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Monte Carlo Simulation

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A Monte Carlo simulation is a way to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to the intervention of random variables. It is a technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations can be applied to a range of problems in many fields, including investing, business, physics, and engineering. It is also referred to as a multiple probability simulation.

EIH proposes a Fuel Depot in Djibouti to Boost Regional Energy Logistics

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Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) has formally requested a 10-hectare plot of land within the Djibouti Damerjog Industrial Park (DDIP).

This proposal aims to construct a 150,000 cubic meter (cbm) fuel storage depot during its first phase, marking a strategic expansion into Djibouti’s specialized energy corridor.

The plan was unveiled during a high-level meeting at the Red Sea World, where the Chairman of the Djibouti Ports and Free Zones Authority, Abubaker Omar Hadi received Meleket Sahlu, Deputy CEO of EIH.

The requested site is strategically located near the park’s main manifold and the Ethio-Djibouti railway line, ensuring that fuel can be offloaded from tankers and transitioned to rail for efficient inland distribution to Ethiopia.

This initiative comes as Ethiopia seeks to diversify its logistics hubs and mitigate supply disruptions, particularly since the Horizon Terminals facility has reached its full capacity of 5 million tonnes.

In contrast, the new Damerjog Liquid Bulk Port offers an annual dynamic capacity of 25 million tonnes, along with modern infrastructure and cost-effective logistics solutions, providing a significant opportunity for Ethiopia to meet its rising fuel storage needs.

During the discussions, the Chairman encouraged EIH to seize this investment opportunity, emphasizing the critical importance of fuel reserves for national security amid the ongoing Gulf crisis.

Ultimately, this project is part of a broader vision to transform the Djibouti-Ethiopia corridor into a world-class energy hub—comparable to global centers like Fujairah—while helping Ethiopia achieve energy autonomy and reduce high demurrage costs associated with vessel delays.

Tender IGAD German Cooperation

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Publication date: 10th March 2026

Country: Ethiopia

Project Executing Agency:

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)

Project title:

Regional Migration Fund supporting Migrants, Refugees and Host Communities (“RMF“)

Tender title:

Request for Proposals for Consulting Services for Design & Supervision on Rehabilitation and Establishment of water supply system – Lagsure Kebele, Moyale Woreda, Oromia region and El Kalu Kebele, Moyale Woreda Somali region, Ethiopia

Tender number:

RFP NO. IGAD-RMF/GC-NCB/02-2026

KfW/BMZ reference number:

BMZ No. 2017 67 961

Type of notice:

Tender Advertisement

Tender brief description:

The Regional Migration Fund supporting Migrants, Refugees and Host Communities (“RMF“) Project is in the process of rehabilitating and establishment of water supply systems in – Lagsure Kebele, Moyale Woreda, Oromia region and El Kalu Kebele, Moyale Woreda Somali region, in The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

This will require the support of a consultancy firm to support IGAD in the following stages of the assignment.

a)         Stage 1: Detailed Design and Preparation of Works Tender Documents

b)         Stage 2: Assistance During Tendering

c)         Stage 3: Supervision of Construction Works and Supplies

d)         Stage 4: Services during Contractor’s Defects Notification Period and Closure of the Project 

How to obtain documents and submit proposals:

Firms intending to participate in the Tender are required to register and download the Request for Proposal (RFP) files and annexes via the E-tender portal Exfitender https://app.exfitender.de/app.

Proposals from eligible bidders will also be uploaded via the same portal Exfitender https://app.exfitender.de/app before the deadline 20th April 2026 0900 HRS (CET). Please note the time is CET Central European Time and not East Africa Time.

All communication on this Tender will strictly be coordinated via the E-tender portal:

Exfitender https://app.exfitender.de/app

The Tender Process is subject to KfW’s „Guidelines for the Procurement of Consulting Services, Works, Plant, Goods and Non-Consulting Services in Financial Cooperation with Partner Countries“, seehttps://www.kfw-entwicklungsbank.de/International-financing/KfW-Development-Bank/Publications-Videos/Publication-series/Guidelines-and-contracts/

Ethiopia Issues Emergency Fuel Utilization Directive Amid Global Supply Crisis

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The Ethiopia Petroleum and Energy Authority (PEA), has introduced a stringent fuel conservation and prioritization directive designed to shield the national economy from the volatile international oil market.

Issued on March 17, 2026, the directive comes as the government warns of significant disruptions to global oil shipments triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Following instabilities in international supply chains and the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, the Authority has mandated that all oil companies and retail stations transition their operations to a high-conservation model.

Destaw Mekuanent, Director General of PEA emphasized that fuel must be treated as a strategic resource until the international supply system stabilizes. Under the new guidelines, fuel companies are ordered to prioritize specific key sectors to ensure the country’s essential functions continue without interruption.

Consequently, uninterrupted supply has been arranged for national security institutions and key government infrastructure projects, particularly those nearing completion.

Furthermore, manufacturing industries, institutions producing basic consumer goods, and large-scale agricultural operations have been granted priority to maintain the domestic supply chain, while export-oriented organizations engaged in international trade are also prioritized to protect the nation’s foreign exchange earnings.

The directive establishes strict operational standards for gas stations to prevent illegal hoarding and black-market activities.

Effective immediately, stations must prioritize public transport vehicles to facilitate the movement of the workforce.

The Director General stressed that refueling is permitted only into a vehicle’s original tank, with a strict ban imposed on station employees dispensing fuel into plastic containers, barrels, or any additional external tanks.

Stations found violating the directive by refueling unauthorized entities or engaging in unfair price hikes and “shadow market” activities will face immediate legal action under the National Energy Proclamation.

The Authority issued this directive following a recent message from the Prime Minister regarding the necessity of using fuel economically and prioritizing development projects.

To closely monitor the implementation process, the Authority has coordinated with trade bureaus at the regional, city, and district levels.

These bodies are now tasked with the responsibility of ensuring that fuel tankers arrive on time and that the resource is used exclusively for its intended purpose.