elitism only leads to detachment and corruption. Principles deprived relation (‘mereh alba genunignet’-in the lingua of the ruling party) overwhelmed the country’s administration, and de facto became the modus operandi of the state under EPRDF. It seems the party itself has finally admitted the existence of what we have been calling the ‘Mafiosi state.’ The rhetoric might be in the right direction but unless tangible changes are observed on the ground, there will hardly be any respite! If the ruling entity is not willing or capable of rectifying the problems already highlighted by the Ethiopian sheeple, the next move (by the sheeple) will be very clear. People will naturally demand the removal of the status quo by hook or a crook! The ruling elites must genuinely grasp the prevailing sentiment of the large majority of the Ethiopian people. There is no denying that EPRDF’s credibility and image is seriously damaged, thanks to its degenerate Mafiosi that has derailed the direction of the once revolutionary front. Instead of appreciating hard and honest work, justice, prudence, decency, etc. the party became facilitator of embezzlement and injustice. EPRDF has a long way to go before it regains some of its legitimacy back. If genuine political space is going to open up, the challenges to the ruling party is bound to be formidable, as it has betrayed the trust and confidence of the large majority of its constituency!
It is advisable to revisit some of the teachings of the old and wise. ‘There is no greater tyranny than that which is perpetrated under the shield of the law and in the name of justice.’ Charles-Louis Montesquieu (1689-1755), The Spirit of the Laws. Good day!
