Expanding farmland into forested areas does not produce measurable long-term improvements in household food security in rural Ethiopia, according to a new study that warns against treating forest conversion as a solution to poverty and hunger.

The research, titled ‘Do Farmland Expansion Motives Improve Household Food Security? Evidence from Rural Ethiopia’, was presented at the Africa Evidence Summit. Led by researcher Robel Seifemicahel, it examined 598 farming households in three areas along active deforestation frontiers: Asgede-Tsimbla in Tigray, Adiyo in South Ethiopia Region and Adaba in Oromia.

The study found that farmers often clear land because they lack other sources of income or seek to benefit from high prices for particular crops. However, its econometric analysis found no measurable long-term food-security gains from farmland expansion.

Instead, the findings suggest that forest clearing is often a coping strategy adopted under severe economic pressure, rather than a reliable route to higher incomes, improved nutrition or long-term household resilience.

Agricultural expansion has long been recognised as one of the principal drivers of deforestation in Ethiopia. Research on land-use change has documented the conversion of forest, shrubland and grassland into cropland across several regions, with consequences for biodiversity, soil quality, water systems and local climate regulation.

The study measured food security through daily calorie consumption per adult equivalent. The average across the sampled households was about 2,700 kilocalories per day, but results varied significantly by location.

Households in Adaba, recorded the highest average daily consumption, at more than 3,211 kilocalories per adult equivalent. In Asgede-Tsimbla, Tigray, average consumption stood at about 2,584 kilocalories, producing a gap of up to 24 percent between the most food-secure and most vulnerable study areas.

Researchers said the findings challenge a widely held assumption that opening new land for cultivation automatically improves household welfare.

The study found that households that had not expanded their farmland would have faced substantial reductions in calorie consumption had they undertaken land clearing. This indicates that expansion may not be a path to prosperity, but an ineffective response to constraints such as inadequate income, limited market access and livelihood insecurity.

The study also identified land-tenure expectations and weak institutional support as important drivers of forest conversion.

Households that believed land certification would secure claims over newly cleared land were more likely to expand into forest areas. By contrast, households expecting future land redistribution showed lower incentives to clear additional land.

Distance from agricultural-extension services and limited access to timely climate information were also associated with a higher likelihood of farmland expansion. Researchers said households isolated from advisory services may have fewer opportunities to adopt productivity-enhancing practices, diversify income or respond to climate risks without clearing more land.

Earlier studies have similarly found that population growth, lack of diversified livelihoods, weak land-tenure systems and inadequate enforcement contribute to land-use change and forest loss in Ethiopia. The researchers called for policies that reduce the economic pressure driving households to clear forests. These include expanded off-farm employment, support for small businesses, more diverse rural income opportunities and improved access to agricultural extension services.

The study also urged authorities to communicate land-certification rules more clearly and consistently, warning that uncertainty can create a perception that illegal forest conversion may eventually be regularised or rewarded.

Evidence from other rural Ethiopian studies suggests that livelihood diversification, soil and water conservation, higher incomes and stronger agricultural-extension services are associated with better food-security outcomes.

The findings underscore the need for a shift in policy focus from horizontal agricultural expansion to productivity growth, sustainable land management and diversified rural livelihoods.