Shop owners in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, are caught between a rock and a hard place over a government directive that they install CCTV cameras outside their businesses to intensify surveillance of Islamist insurgents who have a strong presence in the city. The businessmen say if they put up the cameras they risk being gunned down by the al-Shabab insurgents, and if they do not, they could be arrested by the police…The government issued a directive last year to shopkeepers to install CCTV cameras – at their own cost – to deter attacks by al-Shabab…The government has now ordered residents to install the cameras outside homes and apartment blocks, raising fears among many people that al-Shabab could bring its war into their homes. Since October, al-Shabab has killed four businessmen in 10 attacks related to the installation of CCTV cameras, according to a leading violence monitoring group, Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (Acled). (BBC)
Inferior Good
An inferior good is an economic term that describes a good whose demand drops when people’s incomes rise. These goods fall out of favor as incomes and the economy improve as consumers begin buying more costly substitutes instead.
An Economic Freedom Party for Ethiopia
Just about everyone except PP cadres and their greedy commercial agents is being impoverished at an alarming rate. Towns are shining bright, with the latest Toyota V-8, Nissan V-8, and Infiniti vehicles competing for parking space in front of super luxurious apartment complexes occupied by the cadres and their associates. In this respect, there is indeed significant growth, and it is pointless to deny the obvious. However, one does not need to be a Nobel Laureate to understand that inflation is partly driven by unchecked government spending on mega-projects and corruption.
To grasp how speculation in urban land and mega construction contracts has created Ethiopia’s multimillionaires—who enjoy substantial kickbacks—you certainly need to read an EPRDF or PP insider like Ato Bereket. It’s no wonder city officials are focused on raising lucrative “symbolic” city gate arches and domes at staggering costs—running into the hundreds of millions—in regions where civil servants have been going AWOL after salary payments were frozen. It’s no surprise that much of society is enraged. The leadership, isolated and indulging in excess, seems no longer capable of confronting the truth. It makes one wonder: how do they sleep at night?
What’s worse, in blatant disregard for public opinion, the incumbent continues to provoke the public. When citizens timidly protest that cronyism is rampant in most public enterprises, the government takes offense and rotates family members into ministerial positions. They prepare the usual brief in defense of the indefensible—“even America, the ultimate beacon of democracy, does it.” They reference President Kennedy appointing his younger brother as Federal Attorney General, conveniently neglecting to mention how JFK tarnished his legacy by making that choice at the behest of his manipulative father. Besides, the end of Camelot is hardly an enviable outcome.
We may have been systematically disenfranchised and relegated to second-class citizens, but we don’t want the entire justice administration system to collapse. Despite not feeling represented in the House, we dislike seeing it disrespected, as when a corrupt agency’s director dismissed it with contempt.
If you want to learn from American examples, consider what happened to Trump’s former Chief Strategist and Counsel, Steve Bannon, who publicly ignored a Congressional subpoena and failed to appear before a House Select Committee. He was sent to prison. In our case, the worst the Committee could do is plead with the culprit not to repeat such misconduct. Why? Because they are friends and have a long history in service to the TPLF; one cannot press too hard without risking counter-accusations.
Unlike the politicians, we are here to stay; we don’t have a foreign country to escape to. I would be surprised if they don’t have a backup plan for when they are forced to flee. The Premier seemed to recognize this at one point, attempting to suspend foreign travel, only to withdraw the executive decree. I would very much like to know why. It seems he isn’t calling all the shots.
The symptoms are all too familiar, aren’t they? Before it collapsed into dishonor and became a living symbol of a gutted Party, TPLF was already rotting from within. Any resident of Addis can attest to this; the stench was unbearable.In the company of EPRDFites, the public resembled Hugo Chavez at the UN General Assembly, lamenting the intolerable sulfur smell in the hall. Transitioning from a selfless Front of freedom fighters, dedicated almost religiously, to becoming the butt of jokes is truly pathetic. If you’re not aware, talented comedians in Mekelle are now making fun of the old guard TPLFites, performing unflattering impressions that are hilarious and have absolutely riveting punchlines.
A few years ago, the children of old guard party members were so unruly that they could shut down sections of the city and issue orders to anyone they disliked. Ill-gotten wealth consumes one alive. Those born with silver spoons in their mouths were beyond the reach of law enforcement, but their self-inflicted wounds ran deep. They were involved in all sorts of illicit activities, some of which were a disgrace to humanity. In all honesty, they heralded the downfall of TPLF’s empire. Unless PP takes heed, it is destined for the same dustbin of history.
I know populist political groups and activists have become anathema, leaving the public with little stamina to indulge in their hate-driven rhetoric.I understand that those fixated on shallow and narrow ethnic persuasions have run their course and have become unapologetically vocal. However, there is one populist agenda we haven’t yet attempted to advance: an Economic Freedom Organization inspired by Julius Malema’s South Africa.
Trust me, the realities on the ground warrant this. There is no room for sophistication, slickness, or slackers; we need to confront the deserving with raw, upfront accountability.
The Premier himself has admitted this. The challenges of corruption, nepotism, favoritism, and cronyism that PP faces stem largely from the ethnic foundation of the Party’s organizational structure. Ethnic politics is a thick den of thieves, protecting its members like a mafia boss. Consider the 15 million PPs; half of them were drafted into the ranks for ‘protection.’ The Chief himself has acknowledged this, yet he surrounds himself with weak-willed yes-men.
PP has failed to break free from the long-established network; it merely revised the personnel, replaced the actors, but maintained the same system. Toward the end of his tenure and life, Ato Meles grew increasingly disillusioned with EPRDFites and sought to reach out to honest, non-EPRDF Ethiopians. Bereket notes that Meles candidly remarked that they had assumed they were sweet nectar, but ultimately attracted horrible, nasty gutter flies.
That is why, despite its downsides, we need a bold and brash Economic Freedom Party to dismantle the network and hold both the foot soldiers and the higher echelons of the Dominant Party hierarchy accountable.
God Bless
The writer can be reached via estefanoussamuel@yahoo.com
Realistic business planning
A business plan summarizes a project in a way that makes it understandable and attractive to potential financiers, business partners or employees. Keep in mind that the first review of a business plan is an elimination process, rather than a selection process. The challenge is to stimulate readers’ curiosity and allow them to read the plan easily. The plan should clearly identify the problem the business is going to address, not only the solution. A good understanding of a particular problem or need will lead to success. First confirm the need, then build the product. Show you understand the problem and your solution will be more convincing. Next, be focussed. Define the target market and provide a relevant description, with figures that show the size of the market. For readers to reach your conclusions, rather than their own, you need to guide them. It is not enough to describe facts as different readers may draw different conclusions. Show evidence of market acceptance, in particular with a new product or concept. Consumer behaviour is hard to predict. A common pitfall is to assume that customers will behave in the way you expect. Reality is different and common sense is the least accurate way to predict consumer behaviour.
Now describe the implementation approach. A good idea is unlikely to be unique. If it is good, expect a few other people to be thinking about it. If it’s really good, you may find others working on it already. The difference is in implementation. This is the real challenge. Even if the idea is not unique, you can make a difference in the way you carry it out. And that is what investors are looking for.
Be coherent with figures. There will never be accurate figures until the business is underway and even then, some pieces may be missing. It is always possible however to use comparisons, benchmarks and reference points. Use them to estimate market size, market share and profit margins. Readers of your business plan will in the first instance not be able to double check the figures. They would rather look at the coherence of figures and check that they are consistent with the strategy.
Sometimes financiers provide a format for the business plan. If not, use an easy to read format. Remember that complicated documents are irritating and flat text with long paragraphs is boring. Think about the way people read a newspaper: they check the headlines first and focus on interesting stories. Readers of business plans are no different. Don’t use small type and don’t exceed 30 pages. If readers want more, they will ask. Remember that large files are also difficult to send by email, particularly in our situation in Ethiopia.
Use simple style, common vocabulary and avoid abbreviations. Describe the business in a way that makes it easy to understand. Describe the need to be addressed and the market opportunity. Then explain how this need will be met.
Draw the organization chart as it should be at maturity, not to fit the current team. Highlight the team’s capabilities and don’t hesitate to identify gaps, showing awareness of future trends.
It is a mistake not to include a thorough analysis of potential competition. If there is no competition, that is not necessary a positive point. In fact, it may be very negative because there could be no market for the idea. Once competition has been covered, show the differentiating points. Avoid statements saying that your business will be “better” or “cheaper” or “faster”.
Marketing and sales are strategic components of any business. Focus on how this will be done and remember that the marketing approach may provide competitive advantage.
The most important determinant for success is the ability to execute. Implementation is the real differentiator. This includes all aspects, from the choice of technology to customer service.
Always include a section analyzing the risks that may affect the business. An accurate assessment of risks will help convince investors that you are fully aware of the threats the business may face. It will also show that you are prepared and capable of responding to the challenge. This reminds us of the current electricity and telecommunications problems we are facing currently. I have spoken to several business owners running different kinds of businesses and they are all seriously affected by the current state of affairs. Production time is reduced, production costs are rising, essential information and opportunities are missed, and a lot of business and money is lost. I wonder how many of us were prepared for infrastructural risks of this magnitude. Those who were and had earlier invested in alternative sources of energy are now at an advantage. Not much can be done though about the telecommunications interruptions as this sector is in the hands of the states monopoly, making all businesses dependent on one service provider and not allowing for alternatives. Businesses that depend on internet connections like travel agents for example are seriously crippled as a result.
Going back to our business plan, don’t forget to state clearly what is expected from the target readers. The conclusion should include your funding request.
In conclusion:
- Use the business plan as a communication tool.
- Be simple, realistic and use common sense.
- Don’t look for funding but for raising interest.
- Be ready to support any statement with detailed information.
Ton Haverkort
