Ethiopia’s attempt to restructure its $1 billion Eurobond hit a fresh setback after negotiations with private bondholders ended without agreement, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.

In a statement issued on 27 May 2026, the ministry said a restricted dialogue session held from 6 May to 27 May with the bondholders’ Ad Hoc Committee concluded without a deal, effectively closing the designated negotiation period. The talks were aimed at resolving the country’s default on the 6.625% bond that matured in 2024.

The ministry said the discussions were centered on finding terms that would satisfy the Comparability of Treatment principle set by the co-chairs of the Official Creditor Committee, while also keeping the restructuring within a market-based framework.

According to the ministry, an earlier agreement in principle reached on 12 January 2024 had included a Value Recovery Instrument, a mechanism designed to give creditors additional payments if Ethiopia’s macroeconomic performance improved. But the Official Creditor Committee later said the country’s wider economic conditions were not suitable for such a structure and that the proposal did not meet the comparability requirement.

Ethiopia then tabled a revised proposal that removed the VRI entirely. The ministry said the new terms were reviewed by the OCC co-chairs and found to comply with the principle of comparability of treatment.

Under the revised offer, Ethiopia proposed issuing $880 million in new bonds, representing a 12% haircut on the original principal. The new instrument would have matured on 15 July 2029 and carried an annual interest rate of 4.25%, payable twice a year on 15 January and 15 July.

The proposal also laid out a four-stage repayment plan for the principal: $180 million on 15 July 2026, another $180 million on 15 July 2027, $260 million on 15 July 2028 and a final $260 million on 15 July 2029.

In addition, the government offered a consent fee of 0.5% of the original 2024 bond value and proposed clearing $99.375 million in past-due interest at settlement. That amount covered three missed coupon payments between December 2023 and December 2024.

Despite those concessions, the Ad Hoc Committee rejected the revised proposal within the negotiation window, bringing the latest round of talks to an end without agreement.

The Ministry of Finance said it was disappointed by the outcome, but stressed that Ethiopia remains committed to honoring its debt obligations. It added that the government would continue seeking a market-based solution for the 2024 bond that complies with the Official Creditor Committee’s comparability principle and aligns with the commitments under the International Monetary Fund program.

Africa’s air cargo demand rose by 7.7% in April year-on-year, even as capacity on the continent fell by 9.4%, according to new global data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The increase came as Africa-Asia trade led global growth, highlighting the continent’s growing role in long-haul air freight flows despite wider disruption in the Middle East.

The latest figures show that global air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers, increased by 4.0% in April compared with the same month last year, while capacity slipped by 0.4%. IATA said the overall rise was driven mainly by strong Asia-linked trade flows, but warned that the gains were being shaped by conflict-related disruptions in the Middle East and higher operating costs .

For Africa, the strongest signal was on the Africa-Asia lane, which grew by 12.8% year-on-year and marked 10 consecutive months of expansion. That performance suggests continued demand for time-sensitive cargo moving between African exporters and Asian markets, even as regional airlines faced tighter capacity. The data also points to Africa’s increasing integration into global supply chains, particularly in sectors that rely on speed and reliability.

IATA said African airlines recorded the demand growth despite a decline in capacity, a combination that may reflect both operational constraints and changing routing patterns in global freight. The association noted that major Gulf hubs were badly affected by the war in the Middle East, forcing trade routes to shift and creating strain on key corridors used by cargo carriers.

The broader freight environment remains mixed. Global trade contracted by 2.1% in March after four months of growth, underlining how quickly geopolitical shocks can interrupt momentum. At the same time, jet fuel prices jumped by 121.1% year-on-year in April, while crude oil prices rose by 77.7%, adding cost pressure for carriers already operating in a volatile market.

Despite those pressures, manufacturing conditions remained supportive. The global Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 53.4 in April, while new export orders reached 50.2, both above the 50-point threshold that signals expansion. That suggests underlying demand for air freight remains intact, even if the trade environment is unstable.

Africa’s performance also stands out when compared with other regions. Asia-Pacific airlines saw demand rise by 10.5%, Europe by 6.0% and North America by 5.0%, while Middle Eastern carriers posted an 18.2% drop in demand, the weakest performance globally. The decline in the Middle East is closely tied to disruption in Gulf-linked routes, which IATA said were severely affected by the conflict.

The Africa-Asia lane was not the only strong performer. Within Asia, cargo demand rose 13.0% for the 30th consecutive month of growth, while Europe-Asia increased 16.2% and within Europe grew 14.0%. By contrast, Europe-Middle East fell 25.9% and Middle East-Asia dropped 22.4%, underscoring the uneven impact of the conflict on global freight corridors.

For African exporters and logistics operators, the data suggest both opportunity and strain. Higher demand toward Asia may support revenues, but lower capacity could mean tighter space, more volatility in rates and greater pressure on airlines to maintain service reliability. If conflict-related rerouting persists, African carriers could face both stronger demand and higher costs at the same time.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the industry’s recent gains are being supported by dedicated freighters, which continue to play a central role in keeping supply chains moving amid trade disruptions. He said the coming months will test how well the sector can absorb geopolitical uncertainty and elevated operating costs.

Ethiopia has approved its first national trade policy, a long-awaited reform aimed at ending more than a century of fragmented trade administration and creating a more predictable framework for exporters, importers and investors.

The policy, approved on 26 May 2026, is intended to replace a patchwork of laws, directives and procedures that officials say has weakened the country’s trade sector and limited its competitiveness. For decades, trade in Ethiopia has been managed through separate institutions and shifting rules, a situation critics say has encouraged inefficiency, illegality and corruption while discouraging new entrants into the market.

Trade and Regional Integration Minister Kasahun Gofe said the new framework would bring stability and consistency to trade regulation. He said laws, directives and procedures would move away from frequent changes and become more transparent, accountable and predictable for businesses.

According to the ministry, the policy is also designed to shift Ethiopia’s economy away from its historic dependence on primary agricultural exports and toward manufacturing, value-added products, services and tourism. Officials say that diversification is essential if the country is to build a more resilient export base and compete more effectively in regional and global markets.

The new policy introduces temporary tariff protections and incentive mechanisms meant to shield domestic industries from intense foreign competition while local firms build capacity and productivity. The government says the measures are intended to create space for emerging sectors to grow before competing fully on the international market.

For years, trade was treated as a non-productive sector in policy discussions, leaving it without a clear strategic direction, according to stakeholders. That approach, they say, benefited established firms already in the market while blocking new exporters from entering the field. The result was a weak trading environment that lagged behind many other Sub-Saharan African economies.

Kasahun Mamo, Deputy Secretary General for Business Development Services and Policy Advocacy at the Addis Ababa Chamber of Commerce and Sectoral Associations, said the chamber had long pushed for a comprehensive national trade policy. He said the absence of a clear policy had left Ethiopia behind its peers and made it harder for the private sector to plan and invest.

He said a strong trade policy must involve all relevant actors, especially the private sector, and must help move the country’s export profile beyond primary agricultural commodities. That, he said, means expanding manufacturing, value-added goods, service exports and tourism, while also diversifying export destinations.

Kasahun also called for the creation of a National Trade Facilitation Agency. He said a dedicated and independent institution should be established to coordinate public and private actors involved in trade facilitation and to strengthen capacity across the sector.

Such an institution, he said, would help improve the movement of capital, people and data while reducing non-tariff barriers in both foreign and domestic markets. He expressed hope that the new policy would also lead to reforms in existing trade incentives and mechanisms, creating a more dynamic business environment.

The approval of the policy marks a significant step in Ethiopia’s efforts to modernize its trade system and align it more closely with its industrial and export ambitions. It now remains to be seen how quickly the government can turn the policy into practical reforms that improve competitiveness, support new exporters and expand the country’s trade footprint.

|Austria, Vienna

Ethiopia is moving rapidly to construct its first nuclear power plant and expand cancer treatment facilities. At the same time, a former senior official of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that corrupt foreign contractors are targeting Africa’s weak regulatory systems by disguising deadly radioactive waste as ordinary cargo.

The IAEA has urged African countries to significantly strengthen their regulatory systems so that foreign waste-disposal companies cannot exploit governance gaps to deceive them. The warning comes at a critical time, as countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Liberia are expanding peaceful nuclear programs in the medical, agricultural and power generation sectors.

Tariq Rauf, former Head of Verification and Security Policy at the IAEA, current Director of Atomic Reporters and a senior consultant on global nuclear affairs, told Capital that contractors from developed nations bribe local officials to pass off dangerous nuclear materials as harmless commercial cargo.

“Corrupt foreign contractors exploit weak infrastructure and governance gaps in developing countries to transport hazardous radioactive waste by disguising it as ordinary commercial cargo,” Tariq said. He emphasized that because developed countries have enacted strict environmental laws, it is far cheaper for waste-disposal companies to ship hazardous materials to Africa than to dispose of them in their own countries. “No country should import waste from another country, period,” he added.

The strategy, he said, is highly insidious. Contractors allegedly collude with corrupt officials to alter customs declarations and manifests, allowing radioactive materials to pass through ports undetected.

This practice has already led several African countries to accept illegal shipments unwittingly, creating long-term environmental and public health crises that future generations will have to bear. Ethiopia is seen as a critical case study in this broader tension between nuclear ambition and regulatory vulnerability. Although the country is moving to expand nuclear science across several sectors, experts are urging the establishment of a robust legal framework.

In 2025, the agency facilitated the donation of a state-of-the-art linear accelerator (LINAC), supplied by Varian, to Black Lion Hospital in Addis Ababa. In addition, five more radiotherapy centers are planned or under construction in Gondar, Hawassa, Harar and Mekelle.

The IAEA has publicly praised Ethiopia’s commitment to establishing a new nuclear commission, describing it as a crucial step that provides a legal framework for the sector and helps put nuclear energy into practice for peaceful purposes.

The agency has also said nuclear power is a reliable energy source with low greenhouse-gas emissions and is vital to accelerating social and economic growth. It has reaffirmed its readiness to help Ethiopia achieve its nuclear energy goals.

However, Tariq Rauf warns that countries new to the sector face unique vulnerabilities. Speaking to Capital, he said, “For countries like Ethiopia that wish to build nuclear capacity, establishing an unshakeable regulatory framework is not just a bureaucratic prerequisite; it is a matter of national security.”

Rauf highlighted three critical regulatory red lines that governments must address to ensure safety standards are never compromised for short-term gains. These include enacting clear nuclear laws that strictly limit permissible radiation exposure for both professionals and the public; ensuring that regulatory bodies have robust enforcement powers to inspect facilities, issue licenses and monitor the full lifecycle of radioactive materials; and establishing national and regional training institutions to build a domestic workforce capable of safely managing complex technical systems.

“The country that produced the waste must dispose of it itself,” Rauf said, stressing that strict laws in developed countries make shipping waste to Africa cheaper for waste companies and that no country should import waste from another.

Beyond illegal waste imports, he said, one of the biggest internal challenges in developing countries is the failure to properly track medical or industrial radioactive materials that have reached the end of their service life.

Without a strong regulatory system, such spent materials could be discarded without proper disposal or enter the regular scrap-metal market, posing a severe radiation risk to the local population.

Ethiopia is currently studying its long-term energy options, balancing water, gas, solar and nuclear power for its rapidly growing population of more than 130 million people.

At the Second Nuclear Energy Summit in Paris on March 10, 2026, Ethiopia’s Minister of Irrigation and Lowlands, Abraham Belay, set out the country’s position on behalf of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

“Ethiopia has made a sovereign choice to use the atom for the peaceful development of our country’s energy and the peaceful growth of our people,” he said.

Abraham acknowledged the country’s energy vulnerability. “Our hydropower fluctuates with the climate, and we cannot rely solely on rain. Soon, our demand will exceed our supply,” he warned. Explaining that Ethiopia’s ambition is purely civilian, he added, “Our demand is for kilowatts, not nuclear weapons.”

The country has already taken tangible steps toward that goal. In January 2026, the Ethiopian Nuclear Energy Commission, in collaboration with the Ethiopian Academy of Sciences, organized a workshop in Addis Ababa to review the initial report on the site study for the nuclear power plant. The workshop examined methodologies for assessing seismic hazards, hydrology and environmental impacts, and explicitly benchmarked the process against IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-35.

This is especially important because Ethiopia lies within the East African Rift Valley, a geologically active region. A strong seismic hazard analysis is essential to ensure that any nuclear facility can withstand earthquake risks. Technical teams are using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) together with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to classify potential sites.

While nuclear power plant construction remains a long-term goal, the immediate use of peaceful nuclear technology is already generating investment returns across Ethiopia’s health, agriculture and industrial sectors.

In agriculture, nuclear techniques are being used to develop drought-resistant crops and pest-control methods. Studies are also under way to use radiation-induced mutation breeding to develop improved seed varieties that require minimal moisture — an innovation considered critical in regions facing increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns.

The IAEA laboratory in Austria also plays a critical role in calibrating equipment and determining precise radiation doses. As Tariq Rauf noted, if radiation is not properly managed during cancer treatment, it can harm patients. “The dose must be absolutely precise to kill the cancer and prevent further damage to healthy cells,” he said.