Operations to restore law and order in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region: How did we get here?
By Abiy Ahmed
When I took office as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in April 2018, I had only one driving mission for my premiership – to put my country and people on a path to lasting peace and prosperity. I vowed to myself, my family and my people, in private and in public, that I would never resort to force as a way of resolving internal political differences. I believe that no problem is worthy of any bloodshed, that all problems can be resolved amicably if we have the courage of our convictions to sit around a table, in good faith, in search of mutually acceptable solutions. I further declared that the only enemy I would mobilize my people and resources to wage war against was poverty.
However, my vision and determination came under severe strain right from the start of my premiership. It did not take long for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leadership to launch a campaign, covertly and overtly, to undermine my administration and make our people and the rest of the world believe that, without them at the helm, Ethiopia would be ungovernable. To make their case, the TPLF leadership had to produce the evidence of ungovernability themselves, organizing a clandestine nationwide campaign of criminality and violence: sponsoring, financing, and training disaffected individuals to instigate communal clashes and attacks on members of ethnic minorities in different parts of the country. Attacks sponsored and orchestrated by the TPLF leadership left more than two million people internally displaced and thousands dead in the past two and half years.
I was fully aware that the TPLF leadership orchestrated the mayhem, bordering on party-sponsored terrorism, diverting budgetary resources allocated by the Federal Government to pay for their criminal enterprise and destabilize the nation. But, despite overwhelming pressure from the public for the Government to stop them by all means necessary, including through the use of force, I made it clear, repeatedly, that my Government would never resort to force to resolve the matter. I shared this firm and clear position to the TPLF leaders directly, in person and on the phone, and reassured the Ethiopian people, including our citizens in the Tigray Region, through mainstream and social media.
When the TPLF leadership rejected my personal invitations to engage with my administration in constructive dialogue on the future of our nation, I encouraged the country’s most senior religious and community leaders to travel to Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray Region, and help federal and regional political leaders resolve the differences peacefully. Regrettably, these most revered community and religious leaders were rebuffed by the TPLF leadership, treating them with utmost contempt and sending them back with nothing.
Even then, I did not give up; I would not. As I’ve said before, my own life has taught me that war is “the epitome of hell for all involved”. I did not come to office to take my people to hell; on the contrary, I came to office with a commitment to lead my people towards peace and prosperity. Since I came to office just over 30 months ago, I reiterated, time and again, that nothing would distract me away from my firm position on this matter. Regrettably, all my persistent efforts to avoid conflict by all means were taken for weakness.
In the end, however, the choice was not to be mine. While I was preaching peace and prosperity for my country and people, and working day and night to realize it, a violent attack was launched against my Government and people. On the night of 03 November 2020, the TPLF leadership launched, under cover of darkness, what they later described, on public television, as a “lightening pre-emptive attack” against the Northern Command of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), which had been stationed in the Region since the outbreak of war with Eritrea over two decades ago. Using traitors recruited from within the army along ethnic lines, not only did the TPLF leadership cause the massacre of unarmed soldiers in their pyjamas in the dead of night, they also took possession, illegally, of the entire military arsenal of the Northern Command. I was thus left with a decision only of how, not whether, to fight to defend the integrity of my country and restore the constitutional order.
More than the attack, what shocked me and my fellow Ethiopians to the core was the level of cruelty the TPLF leadership displayed in the conduct of their criminal operations. After they surprised and overpowered several regiments of the ENDF forces, the TPLF identified and separated hundreds of unarmed Ethiopian soldiers of non-Tigrayan origin, tied their hands and feet together, massacred them in cold blood, and left their bodies lying in open air. Never would I have imagined it humanly possible for any person to kill their fellow soldiers while asleep and record themselves singing and dancing on the bodies of their victims.
Following their surprise attack on their own unsuspecting fellow Ethiopians, it didn’t take long for the TPLF leadership to start celebrating and gloating in public about their prowess and invincibility in war and how they have now transformed themselves, overnight, into the largest fighting force in the entire Horn of Africa.
With the benefit of hindsight, the surprise attack by the TPLF forces had three interrelated objectives. First, by attacking the Northern Command, which accounted for the bulk of Ethiopia’s most experienced combat forces, they aimed to weaken the capability of the ENDF to safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. Second, by using ethnic Tigrayans members of the ENDF to carry out the attack on their comrades-in-arms from other ethnic groups, they aimed to divide and destroy whatever was left of the ENDF as a cohesive national defence force. Third, once the ENDF was so fractured, defeated and destroyed, and the country almost certainly descended into anarchy, the TPLF would present themselves as the only force that could put the country back together, thus removing and replacing the federal government by force.
My primary duty as prime minister and commander in chief is to protect the nation and its people from internal and external enemies. That is why the Federal Government launched and successfully executed defensive operations to restore law and order in the Tigray Region, regrettably making the use of force the only tool left in our arsenal.
I recognize that, in the end, everyone is entitled to their opinions. Only history will judge whether the Federal Government under my leadership could have done anything else to resolve the existential crisis my old and proud nation faced on that fateful night of 03 November and its aftermath.
As I write this article, the Ethiopian army has completed its mission according to plan and captured the regional capital of Mekelle without the large-scale civilian casualties and war crimes that so many in the international community confidently predicted. Yet, despite the success of these operations, I’m not celebrating; I cannot be. While I admire the courage and sacrifice of our men and women in uniforms, I know the conflict has caused unimaginable suffering. This is a conflict in which Ethiopians had to kill their fellow Ethiopians, target and destroy their own defence infrastructure and weaken their own defence capability. At the same time, I also know that the Federal Government was forced to engage in this operation for existential reasons – the future of Ethiopia as a sovereign nation and the peaceful co-existence of its people was at stake. The heavy cost we incurred as a nation was necessary.
Now that the active phase of military operations is over, our next task is to launch the process of healing from the aftereffects of this traumatic conflict, to ensure our citizens in the affected areas, including those who have been forced to cross the borders to the Sudan, have unfettered access to humanitarian assistance and other support necessary to rehabilitate them back to normal life at the earliest opportunity. Also critical is the need to restore the transport and communications links destroyed by the conflict.
Having witnessed afresh the courage and determination of the Ethiopian people to protect their country from its enemies, I am confident that Ethiopia will rise back to its traditional role as the anchor of stability for the entire subregion and beyond.
At the same time, the peace and security we have restored at so much cost remain fragile. That is why we are determined to ensure our next elections, scheduled to take place in mid-2021, are fair, free, and inclusive, and that the people of Tigray, like all other Ethiopians, shall soon be led by a regional government of their free own choice.
Draft proclamation ridiculed
The business community blasted the new draft proclamation of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. A participant called it a ‘Treaty of Wuchale’ that aims to elevate their autonomy on pillar activities.
The draft proclamation that targets to replace the controversial Proclamation Chambers of Commerce and Sectorial Association Establishment no.341/2003 has been discussed as the event organized by Addis Ababa Chamber and Sectoral Association in collaboration with the Ministry of Trade and Industry, who is responsible on the drafting process.
The draft proclamation indicated that the formation of chambers will be carried out under state structure form and most of the participants who attended the discussion on Friday, December 25 at Sheraton Addis, ended up ridiculing it.
They said that at the inception the draft has made problems since it demands the business community to be organized under governmental administration form.
One of the participants argued that the business does not have a region like politics; it shall trade everywhere in the country and cities in different regions, “Such kind of formation process would not be acceptable for the business community.”
Mohammed Nur Sani, who is well known on the leadership of such kind of business associations, said that basically industry or agriculture are commerce due to that the name should be chamber of commerce other than adding other words. “Most of the countries are using similar name for chambers,” he said.
Mohammed argued that the proclamation does not have any change regarding membership from the existed 18 years old proclamation, “It was one of the major differences on the current proclamation. Membership shall be open for every interested individual companies or businesses.”
He recommended the proclamation to consider the involvement of associate members like higher education or other non-governmental organizations with not vote.
The veteran sector expert said that the percentage on the representation of board of directors would not benefit the interest of the members. Other rationality and optional formula should be considered on the representation,” he added.
The draft proclamation stated that the board of directors comprised by 50 percent from regional chamber of commerce and industry, 40 percent from national manufacturing industry and sectoral association and ten percent from national commerce association.
Yohannes Woldegabriel, prominent legal expert particularly engaged in arbitration at the chamber said that at the preamble the draft stated that the proclamation required the formation of a strong chamber that shall play pivotal role on the economic growth of the country in providing inputs for the government and stake holders.
“Against the experience of other countries, the draft proclamation rejects city chambers and targets to undertake the way of state structure,” he says “Cities are the initial point for the formation of national chamber. In my view urban based chambers should be encouraged.”
He reminded that EPRDF had extreme stereotype on urban based chambers and expressed his concern that this one may repeat that. According to him, two tiers system shall be applicable like others countries by including urban and national chambers other than the idea stated on the proclamation.
“Strong urban chamber shall help the business community than the current situation due to that is supposed to be implemented,” he explained.
The participants also expressed their concern that besides city chambers it totally ignored other economic zones like industry parks and manufacturing industries that for example concentrated on the outskirt of Addis Ababa.
Elias Genete, former President of Addis Ababa Chamber Commerce and Sectoral Association, expressed his concern that the proclamation might not be ratified by the proclamation since it does not take into account the current government structure of the federal system.
“According to the federal system of the country, regions have their own autonomy, while on my evaluation the draft proclamation has not considered that. Due to that it may not be accepted by parliament,” he explained.
He added that city chambers should be formed and they report to regional bodies.
“It mentioned the government economic policies at the preamble, which is not necessary to mention for the formation of chambers because they are independent from politics,” he added
Wubshet Hailu, owner of Watt International, strongly criticized the draft proclamation that he said on the drafting process was not consulting former chamber leaders who perfectly understand the challenges and gaps on the existed proclamation.
He added that the chamber of commerce must be established from the grass root at the city level, while the draft dissolved such structures.
“I fill that it looks like a ‘Treaty of Wuchale’ (a treaty signed between the Ethiopian government in the era of Emperor Minilik and Italy that was the cause for Adwa War) because it aims to enforce members to get certification for their every activities,” he says.
“It is indirect rule like the motive of a ‘Treaty of Wuchale’,” Wubshet said expressing his disappointment on the draft proclamation, and added that his companies will totally leave the chamber if this will be ratified.
Eshete Assefa, State Minister of Trade and Industry, told Capital that the drafting process of the proclamation inputs and claims that were presented by the chamber leadership in the past has been considered.
“We have created open discussion on the draft proclamation and will consider the arguments before finalizing the proclamation,” he stated.
Ethiopia set to start reporting FSIs for IMF
Ethiopia is set to start reporting Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI) for the Statistics Department (STA) of IMF as of this month in accordance with the 2019 FSI Guide using the workbook developed by IMF mission on the technical assistance that was mid this year.
The STA mission had paid an assistant mission in June remotely, on the aim to technical provide assistance to the Bank Supervision Directorate (BSD) of National Bank of Ethiopia to manage and commence the new reporting.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia has been reporting for IMF’s African Department (AFR) for deposit takers for internal use in its AFR’s financial stability analysis. It is the first time for the country to report to the STA. The quarterly report will be posted on the IMF FSI website, which makes Ethiopia another country alongside 143 countries who posts on the website.
BSD now can compile quarterly FSIs for DTs using the workbook developed by the mission and agreed on for reporting FSI data and metadata, a key for interpreting the FSIs and to allow for cross-country comparisons, to STA for posting on the IMF’s FSI website.
The quarterly reporting will start in this month for DTs with quarterly data beginning from the second quarter of 2017 and the institutional coverage with annual data starting from 2017.
“As this was the first FSI mission to work with the BSD in developing an FSI compilation framework, the mission reviewed the FSIs currently compiled by the BSD to assess consistency with the 2019 FSI Guide and found discrepancies in key indicators, including nonperforming loans (NPLs) to total gross loans, interest margin to gross income, noninterest expenses to gross income, and capital to assets,” IMF explained.
According to IMF technical assistance report, the main objectives of the mission that was conducted from June 15 to July 10 via video conference were to: review the source data, institutional coverage, and accounting and regulatory frameworks supporting the compilation of FSIs; provide guidance for mapping source data for the banking sector to the FSI reporting templates as well as preparing the metadata; and agree with the authorities on the timeline to begin regular reporting of the FSIs for deposit-takers to STA.
It added that the mission also provided technical assistance to the NBE on the compilation of net open positions in foreign currencies.
“This was the first STA mission on FSIs for the NBE. Ethiopia does not report FSIs to STA but it does produce and share a select subset of FSIs with the AFR department. Prior to this mission, Ethiopia received a monetary and financial statistics (MFS) mission which assisted the NBE in compiling MFS standardized report forms for the central bank and other depositary corporations in January 2019,” it added.
Ethiopia is currently under Extended Credit/Fund Facility (ECF/EFF) arrangements with proposed financial sector reforms.
“Improved FSIs are expected to facilitate better monitoring of financial stability by the NBE and help guide economic policies in the context of the ECF/EFF arrangements, by shedding light on the underlying accounting and regulatory frameworks for the FSIs,” the IMF said.
It said that as a result of the mission, the NBE is now in a position to report quarterly FSIs to STA in line with the 2019 FSI Guide. “Together with staff of the bank supervision department, the mission compiled 22 FSIs for deposit takers (DTs), and two FSIs on the size of Offshore Financial Centers (OFC’s) sector from the existing source data. The coverage of DTs for the compilation of FSIs includes 17 commercial banks which cover 90 percent of the entire DTs sector,” it explained.
The FSIs for DTs cover key aspects of capital adequacy, asset quality, earnings and profitability, and liquidity, providing a useful input for financial stability analysis.
The mission was able to assist the NBE in their mapping to the FSI workbook and validated aggregated data from bank- by- bank data for December 2019. In addition, the mission reviewed source data from the balance sheet, income statement, and supervisory data from June 2019 to December 2019 and made various recommendations to improve the collection of source data.
The mission assisted the NBE in the compilation of 11 core FSIs and 11 additional FSIs for deposit-takers as well as two additional FSIs relating to the size of OFC subsectors.
