Africa is set to play a central role in the next phase of global economic fragmentation, with new risks in trade, borrowing and regulation also opening the door to long-term growth if governments move quickly, according to a World Economic Forum report.

The report says emerging and developing economies are facing rising pressure from trade shocks, higher borrowing costs and diverging global rules, but argues that Africa’s demographics, natural resources and regional integration efforts give the continent a strong chance to benefit from the realignment of global supply chains.

African economies are especially exposed because many are small, open and heavily dependent on foreign capital, commodity exports and external trade. The report notes that recent global policy changes have already weakened development assistance, reduced investment flows, raised debt-service burdens and increased tariff pressure on the continent.

It also says African countries continue to pay more to borrow than similarly placed economies elsewhere, while weak market depth and limited data make sovereign risk appear higher than it may be in reality. That combination, the report warns, makes the continent more vulnerable to external shocks.

At the same time, the report highlights Africa’s structural advantages, including rapid population growth, urbanization, strategic minerals, renewable-energy potential and manufacturing prospects. It says the African Continental Free Trade Area could lift GDP by a cumulative $1.4 trillion between 2021 and 2045 if fully implemented.

The report also points to the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System as a key step toward reducing dependence on foreign currencies for regional trade. It says deeper regional integration, stronger capital markets and better data could help African economies capture more value from shifting global supply chains.

To turn that potential into results, the report recommends faster implementation of AfCFTA protocols, broader use of PAPSS, improved credit-rating data and greater African participation in global ratings agencies. It also calls for more investable projects, stronger infrastructure pipelines and deeper domestic capital markets to mobilize local savings.

For African policymakers, the message is clear: fragmentation carries real costs, but coordinated regional action can help the continent build resilience and position itself for growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has announced that it is rephasing the disbursement schedule for its ongoing support under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Originally set at 7.5 percent, the support will now increase to nearly 14 percent of the approved $3.4 billion, effective July 2024.

In its fifth review report, published midweek, the IMF disclosed that it has submitted $468 million for final approval by its Executive Board. These funds represent continued support for the macroeconomic reform program that Ethiopia initiated in the previous budget year.

During her latest press briefing, Julie Kozack, Director of the IMF’s Communications Department, explained that the rephasing of disbursements will bring forward $200 million under the program to help Ethiopia address the immediate economic impact of the war in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. It is worth recalling that the IMF previously noted that the regional conflict has affected Ethiopia in key areas, including strategic commodity imports such as fuel, as well as significant volumes of exports and remittances.

In the fifth review, published on Wednesday, June 3, the IMF commended the economic reform program that the Ethiopian government has been implementing since last budget year. The IMF said the authorities continue to make progress in advancing their Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda, achieving favorable macroeconomic outcomes up until the onset of the Middle East conflict.

“Output indicators, exports, reserves, and government revenue all continued to improve through early 2026, alongside a decline in inflation. The war in the Middle East was a significant external shock that disrupted trade, causing temporary fuel shortages and sharp increases in the prices of imported fuel and fertilizer. Even so, economic activity appears robust, with only modest impacts so far on output growth and consumer price inflation,” said Álvaro Piris, who led the IMF team that stayed in Ethiopia from May 6 to 20.

However, the Fund appears to have adjusted its previous stance on lifting the credit cap. Piris noted that maintaining strong policy implementation will be essential to consolidate macroeconomic stability.

“A tight monetary policy stance remains warranted to anchor inflation expectations. Further efforts to enhance the functioning and transparency of the foreign exchange market will be important to support external adjustment,” he added.

The Ta’sis (Sudan Founding Alliance) alliance announced ahead of its meeting with the five-party mechanism that it firmly rejects any political or negotiation arrangements outside established international frameworks, declaring that any peace process bypassing its involvement will be nothing more than a futile “public relations project.”

Prior to the start of the anticipated consultation forum with the five-party mechanism on the Sudanese crisis, the alliance reflected its firm stance during a press conference it held in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.

The alliance’s official spokesperson, Ahmed Tagad Lissan, forcefully denied rumors circulating about any direct or indirect contact or meetings with the Sudanese army or what he described as the “de facto authority” in Port Sudan, calling the allegations entirely unfounded and reaffirming the group’s strict commitment to international peace initiatives.

Central to the alliance’s demands is an absolute veto on the participation of the Islamic Movement, the National Congress Party, or any of their political fronts in future settlements. Linking its political engagement directly to the framework established by the Quartet on Sudan, the Ta’sis alliance is demanding an immediate three-month humanitarian truce through the Jeddah platform as a prelude to reaching a permanent ceasefire.

The alliance argues that addressing the country’s catastrophic humanitarian situation must take precedence over forming dialogue committees, asserting that moving directly to political talks before addressing these conditions is entirely premature.

Beyond the immediate ceasefire demands, the alliance clarified its stance on Sudan’s future government structure and its own geopolitical weight.

While the alliance defended the conceptual framework of forming a parallel government, spokesperson Lissan noted that securing official recognition is not their priority at this stage; instead, they are leveraging an extensive network of diplomatic relationships with international systems, as well as regional and international powers.

On the other hand, the alliance criticized the lack of impartiality among certain members of the five-party mechanism, specifically targeting the African Union’s representative to Sudan, Mohamed Baalish.

However, it maintained that the African Union remains the most appropriate platform for sponsoring Sudanese dialogue, provided that the participating parties are selected based on objective criteria appropriate to the nature and complexities of the conflict.

Backing the alliance’s firm position, leadership body member Advisor Mohamed Al-Mukhtar Al-Nour held the Islamist movement responsible for the continuation of the war. He argued that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) did not initiate the conflict but rather found themselves confronted by it due to the political developments that followed the October 2021 coup.

Al-Nour concluded by reminding mediators of the realities on the ground, noting that the Ta’sis alliance controls vast areas of Sudanese territory and stating that any attempt to marginalize or exclude them represents an attempt to disregard the true balance of power and forcibly impose political agendas.