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Rising threats from digital scams

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In an exclusive interview with Capital’s Groum Abate, Jonathan Somers, the Middle East and Africa Sales Director for NetGuardians, discussed the alarming rise of digital scams in Ethiopia’s banking sector. As the country undergoes significant transformations in digital banking and financial products, Somers emphasized that these changes have also led to an increase in sophisticated scams that exploit vulnerable customers.

Somers explained that many of the scams currently affecting Ethiopian banks involve social engineering tactics, particularly phishing. He elaborated on how fraudsters use text messages and phone calls to impersonate bank support staff, tricking victims into providing sensitive information or transferring money unknowingly. The interview highlights the urgent need for enhanced security measures as the banking landscape evolves.

With the rapid growth of e-commerce in Ethiopia, Somers noted that scammers are also taking advantage of online shopping platforms to defraud customers by offering non-existent products. He pointed out that while romance scams are not prevalent in Ethiopia, there have been cases where bank employees have been involved in fraudulent activities related to personal relationships.

The discussion further digs into the role of artificial intelligence and machine learning in improving fraud detection and prevention within banks. Somers advocated for the adoption of advanced technologies to identify unusual transaction patterns and reduce false alerts, ultimately enhancing customer security.

This insightful conversation underscores the pressing challenges facing Ethiopia’s banking sector as it navigates the complexities of digital transformation while combating an increasing wave of cybercrime. Excerpts;

Capital: How do you see the trend of scams in Ethiopia?

Jonathan Somers: Ethiopia banking sector is currently undergoing a lot of transformation especially on digital banking and products.

With these accelerated transformations there is a rise in digital scams, most of the scam’s trends we are seeing entails use of social engineering.

      Capital: Could you elaborate on how phishing scams work and their impact on banking security?

Jonathan Somers: Phishing mostly used in Ethiopia entails use of text messages and phone calls and bank short codes mostly known as USSD. Case scenario of how phishing is used to perpetrate scams is where fraudster pose as bank customer care/support staff thereafter giving the victim some Bank Short codes/USSD codes to dial which leads to customer sending money to fraudster unknowingly.

The riskiest Phishing is where the victim is tricked into divulging some personally identifiable information that leads to their Sim card being swapped and the fraudsters take-overs their mobile phone + Mobile banking access which leads to customers bank accounts being drained without being aware.

Additionally, with the rise of ecommerce market customer are using phishing to offer bank customers online “purchase deals” only for the goods not to be delivered after the customer has made payments through mobile /digital banking.

       Capital: How do romance scams typically operate, and what makes them particularly effective?

Jonathan Somers: Romance scams is not really something common and is rarely used to perpetrate fraud. We however have seen isolated cases of Bank employees or staff are dropped into romance related fraud i.e., bank staff taking loans or bank money only for their lovers not pay back on due time leading to loan default.

We have cases of however of someone close such as spouse, friends and family knowing some banking credentials taking a victim and transferring money to themselves without the victim knowing since all notification messages are deleted.

       Capital: What role does social engineering play in business email compromise (BEC) fraud?

Jonathan Somers: Business Email Compromise entails is basically a form social engineering where the fraudster pretends to be someone within the organization or very well known to the organization

       Capital: How can AI and machine learning improve fraud detection and prevention in banking?

Jonathan Somers: Use of AI and Machine Learning improves fraud detection by reduce false alarms false positives, this is because it understands customer behavior and past historical transactions. Most of phishing scams entails money moving to unknown beneficiaries both the customer and to the bank. With the use of AI and Machine Learning such transactions can easily be identified as they are outliers.

With AI and Machine learning can identify account taker especially when coupled with fraud activities.

Capital: What are some of the limitations of traditional fraud detection methods?

Jonathan Somers: Traditional fraud detection relied solely on pattern-based detection methods normally called rules this leads to a lot of false alerts being generated hence not efficient for the monitoring teams. Additionally genuine/legitimate transaction being stopped leading to customer complains.

Also to catch new fraud pattern requires new rules not part of the initial rules need to be configured hence not efficient.

With AI however this is not case the since the fraud detection is based on what we know best about the customer their past historical transaction so any behavior out of the norm which includes fraudulent transactions are easily identified/flagged.

       Capital: How do you think economic conditions will influence fraud rates in 2024 and beyond?

Jonathan Somers: Changes in Economic conditions has always had a direct relation with fraud trends with better economic conditions the fraud trends to decrease however with worsening of economic conditions the fraud trends tend rise. In some of the countries worsening economic conditions has seen rise in in both digital frauds and even elements of organized bank fraud heist where Bank Employees are roped in to perpetrate such fraudulent grand schemes which entail compromising of bank systems.

        Capital: Can you share an experience where you successfully identified or mitigated a fraud risk?

Jonathan Somers: Some of the frauds recently caught and stopped in the recent past includes the following:

  • Scams social engineering such as fraudster posing as Bank employees somebody given USSD codes that send money to someone.
  • Digital Fraud with internal fraud elements where Bank employee changes customer KYC details for the account registered for Mobile Money then funds Withdrawn with newly registered fraudulent phone number.
  • we have had cases also of employees on some of the branches targeting special status accounts such as dormant / elderly accounts / customers who are out of country. This is majorly because the owners rarely use the accounts and no notifications for transactions undertaken.
  • For innovative new products likes digital wallets fraudsters have been identifying gaps products features like commission structures / levies / charges to profit on them at the expense of the bank.
  • Banks non standardized data capture where the provided email on customer account is staff email / phone this normally is later abused for fraud by the concerned staff.

       Capital: What advice would you give to financial institutions in Ethiopia to better prepare for the evolving fraud landscape?

Jonathan Somers: We would advise banks in Ethiopia to implement a comprehensive fraud solution that protects them and their customers from current and future frauds, using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning ensure the protection is real-time and does not impact the customer experience. Banks need to ensure clear accountability for fraud prevention within their management team, to ensure adequate attention is placed on implementing the necessary measures to detect and prevent frauds.

Capital: The report indicates that fraud costs corporations up to 5% of their revenue annually. How can companies better manage this financial risk?

Jonathan Somers: The ROI on high-quality fraud management systems such as NetGuardians is usually over 200%, so banks should invest in the latest technology to ensure their losses are minimized

Ethiopia moves to protect water bodies with new legislation

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Ethiopia is taking significant steps to safeguard its water bodies by proposing a new bill aimed at regulating construction and activities along their shores. The initiative comes in response to the lack of an independent legal framework for the protection and management of the country’s water resources, which are currently at risk of severe damage.

The draft bill, titled the Water Body Distance Determination, Development, and Care Bill, has been submitted to the House of People’s Representatives for approval. It seeks to establish clear guidelines that prohibit construction on the shores of water bodies, except for tourism-related facilities. The bill also criminalizes the dumping, release, or disposal of hazardous or toxic chemicals near water sources.

The legislation aims to address the negative impacts of sedimentation, chemical runoff, and other pollutants that threaten water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. It emphasizes the need for sustainable practices to preserve these vital resources.

Under the proposed regulations, no construction activities will be permitted along the shores of protected water bodies, with exceptions made only for specific tourism-related developments. Additionally, vehicles will not be allowed to operate in these areas unless designated entry points are established.

The bill also addresses existing developments near water bodies that may be causing pollution or damage. It stipulates that any such activities must be monitored and regulated by appropriate authorities to ensure compliance with environmental standards.

The Minister of Water and Energy will be tasked with overseeing the implementation of sustainable development practices along Ethiopia’s coastlines. This includes developing guidelines for demarcating protected areas around water bodies and ensuring adherence to the new regulations.

Ethiopia’s water resources have been increasingly threatened by pollution and habitat degradation. The proposed legislation aims to mitigate these issues by establishing a framework for responsible management and protection of water bodies.

NBE reports decline in state firms’ credit as it tackles NPL’s

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The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), which oversees the financial sector, reports a significant decline in the proportion of state firms with outstanding credit during the financial year 2023/24. To tackle the issue of nonperforming loans (NPLs), the NBE claims to be collaborating with certain banks.

In its recently published 2024 Financial Stability Report, the NBE revealed that the percentage of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with outstanding loans and advances from the banking sector decreased during the specified financial year.

As SOEs and regional governments are the largest debtors in the nation, the government has recently decided to prevent them from acquiring new loans, as this has proven challenging for the state-owned financial giant, Commercial Bank of Ethiopia.

The latest report, the second of its kind, notes that the banking industry’s loans and advances remain concentrated due to the historical trend of extending large loans to significant state enterprises and regional governments.

“The top 10 borrowers in the banking sector accounted for 14.7 percent of total loans and advances at the end of June 2024, a notable decrease from 23.5 percent a year earlier when considering large state-owned enterprises,” the report stated.

However, the concentration ratios are significantly lower when SOEs are excluded. The top 10 private borrowers accounted for only 3.5 percent of bank loans and advances.

Despite constituting just 0.5 percent of the total, large borrowers with credit exposure exceeding 10 million birr held over three-quarters (74.8 percent) of all loans from the banking industry, marking an increase from the previous year.

During the reporting period ending June 30, 2024, the overall amount of outstanding loans and advances rose by 14.5 percent to 1.5 trillion birr.

The report indicates that most banks, as well as the banking system overall, are considered adequate, as their NPL percentage remains below the NBE’s threshold of 5%.

However, the report also highlights systemic risks and the subpar performance of certain banks. “Nevertheless, in some banks, NPLs exceeded this minimum. As a result, the NBE is collaborating with them to address the underlying challenges,” it noted.

The ratio of NPLs to gross loans slightly increased to 3.9 percent for the year ending June 30, 2024, up from 3.6 percent in the same period in 2023, but still well below the regulatory maximum of 5 percent.

At the end of June 2024, the total assets of the financial sector reached over 3.4 trillion birr, reflecting a 15.1 percent increase from the previous year. These assets represented 29.5 percent of nominal GDP, down from 37.6 percent at the end of June 2023.

Total bank deposits grew by 15.4 percent, primarily driven by an increase in demand for time deposits, compared to a growth rate of 24.6 percent in the year leading up to June 2023.

The report indicated that loans and bonds expanded by 16.1 percent as of June 2024, a decline from the annual growth rate of 24.3 percent recorded up to June 2023.

It also noted that GDP increased at a faster pace than both deposits and loans during the reporting period.

“As a result, the share of deposits in GDP decreased to 21.6 percent from 24.8 percent at the end of June 2023, while the share of loans and bonds fell from 21.7 percent to 19 percent,” the report elaborated.

The share of loans in GDP remains low in an international context, and there is an objective to significantly increase it in the medium term to reduce credit concentration risk.

Total assets of commercial banks reached 3.3 trillion birr at the end of June 2024, reflecting a growth of 15.2 percent from the previous year, although this increase is lower than the 19.9 percent recorded in June 2023.

The main contributors to the growth of total assets were loans, advances, and bonds, which collectively represented the largest share, accounting for 66.9 percent of total assets.

According to the NBE paper, the ratio of loans to deposits remained stable throughout the reporting period, declining by just 0.4 percentage points to 60.2 percent, while the ratio of loans and bonds to deposits increased slightly from 87.4 percent to 87.9 percent compared to the previous year.

However, these percentages remain alarmingly high, indicating that nearly all deposits are tied up with borrowers, leaving minimal room for significant and unexpected withdrawals.

In adverse conditions, the high ratios could lead to a liquidity crisis, as they result in relatively low levels of liquid assets, the report cautioned.

It highlighted that the increase in lending, particularly to the construction, import, and household sectors, may have contributed to the decline in the liquidity ratio.

“While the increased lending aligns with the general policy to promote lending to key sectors of the economy, the NBE continues to advise against exceeding a loan-to-deposit ratio of 85 percent to ensure the sector remains resilient to adverse liquidity shocks,” it added.

By the end of June 2024, only 0.4 percent of the banking sector’s depositors held 58.5 percent of total deposits.

State-owned enterprises are among the largest depositors, contributing to credit concentration.

A limited portion of banks’ liquid assets consisted of high-quality liquid assets, such as cash. As a result, some institutions were facing real-time liquidity constraints.

By the end of June 2024, the financial sector was more sensitive than it had been the previous year. If the same shock had affected 18 banks, they would have been unable to meet the minimum liquidity requirements for June 2023; currently, 20 institutions face this issue.

The total income of the banking sector reached 361.4 billion birr for the year ending in June 2024, up from 297.5 billion birr the previous year.

Despite net income before tax rising by 18.4 percent to 57.9 billion birr at the end of June 2024, compared to 48.9 billion birr a year earlier, the overall profitability of the banking industry decreased slightly, although it is still considered adequate.

Ethiopia launches nationwide polio vaccination campaign for children under five

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Ethiopia has officially launched the second phase of its nationwide polio vaccination campaign, aiming to immunize nearly 6 million children under the age of five. The campaign was inaugurated in Gambella, where senior federal and regional officials gathered to promote the initiative under the theme “The Journey to Zero Polio in Ethiopia.”

The second phase of the polio vaccination effort will target approximately 160,000 children across all districts in Gambella, including those in the city administration and refugee camps. Mikias Alayu, a representative from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute, emphasized the importance of conducting multiple rounds of vaccination campaigns to prevent and control polio outbreaks resulting from vaccine shortages.

In the first round of vaccinations, over 160,000 children in the region received polio immunizations. During this campaign, health officials also conducted surveys for polio-like diseases and other illnesses while reinforcing routine vaccinations and raising community awareness about health issues.

Odjulu Oduru, a representative for the Regional President and Head of the Water and Energy Bureau, highlighted the importance of international and local cooperation in eradicating polio. He stressed that active participation from management and stakeholders is crucial for effective implementation.

Prof. Sileshi Garuma, an advisor to the state minister of health, noted that creating a polio-free Ethiopia relies on community involvement in prevention efforts, routine vaccinations, and integrated home-to-home testing.

Dr. Owen L. Kaluwa, WHO Representative in Ethiopia, addressed attendees at the launch event, acknowledging the collaborative efforts of various partners including USAID, UNICEF, Rotary International, and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). He emphasized Ethiopia’s commitment to eradicating all forms of polio as part of a broader global initiative.

This year marks a significant milestone as Ethiopia joins other countries in commemorating World Polio Day with renewed efforts to combat the disease. The campaign will utilize the novel Oral Polio Vaccine type two (nOPV2) across five regions, including Afar, Amhara, Gambella, Addis Ababa, and Oromia.

Ethiopia has made significant strides in polio eradication since interrupting indigenous wild poliovirus transmission in December 2001. The last reported case of imported wild poliovirus occurred in January 2014, and Ethiopia was certified polio-free by the World Health Organization in 2017.

The ongoing vaccination campaign is part of Ethiopia’s commitment to maintaining its polio-free status and ensuring that all children receive essential vaccinations to protect against preventable diseases.