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A global COVID-19 exit strategy

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The COVID-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented threat to both public health and the global economy. Only by ditching nationalist rhetoric and policies, and embracing stronger international cooperation, can governments protect the people they claim to represent.

By Ngaire Woods and Rajaie Batniji

The world that emerges from the coronavirus pandemic may be a warring collection of countries that are more closed off and nationalistic than before. But without rapid and effective global cooperation, the world may not exit this crisis safely at all.
For now at least, heavy-handed nationalist responses predominate. Alongside curfews, lockdowns, and requisitioning, governments are closing borders and using wartime rhetoric to rally their populations. Global supply chains and trade are being disrupted not just by lockdowns, but also by wealthy countries’ competition for supplies.
Soon, however, governments will need to restart the global economy. And that will require international cooperation in several key areas.
The first crucial element of a COVID-19 exit strategy is massive testing (for both infection and immunity), so that healthy people can return to work and those who are infected can get appropriate treatment. For this, countries will need adequate supplies of testing kits and protective equipment, as well as ventilators and access to emerging treatments.
International cooperation is vital to enabling mass testing and treatment. A primary supplier of the swabs used for collecting nasopharyngeal samples, Copan, is based in Northern Italy. The reagents used to extract virus RNA from collected cells are produced mainly by Qiagen, a German company with a complex global supply chain. And foreign companies make roughly half of the ventilators in the United States; one-third come from Europe.
And yet, while governors of US states are bidding against one another for scarce ventilators, some European governments are barring their export. And a British government minister has said that the country’s inability to source necessary reagents is slowing down testing.
The solution is to increase cooperation in production and distribution, using global supply chains as effectively as possible, and pooling resources and equipment so that they can be allocated as the need for them shifts from one country to another. China, for example, is now donating ventilators to the United States and exporting masks.
A second component of an exit strategy is effective disease surveillance and control. True, many countries are balking at online surveillance of the sort used in China and South Korea. But with manual contact-tracing being too time-consuming, it is hard to envisage an exit strategy that does not include apps for this purpose.
Indeed, a new study by researchers at the University of Oxford suggests that tracing apps can be effective in reducing infection rates, even when just 60% of the population adopts them. Western societies therefore need to learn from the successes of China and South Korea, and balance fears of ramping up their own governments’ surveillance capacity against the harm people suffer from being kept in lockdown.
Hesitant countries should cooperate fast to adapt surveillance tools to the need to protect civil rights. This will require transparent oversight, clear principles of fairness (including equal access and treatment), robust data protection, and audits of the algorithms used.
Third, a global COVID-19 exit strategy would be safest with an effective vaccine. Fortunately, international scientific cooperation is accelerating progress toward developing one. Researchers in China, the US, and Europe are sharing viral genome sequences, while doctors from Harvard University; the Xijing Hospital in Xi’an, China; and Northern Italy are working on treatments, and top virologists are sharing findings on World Health Organization conference calls and placing them in online archives such as medRxiv and bioRxiv.
International cooperation will also be required to ensure that a vaccine is deployed globally. In recent days, the Chinese authorities have reported new cases of COVID-19 that have been “imported” from other countries, while some experts in Europe and North America are already anticipating a second wave of the virus.
Here, history is instructive. Although vaccinations enabled most wealthy countries to eliminate smallpox unilaterally by the late 1940s, the disease kept returning from outside their borders. It took a global effort launched by the WHO to eradicate smallpox globally by 1978.
There is also a need for an early-warning system to detect the emergence of new or mutated viruses. As South Korea has shown, an early COVID-19 warning enables a government to react rapidly by ramping up testing and engaging the whole population in contact tracing and containment, thereby potentially reducing the economic and social costs of an outbreak.
But early warnings require governments to tell the world about novel infections as soon as they discover them, which can be a sensitive matter. Countries thus need assurances that reporting disease outbreaks will not expose them to instant punishment in the form of unnecessary travel and trade restrictions, and that any such measures would be introduced cooperatively.
The world should have learned this lesson during the SARS and Ebola epidemics of the last two decades. Travel and trade restrictions imposed by 40 countries impeded the reporting of Ebola outbreaks, hindering the global response. Similarly, China’s experience with SARS may have left its leaders less inclined to notify the outside world about the COVID-19 outbreak. Once they did, countries closed their borders in ways that contradicted WHO guidance. After this crisis is over, governments will need to bolster the early-warning system, on the understanding that this requires a cooperative quid pro quo.
Finally, the faster and more effectively we act to contain the spread of the virus in the world’s poorest and most populous countries, the better we can protect everyone. This requires urgent investments in prevention that also depend on cooperation – including via the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the International Monetary Fund’s emergency financing (which more than 90 countries have so far requested), and the World Bank’s emergency health support.
The COVID-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented threat to both public health and the global economy. Only by ditching nationalist rhetoric and policies, and embracing stronger international cooperation, can governments protect the people they claim to represent.

Ngaire Woods is Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford.
Rajaie Batniji is co-founder of Collective Health.

Multi-award winning Ethiopian movie to be streamlined with English subtitles

Online streaming service habeshaview is to offer limited access to the Ethiopian movie Enchained, starting on Saturday, April 18 2020. At a time when many families are spending time at home, habeshaview is inviting audiences around the world to enjoy the award-winning movie Enchained from the comfort of their own home.
This will be the first time Enchained will be screened outside of a cinema, in collaboration with The International Emerging Film Talents Association (IEFTA). The film is easily accessible by downloading the habeshaview app. After a one-time purchase, viewers will have access to the movie on any of their favorite smart devices.
Enchained is a lush historical drama set in 1910, and was selected as the Opening Movie of the prestigious 2020 New African Film Festival in the United States. The Ethiopian production won the top prizes at the Alem Cinema Awards and Lizzo Awards. The film screened internationally in New York, Washington DC, London and Addis Ababa.
At a time when many people are spending more time indoors, habeshaview is proud to share exclusive and excellent Ethiopian entertainment to its audiences around the world. Tigist Kebede, habeshaview operations director, says: “habeshaview is committed to raising the profile of Ethiopian films. With Enchained we provide audiences around the world with quality movies that inspire.”
Habeshaview is a privately held film distribution and media company that was established in 2014. habeshaview promotes the rich cultural heritage of several diaspora communities, history, traditions, socio-economic development, business environment, tourism and current affairs. Our vision is to work with different nations and to bring their national TV content and selected films and programs to the international market. We believe that this is the best way for diaspora communities to stay in touch with one another and to keep up to date with development taking place within their own countries.

ANDREA BOCELLI ‘MUSIC FOR HOPE’

STREAMING WORLDWIDE EXCLUSIVELY ON YOUTUBE FROM THE DUOMO IN MILAN ON EASTER SUNDAY

April 7, 2020 – On Easter Sunday (April 12, 2020), Italian tenor and global music icon Andrea Bocelli will give a solo performance at the historic Duomo, the cathedral of Milan, Italy, by invitation of the City and of the cathedral, and thanks to the hospitality of the Archpriest and the Veneranda Fabbrica del Duomo.
“On the day on which we celebrate the trust in a life that triumphs, I’m honored and happy to answer ‘Sì’ to the invitation of the City and the Duomo of Milan”. This is how Andrea Bocelli said ‘yes’ to the City of Milan in this dark time that has wounded all of Italy.
There will be no audience present, and strictly no access for the public (in compliance with government regulations on Covid-19), but the concert will be exclusively streamed live globally on the tenor’s YouTube channel, uniting the world in the face of a global pandemic.
In a concert representing a message of love, healing and hope to Italy and the world, the Duomo, a national and international landmark, currently closed to all, will open its doors exceptionally for Andrea Bocelli who will be accompanied only by the cathedral organist, Emanuele Vianelli, playing one of world’s largest pipe organs. The carefully selected pieces, specially arranged for solo voice and organ for the occasion, will include the well-loved Ave Maria setting by Bach/Gounod and Mascagni’s Sancta Maria – uplifting sacred music repertoire on a day symbolic of the renewal of life.
The event is promoted by the City of Milan and the Veneranda Fabbrica del Duomo, produced by Sugar Music and Universal Music Group, thanks to the generous contribution of YouTube. Andrea Bocelli’s participation is entirely pro-bono (in collaboration with Almud and Maverick Management).
“I am happy Andrea has accepted our invitation,” said the Mayor of Milan, Giuseppe Sala. “This year, Easter will be very different for all of us. The joyous serenity that usually comes with this day, has been greatly troubled by the pandemic we are experiencing. I am sure that the extraordinary voice of Bocelli will be the embrace we are missing these days, a strong, special hug, capable of warming the heart of Milan, Italy and the world.”
“Our ‘Hallelujah’ is an invitation that we placed in the ark forty days ago and that the flood, which has overwhelmed us all, almost made us forget the joy of expressing it on the day of Easter. The voice and word of Andrea Bocelli reminds us that the reason for our hope does not come from us but it is a gift that comes from God. This is what it means to promote, from our Duomo – the home of the people of Milan – and through the voice of Bocelli, the confidence that the Spirit of the Risen Crucifix will help us shape the days granted to us in the Kingdom of the One who wanted a new humanity, united and fraternal,” said Monsignor Gianantonio Borgonovo, Archpriest of the Duomo of Milan.
“I believe in the strength of praying together; I believe in the Christian Easter, a universal symbol of rebirth that everyone – whether they are believers or not – truly needs right now. Thanks to music, streamed live, bringing together millions of clasped hands everywhere in the world, we will hug this wounded Earth’s pulsing heart, this wonderful international forge that is reason for Italian pride.
The generous, courageous, proactive Milan and the whole of Italy will be again, and very soon, a winning model, engine of a renaissance that we all hope for. It will be a joy to witness it, in the Duomo, during the Easter celebration which evokes the mystery of birth and rebirth,” said Andrea Bocelli.
Bocelli, with the Foundation that carries his name, is currently involved in an emergency COVID-19 campaign.

The Coronavirus And Globalization

Continued from last week

The Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Alicia Barcena, recently warned that the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will have devastating effects on the global economy that will certainly be more intense than and distinct from those felt during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. She argued that the COVID-19 crisis will go down in history as one of the worst the world has endured. She explained that this virus endangers an essential global public good, human health, and it will impact an already weakened global economy, affecting it both from the supply and demand side, whether through the interruption of production chains, which will severely hurt global trade, or through the loss of income and profitability due to higher unemployment and greater difficulties to pay debt service obligations.
The initial shortage of products and parts from China affected companies around the world, as factories delayed opening after the Lunar New Year and workers stayed home to help reduce the spread of the virus. Apple’s manufacturing partner in China, Foxconn, faced production delays. Some carmakers including Nissan and Hyundai temporarily closed factories outside China because they couldn’t get parts. By March, countries such as Italy had closed all but the most essential factories. The pharmaceutical industry, bracing for disruption to global production since February, reported fears of drug shortages as India faced lockdowns 24 March. India supplies nearly half of the generic drugs for countries such as the United States. Most trade shows, cultural and sporting events across the world have been cancelled or postponed.
Andres Ortega, senior research fellow at the Elcano Royal Institute in Spain stated that this pandemic is four shocks in one. This is simultaneously a human shock, a supply-side shock, involving production, and a demand-side shock involving consumption, with the added danger of a new financial crisis. It may be, as Holman Jenkins, economics columnist at the Wall Street Journal, suggests, that recession is part of the eminently sensible method used to combat the virus. In other words, the suppression of demand that results from keeping people in their homes at least implicitly promotes public health.
On the other hand, increasing numbers of supply chains are seizing up or stalling. According to Andres Ortega, this is partly due to the fact that they have become much more complex than they were in 2008. Many factories making machinery, cars, toys and other products have had to cut or cease production for lack of vital components. They often originated in China but, with border closings inside the EU, also increasingly affect intra-European supply chains. The pandemic has laid bare our mutual economic dependence, the degree of interdependence on which we rely. And there is no shortage of people advocating retreat.
For example, Bruno Le Maire, the French Finance Minister, says “we should reduce our dependence on great powers such as China.” That statement is not far removed from the proposals of the United States Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, taking advantage of coronavirus. Many companies have realized the risks of this over-interdependence and intend to curb it. A recent Bank of America report states that 80% of the multinationals investigated plan to repatriate part of their production, known as re-shoring, a trend that COVID-19 could turn into a tidal wave.
Although walls, unlike with social distancing, do not halt its spread, the virus is going to lead to greater national emphasis, or regional emphasis at least, on production. This includes the field of medical supplies. The crisis has revealed, for instance, Europe’s over-dependence on medicines manufactured in China and India which has slashed its exports. The reaction of the Czech Health Minister, Adam Vojtech, when he pointed out that Europeans depend on such countries for a third of their medicines mainly generic, and that their production should be brought to Europe to ensure supply, may prove to be paradigmatic. As though in response, China, with its own pandemic apparently under control, is airlifting massive deliveries of health supplies to Italy and Spain.
Contrast that enlightened action with President Donald’s Trump unilateral suspension of flights between Europe and the United States. This action not only damaged transatlantic relationships even further. It also runs contrary to the advice of the World Health Organization (WHO), which advocated for continued flights precisely in order not to disrupt the supply of medical aid. That said, while COVID-19 and the way of addressing it is slowing physical globalization down, it is also promoting an ever more digital, online form of globalization. Remote working has won scores of new converts, as have online services and e-learning in schools.
Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist at Berenberg Bank in London stated that Courier companies, operating by van and bicycle, are ultimately based on physical realities. It stands to reason that systems using drones and other autonomous systems will make headway, as has already happened in China during this crisis. The same applies to digital services for detecting illnesses using artificial intelligence, and robots for all manner of services.
Holger Schmieding argued that it is enlightened globalism in action. The World Health Organization and the multilateralism, indeed the globalism, that it represents has had its centrality restored. At the same time, the crisis has also involved the comeback of the nation state. What the coronavirus crisis thus demonstrates is that there is no implicit or explicit contrast between these two forms of government. They go hand in hand.
Kallum Pickering, Senior Economist at Berenberg Bank in London on his part argued that leadership also matters. These are times demanding individual leadership, certainly, but above all collective leadership, something that is not yet taking place in Europe. They also require rehabilitating the idea of a global community in the face of what is undoubtedly a global menace. Populism too is also present in some reactions, or lack of reactions, to this pandemic.
The virus, as Thomas Wright and Kurt Campbell have argued, reveals the limits of populism, a populism that is essentially against globalization and that puts nation first. What has not occurred yet, though, is to put a lid on discrimination or national narratives, which have come back with renewed vigor. This is damaging because it is actually imperative for international cooperation to advance, not retreat.
To conclude, when the pandemic is finally overcome, globalization will resume but in a guise that is less intense and different from the one we have known up to now. The global standstill will have lasting and not necessarily positive consequences. The proper response to tackle the pandemic is to implement solutions that will “distribute the future,” and its financial risks, more evenly. Global problems require global responses. This is consistent with the ethos of globalization. Only international cooperation helps. In short, more international cooperation is required to deal with present and future pandemics, first to address present dangers, second to mitigate future risks.
Cooperative measures must be undertaken at the international and regional level, between governments, in public-private partnerships and between private-sector partners. At the international level, the World Health Organization is already taking a leading role through its Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan. However, stronger regional and national responses are also required to address diseases of zoonotic origin, as well as other pandemic risks. It is true that the cost of inaction is sky-high.
To make it all possible, more government financial support is needed. This should take the form of public sector grants and private sector tax credits. If the private sector is to bring new drugs and detection equipment to market more quickly, its risk of failure must be mitigated by government. It is unrealistic to expect the private sector to bear the full risk of research and development. It is also unrealistic for governments to wait for a miracle to eliminate future pandemics. Governments must act. They need to cooperate, not just on R&D, but also on risk assessment and management.
For Research and Development (R&D) to be more effective, it is imperative to increase the scientific culture of sharing, so that medical research is pooled more effectively and more quickly internationally among public and private sector actors. This may be one of the most promising avenues available, and if successful would reach communities in both the developed and developing world. Global health risks are simply global. The solutions must be as well.
Finally, free market advocates also need to rethink their approach. Dealing with pandemics will involve additional government resources for research and development into novel viruses and early detection tests. These activities will need to be spread out in government laboratories, such as the United States National Institutes of Health (NIH), as well as in private foundations such as the French Institut Pasteur, and at public universities and research facilities. Delaying appropriate government responses will only bring more illness and death. Strengthening international cooperation on research and development, as well as risk assessment and management, would be consistent with the ethos of globalization and would do much to reduce risks associated with future pandemics.