In Ethiopia’s highlands, volcanic soils and favourable temperate conditions support the production of premium strawberries, recognized as “Red Gold” alongside blueberries as “Blue Gold.” This crop has consistently delivered exceptional foreign exchange earnings per unit of land and capital deployed. Despite its superior economic performance, nutritional profile, and alignment with global demand for high-margin, sustainable produce, strawberries remain outside the country’s flagship agricultural development programs. This article presents a rigorous economic analysis of the opportunity costs of this exclusion and advocates for data-driven prioritization. Drawing on two decades of experience in Ethiopia’s horticultural export sector, the assessment integrates trade statistics, productivity metrics, and strategic benchmarking to demonstrate why strawberries warrant inclusion alongside—or ahead of—volume-oriented staples in national resource allocation

Empirical data underscore strawberries’ outsized contribution to export revenues. Approximately 521 hectares under commercial cultivation generated roughly USD 25 million in export earnings over the past five years. By contrast, the national avocado program, spanning approximately 31,000 hectares, yielded only USD 7.41 million in the same period. This translates to dramatically higher returns per hectare for strawberries—often orders of magnitude greater—highlighting superior capital productivity and land-use efficiency in a resource-constrained economy.

Historical performance (2013–2017) further validates this pattern: strawberries represented just 3.8% of fruit export volume (7,454 tons out of 202,130 tons) yet accounted for nearly 30% of fruit export revenues (USD 25.15 million). The unit value of approximately USD 3,375 per ton significantly exceeded benchmarks for bananas (USD 248/ton), avocados (USD 405/ton), and the overall fruit category average (USD 438/ton), delivering 7–8 times higher revenue per ton. Recent data reinforces the trend: in 2022, fresh strawberry exports exceeded 1.7 million kg, generating USD 5.34 million, primarily to premium Gulf markets. In 2023, the “Other fresh fruit” category—dominated by strawberries—contributed USD 5.08 million. These metrics demonstrate an optimized value-to-volume ratio that reduces exposure to bulk logistics constraints and airfreight capacity limitations while maximizing foreign exchange generation.

Avocado initiatives emphasize scale and domestic processing potential through a 15-year national program. However, in an environment of scarce arable land, foreign currency, and infrastructure, policymakers must apply rigorous marginal efficiency analysis. Prioritizing lower unit-value crops at the expense of high-intensity forex generators warrants transparent justification through formal cost-benefit and opportunity-cost frameworks.

Strawberries address Ethiopia’s twin challenges of malnutrition and rising non-communicable diseases more effectively than many alternatives. Per equivalent serving, they provide 568% more Vitamin C than avocados, lower sugar content, substantially reduced saturated fat, and favourable caloric density (32 kcal/100g). Their rich anthocyanin profile supports cardiovascular health and anti-inflammatory benefits, complementing avocados’ fiber and fat contributions. A small 1/8-acre plot can yield 30–50 kg weekly within 90 days, with a productive lifespan of 2–3 years, enabling rapid cash flow and household nutritional security for smallholders. This short production cycle and labour-intensive harvesting and packing phases also generate high employment elasticity, particularly for women.

Ethiopia’s highlands, including clusters around Holeta and Ejera, offer optimal conditions—cool nights, moderate daytime temperatures, and altitude—that enhance flavor, Brix levels (>8), and market appeal. The sector’s origins in former rose flower operations provide transferable expertise in protected cultivation, post-harvest management, and export logistics. The recent Phytophthora outbreak at Zequala Horti PLC prompted a successful collaboration with Dutch expertise, resulting in a high-tech raised-gutter hydroponic demonstration greenhouse. This initiative exemplifies precision agriculture that conserves water, mitigates disease risk, and improves quality—positioning Ethiopia for leapfrog advancement over open-field systems prevalent in neighboring countries.

Ethiopia leads East Africa in commercial strawberry production (516–600 hectares), export revenues, and unit values approaching USD 3,000+/ton. Kenya produces around 533 metric tons annually with modest export earnings, while Uganda’s sector remains negligible. Proven varieties such as Rotmi, Fragaria Soraya, Dorina, Daniel, Florida Brilliance, Monterey, and Rowena deliver yields of 30–43 tons per hectare with strong adaptability and disease resistance. Established air connectivity enables 24-hour delivery to Europe, while proximity to the Middle East optimizes costs. The Cool Port Addis at Modjo supports sea freight for IQF and processed products, enhancing flexibility and sustainability.

Demand extends beyond the Gulf to Western Europe (UK, Netherlands, France, Belgium), where Ethiopian strawberries serve food service and premium retail channels. Strategic branding as “Ethiopian Highland Strawberries,” combined with GLOBALG.A.P. and other certifications, alongside portfolio expansion into blueberries and raspberries, can capture higher margins in a growing global berries market driven by health trends.

National flagship programs for wheat, avocado, sorghum, and enset allocate significant resources for R&D, inputs, subsidies, and infrastructure based on volume and food security objectives. Strawberries’ exclusion from these mechanisms, despite superior forex intensity, rapid ROI, technological sophistication, employment generation, and nutritional impact, raises critical questions about selection criteria. Effective economic governance requires transparent, multi-criteria decision frameworks incorporating: Foreign exchange yield per hectare and per unit of scarce resources, Net present value and internal rate of return, Employment and income multipliers, Nutritional cost-effectiveness, Climate resilience and risk-adjusted returns. Regular performance audits against regional and global benchmarks would strengthen accountability and optimize resource allocation.

To realize this potential, the following actions are proposed: Incorporate strawberries as a dedicated component within the next 10-Year National Agricultural Development Plan, with ring-fenced funding and clear KPIs, Launch subsidized nucleus-outgrower schemes linking established commercial producers (e.g., Metrolax Flower, Tal Flower, Euro Flora, Zequala Horti, Bahir Dar Fresh Fruits PLC) with cooperatives to scale quality-compliant production, Accelerate adoption of hydroponics, precision fertigation, and resilient varieties through public-private partnerships, Invest in premium branding, certifications, and value-added processing (IQF, juices, powders) to extend shelf life and margins, Complete cold-chain infrastructure development, leveraging Cool Port Addis for dual air-sea competitiveness, Institutionalize multi-criteria prioritization protocols with independent economic evaluations.

These measures would enhance FDI attraction, as demonstrated by recent commitments such as those from African Farming Industries, and establish Ethiopia as East Africa’s premier high-value horticultural exporter.

To conclude Strawberries, represent a high-return, low-land-footprint opportunity that aligns tightly with Ethiopia’s goals of foreign reserve accumulation, technological upgrading, rural economic empowerment, and nutritional improvement. In a competitive global marketplace, delay carries measurable opportunity costs. By integrating “Red Gold” into flagship frameworks through evidence-based policy adjustments, Ethiopia can capture greater value from its comparative advantages, strengthen economic resilience, and build a world-class horticultural sector. The data are compelling; the strategic rationale is clear. Visionary leadership and decisive execution are now required.

Mekonnen Solomon is agricultural economist and Former Director in Ministry of Agriculture and can be reached via ehdaplan@gmail.com

Ethiopia’s political landscape has long been marked by numerous polarized dynamics, including Left vs. Right, Progressive vs. Conservative, Urban vs. Rural, Ethnic vs. Nationalist, and Christian vs. Muslim. The ideological, emotional, and social distance between these opposing poles is influenced by various factors, including leadership interests and the passage of time.

The intensity of political polarization fluctuates over time, but these divisions have left a lasting impact on Ethiopian political history. Rather than enriching the political spectrum, they often create a binary “us vs. them” mentality. Individuals may find themselves labeled as supporters of one faction without their knowledge or consent, complicating efforts to identify a middle ground. People may value certain perspectives from one group while dismissing others, making it challenging to reach consensus.

Those who strive to remain “neutral” or “independent” are frequently ignored or actively marginalized by both sides. Consequently, third-party neutralists or centrist movements face significant challenges in a highly polarized environment, where individuals can easily become victims of hostility from either faction. This polarization also affects the media landscape, where information is charged with conflicting narratives.

Moderate voices attempting to reduce tension and bridge divides are often squeezed out by manufactured divisions. They are criticized and labeled as supporters of outdated, conservative ideologies with weak political substance. Instead of fostering a valuable spectrum of political alternatives, polarization creates a rigid binary reality that undermines national sovereignty, compelling individuals to choose sides between opposing factions.

The deep, structural divisions based on ethnicity, religion, and geography are entrenched and unlikely to disappear. However, exploiting these realities for partisan gain poses a significant threat to political stability. Exaggerated divisions, misleading media narratives, and leader-driven culture wars can amplify differences, even when underlying structural variances are minimal. The danger arises when a temporary polarization solidifies into a perceived permanent divide.

To reduce polarization, it is essential to create a common political space. This can be achieved through cross-cutting alliances and coalitions that prioritize shared values over minor differences, de-radicalizing variations in opinion. Shifting from winner-takes-all elections to proportional representation will promote merit-based leadership allocation and transform the political landscape.

A political system without any polarization (complete consensus) can lead to totalitarianism, which may create a facade of peace. Conversely, extreme polarization can spark civil unrest. The art of politics, akin to nurturing a successful marriage or resilient startup, lies in managing polarization—keeping it strong enough to stimulate energy and debate while ensuring it doesn’t tear the system apart. The aim should not be to eliminate opposition but to maintain a manageable distance between opposing groups, facilitating dialogue.

Thus far, polarized politics have shaped Ethiopia’s past and present in divergent ways. It is time to identify common issues that can help neutralize differences, fostering collaboration and finding middle ground for peaceful coexistence. After all, we share one country, and it is vital to strengthen our shared values and preserve them, paving the way for sustainable development that leaves a lasting legacy for future generations, much like the historical sites of Axum, Lalibela, and Fasil, as well as initiatives like the GERD and Corridor Development, while safeguarding our sovereignty.

It is time to shift from skepticism to a state of cooperative ownership and shared responsibility. When individuals in different regions strive together or independently to improve their surroundings, remarkable change follows. Corridor development demonstrates that we can create peaceful spaces where life flourishes and happiness thrives. A cooperative approach reduces doubt and mistrust, which often stem from unnecessary political polarization and division. In doing so, we can build a legacy that the next generation will cherish with joy.

Ethiopia, as Africa’s second-most populous nation and a historic center of civilization, stands at a crossroads. The ethnic federalist structure—intended to respect diversity—has, in practice, often deepened divisions, fueled political instability, and hindered the unified, agile governance necessary to harness resources alongside emerging technologies like artificial intelligence.

Ethiopia can no longer afford ethnic polarization and mutual mistrust while the world rapidly advances through AI and cutting-edge technology. Promoting unity and depolarizing politics is not only a moral imperative but also a practical necessity for competing globally in this new technological landscape.

AI and advanced technologies require scale and trust. Digital infrastructure ecosystems and innovation demand large, collaborative markets, shared standards, and long-term investment. Ethnic polarization fragments talent pools, creates regulatory challenges, and diverts resources from research and development towards conflict management.

Global competition moves quickly. Ethiopia must leapfrog development while avoiding internal tensions. We cannot afford to fall further behind due to ethnic politics. Today, we stand at a pivotal moment where we must transition from skepticism regarding ethnic challenges to a place of cooperative ownership and shared responsibility.

Our ethnic identities should not be a source of conflict but rather a vibrant addition to a diverse social fabric. The call for an attitude shift—whether working collaboratively or individually—towards actively improving our communities, environment, and quality of life is essential for enhancing education, healthcare, and agricultural efficiency in the nation.

Let us commit to real, timely transformations for a better future. When peace becomes the norm, life truly flourishes, allowing us to overcome external challenges and enjoy the benefits of life together, bridging the divide from ethnic fragmentation to shared prosperity.

The shift from skepticism to cooperative ownership, from polarization to shared responsibility, is not merely aspirational; it is the foundation for Ethiopia’s next chapter. We must capitalize on ethnic identity as a source of cultural richness rather than political division. Diversity can serve as a competitive advantage for Ethiopia in a global economy that values innovation, creativity, and social cohesion.

We have many valuable institutions in critical sectors such as education, healthcare, digital infrastructure, and AI development that can serve both Ethiopia and the world. We can multiply these benefits to reach those in need.

Let us choose unity. Let us choose peace. Let us choose a future where Ethiopia leads Africa into the age of AI and innovation—not by abandoning our diversity, but by embracing it as our greatest strength. We should not dwell on past grievances; the past is behind us. Instead, let us focus on today’s realities with urgency. We can learn from our experiences to create a better future. Let’s cast aside the divisive forces of ethnic conflict, allowing them to fade away without testing our unity again.

Now is the time for unity. When each person and region commits to this cooperative vision, the political challenges will heal, and we will move from a state of political captivity to a new path that neutralizes polarization in Ethiopia.