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Capital markets will not deliver without a shift in mindset

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For decades, the architecture of capital formation in Ethiopia has evolved without the presence of formal capital markets. Businesses have been financed through retained earnings, informal savings arrangements, and, most prominently, the commercial banking system. This model has served the economy reasonably well in its formative years. It enabled firms to survive, grow incrementally, and navigate an environment characterized by limited institutional depth.

However, the very features that made this system resilient are now the ones constraining its future.

At the center of this constraint lies a structural imbalance. The financial system is overwhelmingly commercial bank-led, with credit allocation driven largely by collateral rather than by cash flow or enterprise value. While banks, under the supervision of the National Bank of Ethiopia, have played a critical role in mobilizing deposits and extending credit, their risk frameworks are inherently conservative. This makes them ill-suited to finance long-term, high-growth sectors that require patient capital.

The consequence is a widening financing gap. Growth-stage companies, those that have moved beyond survival but require substantial capital to scale, find themselves underserved. It is precisely this gap that capital markets are expected to fill.

The establishment of institutions such as the Ethiopian Capital Market Authority and the Ethiopian Securities Exchange marks a significant milestone in addressing this challenge. These institutions lay the legal and operational foundation for securities issuance, trading, and investor protection. They signal a transition from relationship-based finance to a more transparent, rule-based system.

Yet, there is a risk in assuming that the mere existence of these institutions will automatically translate into a functioning capital market.

Capital markets are not simply physical or digital infrastructures. They are systems of behavior, discipline, and trust.

In Ethiopia, long-standing practices reflect a fundamentally different approach to capital. Share issuances have historically been conducted at par value, often disconnected from the intrinsic or market value of the enterprise. Capital increases have frequently favored shareholders with sufficient liquidity, allowing them to consolidate ownership at advantageous terms. Disclosure practices, while evolving, have not always been treated as a core pillar of investor confidence.

These practices are not anomalies; they are rational responses to an environment where market-based price discovery did not exist.

However, they become problematic in a capital market context.

A functioning capital market requires that prices reflect information. It requires that investors, whether large or small, can rely on disclosures to make informed decisions. It requires that capital is allocated based on expected returns, not on proximity to decision-makers or access to insider networks.

Without these conditions, the market may exist in form but not in substance.

The transition, therefore, is not merely institutional. It is philosophical.

Companies must accept that their valuation will be determined externally, by a market that aggregates diverse views and information. This may challenge entrenched perceptions of value and control. Founders and controlling shareholders may need to dilute ownership to access capital at scale. Governance structures will need to evolve to accommodate independent oversight and minority shareholder protections.

Equally, investors must adapt. The shift from fixed-return instruments to equity participation introduces new risks. It requires a culture of analysis, patience, and risk management that is still nascent in many frontier markets.

Regulators, for their part, face a delicate balancing act. The Ethiopian Capital Market Authority must ensure that the market develops with integrity, without stifling innovation. Overregulation could deter participation, while underregulation could erode trust at an early stage. Striking this balance will be critical in the formative years of the market.

There is also the question of sequencing. Premature listings, weak disclosures, or mispriced securities could undermine confidence before the market has had a chance to mature. International experience suggests that early failures in capital markets can have long-lasting reputational effects.

Despite these risks, the potential upside is substantial.

A well-functioning capital market can transform the economic landscape. It can democratize access to investment opportunities, allowing a broader segment of the population to participate in wealth creation. It can provide companies with access to long-term capital, reducing reliance on short-term bank financing. It can enhance corporate governance, as listed companies are subject to higher standards of transparency and accountability.

Perhaps most importantly, it can improve the efficiency of capital allocation. By directing resources toward the most productive enterprises, capital markets can accelerate economic growth and structural transformation.

For Ethiopia, the development of capital markets is not a question of choice but of necessity. As the economy grows in complexity, the limitations of a bank-dominated system become increasingly apparent. The demand for diverse financing instruments including equity, corporate bonds, and other securities, will only intensify.

The critical question is not whether the market will develop, but how.

If Ethiopia approaches this transition as a purely technical exercise, focused on building institutions and drafting regulations, it risks replicating the form of capital markets without their function. If, however, the transition is accompanied by a deliberate shift in mindset, toward transparency, fair valuation, and disciplined governance, the country has an opportunity to build a market that is both credible and resilient.

The foundations are being laid. Institutions are taking shape. Policies are being formulated.

What remains is the more difficult task: aligning behavior with the principles that make capital markets work.

Without that alignment, the promise of capital markets will remain unfulfilled.

With it, Ethiopia can unlock a new chapter in its economic development defined by growth and efficient and equitable allocation of capital.

Hide and seek economics in Ethiopia’s dead capital and the need for collateral rights for smallholders

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Ethiopia’s land tenure system has evolved from imperial gult and rist privileges to the 1975 nationalization by the Derg and the state ownership model established in the 1995 Constitution. Designed to prevent elite exploitation and ensure equitable access, this rigid framework—rooted in socialist ideology—has rendered the nation’s primary asset as “dead capital.” This situation stifles private investment, agricultural commercialization, and urban development, as smallholders cannot use land as collateral for loans due to investor fears of revocation. Consequently, underground “hide-and-seek” transactions, such as house swaps, have emerged as substitutes for a suppressed land market, allowing individuals to evade taxes while still capturing real value from amenities and locations.

There is an urgent need to examine these historical dynamics that create barriers to growth and to advocate for flexible, hybrid policies that can harness private energy alongside state oversight, fueling Ethiopia’s economic transformation.

Historically, Ethiopia’s imperial land systems align with accounts of limited and regionally varied private ownership. The gult and rist systems dominated, with urban exceptions being marginally transferable. Gult granted nobles administrative, judicial, and tax collection rights over lands, often as imperial rewards. Holders extracted tributes from tenants (gabar or gabbers), who had no ownership and faced exploitation, particularly during southern expansions. Rist, more common in the north, involved communal family-held land that was inheritable within descent groups, providing security against eviction but prohibiting sale.

Private freehold ownership was narrowly available in urban centers like Addis Ababa and some peripheral towns, as well as in southern areas post-conquest where rist and gult evolved into sellable rights by the mid-20th century. However, such ownership was rare, covering under 10% of land, as emperors retained ultimate control over grants and revocations.

Southern peasants suffered the most, as northern settlers became gult holders over conquered lands, turning locals into tribute-paying tenants amid poverty and unrest, which fueled demands for reform in the 1960s. While northern rist offered relative equity, it still tied users to kin-based verification.

The emperor’s control over land can be viewed as state ownership, benefiting only the royal family and nobility rather than the nation. The Derg’s 1975 reforms nationalized all land to eliminate private ownership and tenancy, aiming to benefit peasant tillers directly—a principle enshrined in Article 40 of the 1995 Constitution, which vests land publicly in “the state and the people” for equitable national benefit. However, these reforms failed to grant private property holders the right to sell or use land as collateral. Instead, backdoor deals emerged under the guise of house sales or loan procedures.

Thus, the Derg’s 1975 land nationalization—intended to end “exploitative” private ownership—effectively sidelined private developers and enterprises, impeding Ethiopia’s economic growth potential despite its revolutionary intent. Modern development worldwide relies on private sector involvement, highlighting the flaws of a rigid state monopoly that has largely blocked private participation as legal economic actors.

The Derg-era socialist policies completely prohibit private ownership to prevent elite concentration, with the state administering rural free, inheritable use rights and urban leases—intended as public welfare tools rather than profit centers. This framework remains largely unchanged due to the lingering socialist ideology, which resists private engagement despite economic pressures for minor regional certifications, such as in Amhara and Oromia, which add security but ban sales or mortgages.

The fundamental flaw of a socialist-inspired landownership model—where the state owns all land and restricts private ownership—renders it incompatible with a modern bankloan collateral system, where land is the primary asset backing credit.

In today’s context, private land has emerged as a catalyst for economic growth, transforming from a politically controlled asset into a dynamic economic resource that appreciates in value and significantly contributes to national development. Private ownership and market-driven development enhance land value. For instance, when individuals sell their homes, even in a state-controlled environment, they are not merely selling the house; they are also selling the land, which is often accompanied by attractive infrastructure. Two houses of the same size may differ greatly in value due to disparities in surrounding infrastructure. So, what influences the change in a house’s value?

Moreover, not all development is driven by the government. Private entities build essential infrastructure and services around any given piece of land, including hospitals, clinics, schools, universities, supermarkets, hypermarkets, and local shops, all of which contribute to increasing land value. These private investments create a network of services and amenities that elevate the market value of the land well beyond the basic public utilities—such as water, electricity, and roads—that the government typically provides.

However, attracting private investors for large-scale infrastructure projects, such as electricity, water, and road construction, remains a challenge. These projects require substantial investment and take a long time to yield returns, representing high-risk areas for investors, especially in politically unstable sub-Saharan countries. In such contexts, public-private partnerships (PPPs) can be a viable option to mitigate risks for private investors.

Many economists, development practitioners, and political figures believe that Ethiopia’s current land tenure system, in which land is constitutionally owned by the state and private ownership is not permitted, poses structural barriers to rapid economic transformation. Treating land as a politically locked asset under state control not only deters significant private investment but also prevents the generation of wealth that could be unlocked through market-driven economic mechanisms, as this approach is rooted in a socialist-oriented policy.

Ethiopia is currently exploring a shift towards public-private partnerships (PPPs) and partial privatization of state monopolies in sectors like telecommunications and banking to attract private capital for large-scale national development. If executed thoughtfully, this strategy could encourage private investors to engage in major infrastructure and service projects critical for long-term growth. The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, with over 70 years of experience, has begun to adapt by learning from the rapid growth of private banks and is opening competitive branches in various locations. This growth in the banking sector illustrates the dynamism necessary to facilitate private sector participation.

The 1995 Ethiopian Constitution, drafted by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), establishes state ownership of land. Article 40 states that “land is a common property of the Nations, Nationalities and Peoples of Ethiopia and shall not be subject to sale or exchange.” While this approach has merits, such as preventing the emergence of a land ruling class that could exploit the peasantry, it also ensures that all citizens have access to land for housing and farming, both in rural and urban areas. Additionally, it allows the state to allocate land for large-scale investments, such as commercial agriculture, industry, and infrastructure, without the complications associated with private land markets.

Holding private ownership “out of the playfield” hinders growth momentum. This supports the argument that property rights are essential for modern capitalist development. Currently, land cannot be used as collateral for bank loans. For millions of smallholder farmers and urban dwellers, this means their primary asset becomes “dead capital.” They are unable to leverage this asset to access credit for purchasing improved seeds or machinery, which could modernize their labor-intensive farming methods, and to start businesses.

Ethiopia’s state-controlled land system significantly obstructs the transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture in rural areas. Additionally, investor concerns about the potential revocation of land rights perpetuate socialist legacies. While investors can secure long-term leases (often 40 to 99 years), the lack of full ownership rights for smallholders deters long-term, capital-intensive improvements. Farmers’ inability to use their land as collateral prevents them from obtaining loans for seeds, machinery, or irrigation necessary for commercialization, resulting in 80% of holdings under 2 hectares producing subsistence yields far below their potential. Investors remain cautious, fearing that land use rights could be revoked or reallocated by the state, which leads to a preference for short-term extraction over sustainable, long-term development. This hesitation is often attributed to the lingering effects of socialist policies.

One potential solution is to implement a system of transferable land rights that grants collateral rights. This would enable farmers to use their land as collateral, increasing access to credit and facilitating investment in productivity-enhancing technologies. Additionally, introducing a hybrid model that combines state ownership with long-term, renewable private agreements could provide investors with greater security, encouraging capital-intensive investments while maintaining state oversight.

Governments could also establish microfinance programs specifically designed for small-scale farmers, offering accessible credit options. Furthermore, providing training and resources on sustainable farming practices and market access would empower farmers to boost their productivity and income. Implementing subsidies for essential inputs like seeds and fertilizers could further support their transition to more commercialized agriculture.

The influence of socialist legacies on agricultural policies maintains state control over land, limiting individual ownership and stifling entrepreneurial initiatives. This centralized approach discourages private investment and innovation, as farmers and investors are apprehensive about the government’s potential to reallocate resources without adequate compensation. Consequently, these policies result in a lack of incentives for farmers to enhance productivity, ultimately hindering the agricultural sector’s growth and modernization.

Ethiopia’s land tenure system, rooted in state ownership since the 1975 revolution, restricts private investment in agriculture by limiting farmers’ ability to use land as collateral for loans or transfer it freely. Granting full private ownership could unlock access to credit, enabling investments in improved seeds, irrigation, and machinery, thereby increasing yields and facilitating the shift from subsistence to commercial production. This reform could also attract domestic and foreign investors, encouraging the consolidation of small plots into viable commercial farms and driving broader economic growth. The key to development lies not in holding land for subsistence farming but in creating mechanisms for adding value to it, alongside the ability to secure loans for transformation. If the government can seek loans from international organizations for significant infrastructure improvements, why shouldn’t individuals have the same opportunity to enhance their sectors?

Land prices vary significantly by location, even for identical houses on equivalent plots sold by the government and the private sector. This discrepancy arises because market forces often override formal rules in practice. Buyers are willing to pay premiums for desirable areas based on perceived value stemming from accessibility, amenities, and future potential, creating de facto differentials despite state ownership.

Individuals who have the opportunity to win a three-bedroom condominium burdened with debt often sell their houses to those willing to settle for new homes in less costly areas with one or two bedrooms, thereby freeing themselves from loans. However, this situation resembles a hide-and-seek game, where many are playing behind the scenes. To address this, a policy shift in our land and housing framework is essential to eliminate this game.

Policies should be flexible rather than rigid, adapting to the evolving economic market and environmental conditions. Homeowners should not be compelled to play hide-and-seek with the government to exchange the true value of their land. Continuous updates to policies are necessary to create benefit packages that allow individuals and private sectors to operate as responsible citizens, rather than being constrained by outdated rules.

A flexible land policy is crucial to unlock the value-added potential trapped in house-exchange transactions. Crafting such a policy can help avoid the “hide and seek” game surrounding land exchanges, particularly when there are opportunities for value addition in the land market. When formal land markets are obstructed, value-seeking behavior does not vanish; it simply shifts underground or into alternative transactions (such as “house exchanges”) that act as proxies for capturing land value. This “hide-and-seek” dynamic is a direct result of rigid, socialist-inspired tenure systems that push people to evade taxes.

The participants in this scenario include not only private sectors but also many government officials who may exploit their power for personal gain. Thus, a dynamic policy shift could streamline processes and mitigate the negative impact of rigid rules that stifle investment and growth.

Ethiopia’s land tenure system exemplifies how well-intentioned rigidity can lead to adverse outcomes. Originating from the 1975 Derg nationalization and continued under the 1995 Constitution’s state-ownership model (Article 40), this framework aimed to prevent elite exploitation and ensure equitable access. In practice, however, it has rendered the nation’s most vital asset—land—into “dead capital.” Smallholders are unable to use land as collateral for loans; investors still fear arbitrary revocations, and urban residents, unable to legally transfer land value, resort to underground “house swaps” that act as proxies for a suppressed market, evade taxes, and capture real value through back channels. We cannot overlook this pressing need; it is essential to reevaluate policies for better options.

Name: Zekre Henock

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2. Education: BA in Business Administration

3. Company Name: Nexa Business Group PLC

4. Title: Co-Founder

5. Founded in: 2010

6.What it does: Business Development & Growth Strategy, Sales & Marketing Execution, CRM & Internal System Development

7 HQ: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

8 Start-up Capital: 500,000 birr

9. Current Capital: 20,000,000 birr

10. number of employees; 21

11. Reason for Starting the Business: To bridge the gap between business potential and execution

12. Biggest Perk of Ownership: Optimizing businesses with real market impact

13. Biggest strength: Strategic thinking combined with execution building sustainable business models and driving growth

14.Biggest Challenge: Limited market awareness of structured business systems

15. Plan: Launch and scale proprietary digital platforms

16. First Career: Unilever Ethiopia

17. Most Interested in Meeting: High-level investors, government stakeholders, and global business leaders

18. Most Admired Person: Nelson Mandela

19. Stress Reducer: Strategic thinking and building new opportunities

20. Favorite Book: The Secret

21. Favorite Pastime: Exploring business ideas and growth opportunities

22. Favorite Destination: UAE and China

23. Favorite automobile ; None

Ballots over Bullets: Why Ideas Matter in Ethiopia’s Democratic Journey

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At its heart, the story of modern civilization is a story about the triumph of ideas over force. From the public debates of ancient Athens to today’s televised political discussions, what defines a strong democracy is not simply the act of voting, but the quality of the conversation that comes before it. A democracy matures not when people cast ballots, but when they do so after thoughtful debate and informed reflection.

This is what scholars describe as deliberative democracy—a system where decisions are shaped through discussion, reasoning, and the exchange of ideas. Around the world, the strength of a democracy often depends on whether politics is driven by ideas or by identity, emotion, and power struggles.

In this sense, the “primacy of ideas” (Ye’hassab Yebelayinet) becomes the foundation of stability. In well-established democracies, political parties function as platforms for policy, not as vehicles for personality or identity. They compete by presenting different visions for society, not by mobilizing division. Countries that have embraced this approach—such as post-war Germany or South Korea—have shown that when ideas lead politics, economic stability and social cohesion tend to follow.

For Ethiopia, now navigating the complexities of its 7th General Election, this shift toward idea-driven politics marks an important and hopeful turning point.

From Force to Dialogue: A Changing Political Culture

Ethiopia’s political past has often been shaped by what many describe as a “zero-sum” mindset—where political competition was seen as a struggle in which one side must win and the other must lose completely. Too often, political expression was associated with confrontation rather than conversation.

Today, however, there are signs of change. The ongoing debates among political parties suggest a gradual move from the “politics of the gun” to the “politics of the mind.” For the first time in recent memory, political actors are not only trying to mobilize support, but also to persuade citizens through ideas, policies, and reasoning.

Institutions such as the National Election Board of Ethiopia are no longer treated simply as formal structures, but as platforms where arguments must be tested and defended. This shift matters deeply. Democracy is not built through institutions alone—it grows through habits: the habit of listening, questioning, and reasoning together.

By placing ideas at the center of political competition, Ethiopia is slowly moving away from a culture of intimidation toward a culture of persuasion.

Why Political Debate Matters: Five Key Gains

The growing culture of debate in Ethiopia is not just symbolic—it has practical and long-term benefits for democratic development.

1. Empowering Citizens to Make Informed Choices

When political parties clearly explain their policies-whether on the economy, healthcare, or agriculture-citizens are better equipped to make meaningful choices. Voting becomes less about emotion or identity and more about evaluating real proposals. In this way, citizens move from being passive participants to active decision-makers.

2. Shifting from Confrontation to Conversation

Public debate helps normalize disagreement. It sends a powerful message: conflict is part of politics, but it should be handled through dialogue, not violence. When leaders defend their ideas in public forums, it reinforces the principle that authority comes from reasoning, not force.

3. Strengthening Accountability

Debates create a public record of promises. When parties commit to specific policies, those commitments can later be measured and questioned. This strengthens accountability, allowing citizens, media, and civil society to track whether leaders deliver on what they promised.

4. Reducing the Risk of Conflict

Open discussion provides an outlet for grievances. When people feel heard and represented, tensions are less likely to escalate into violence. In this way, the exchange of ideas acts as a safety valve- helping maintain social peace during politically sensitive periods.

5. Inspiring the Next Generation

With a large youth population, Ethiopia stands to benefit greatly from a culture of debate. When young people see leaders engage through ideas rather than confrontation, it shapes how they understand politics. It encourages them to think critically, participate constructively, and see themselves as future leaders.

Ideas as the Foundation of Economic Stability

The importance of ideas goes beyond politics—it also affects economic development. Ethiopia’s ambitions, including becoming a regional energy hub and completing major projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), depend on stable and predictable governance.

Investors look not only at resources, but also at how decisions are made. A country that encourages open debate and clear policy direction is better positioned to respond to economic challenges. Discussions around debt, inflation, and industrial growth are not just political—they are essential to building confidence in the country’s future.

In this sense, ideas are not abstract-they are part of the country’s “intellectual infrastructure.”

Building a Lasting Culture of Ideas

For Ethiopia to sustain this progress, the current momentum must continue beyond election cycles. Several steps can help strengthen this culture:

  • Make debates a regular practice: Public policy discussions should not be limited to elections. Establishing independent platforms for ongoing debates can keep citizens engaged year-round.
  • Promote media literacy: Education systems should help citizens, especially young people, critically evaluate political messages and distinguish between rhetoric and substance.
  • Encourage local-level dialogue: Democracy should not exist only at the national level. Debates at woreda and kebele levels can make governance more relevant to everyday life.
  • Protect diverse voices: A healthy democracy depends on the freedom to disagree. Safeguarding minority opinions ensures that new and better ideas can emerge.

A Democracy Still in the Making

The shift from a culture of force to a culture of ideas is never easy. It requires patience, trust, and a willingness to change long-standing habits. Yet the progress seen during Ethiopia’s 7th General Election suggests that the country is moving in a promising direction.

Democracy is not a finished product; it is an ongoing process. It must be nurtured, challenged, and renewed over time.

By placing ideas at the center of political life, Ethiopia is laying a foundation that is stronger than any physical structure. It is building a system rooted in thought, dialogue, and shared understanding.

In the end, the true strength of a democracy lies not in the number of ballots cast, but in the quality of the ideas behind them. And when ideas lead, the future becomes not only more stable, but more hopeful—for everyone.