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Independence concerns over private sector exclusion from new insurance board

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Ethiopia’s insurance sector, which has long operated under the supervisory shadow of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), is on the verge of a historic structural shift. The recently unveiled draft “Insurance Proclamation” mandates the establishment of the Ethiopian Insurance Regulatory Authority (EIRA), a move hailed by industry experts as a significant “leap forward.”

While professionals welcome the transition to an independent regulator, they are expressing growing concern over the board composition outlined in the draft. Experts argue that the current structure focuses exclusively on government leadership, lacking private sector representation and deep technical expertise, which could hinder the ability to navigate complex international financial markets.

This draft law represents the most substantial structural change in the sector in four decades. Once ratified, the new authority is expected to possess 100% operational autonomy, reporting directly to the Ministry of Finance. This step is viewed as a “historic milestone” and a vital infrastructural preparation before the sector opens to foreign competition.

For years, Experts have argued that keeping insurance regulation under the NBE—which primarily focuses on banking and monetary policy—has stifled growth. This has contributed to the sector’s contribution to Ethiopia’s GDP remaining below 1%. While the establishment of the EIRA is the draft’s centerpiece, the board’s proposed makeup remains a point of contention.

According to the proposed framework, the board will consist of seven members led by ex-officio government officials. These include the Governor of the National Bank, a representative from the Ministry of Trade & Regional Integration, the Commissioner of the Authority, and the Director-General of the Ethiopian Capital Markets Authority.

The remaining seats are slated for independent members appointed directly by the Prime Minister.

Industry veteran Asseged Gebremedhin, an insurance broker and consultant, told Capital “This is where the question of true independence arises. In countries like Kenya, India, or the UK, the board usually includes representatives from insurance institutions or professional associations.

By excluding the private sector, we risk creating a regulator that is technically competent but disconnected from market dynamics.”

Asseged noted that neighboring Kenya utilizes an 11-member board to ensure a broader knowledge base. He argues that the appointment of “independent” members should be based on transparent, fair, and rigorous criteria of integrity and expertise, rather than direct political appointments, ensuring a “due process” seen in more developed markets.

For decades, most Ethiopian insurers have operated as “composite” companies, handling both life and general insurance. Currently, 13 of the 19 insurance companies in Ethiopia operate this way. The new draft, however, mandates specialization, requiring companies to separate their life insurance wings into independent sister companies.

The rationale is clear: the life insurance sector has been largely neglected. Industry players believe specialization will drive growth, though they caution that the transition must be managed to avoid administrative burdens.

The draft’s focus on Inclusive Insurance has garnered positive feedback. Currently, insurance services are heavily concentrated in Addis Ababa. The new proclamation includes a framework for “unbanked and unserved” communities, aiming to protect the crops of farmers, the livestock of pastoralists, and the livelihoods of micro-entrepreneurs.

This proclamation is a key component of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s “Homegrown Economic Reform.” Following the liberalization of the banking sector, the opening of the insurance sector is seen as inevitable. The proclamation serves as a “get ready” signal from the government to domestic companies.

Asseged recalled the 2012 World Economic Forum in Addis Ababa, where former PM Meles Zenawi stated Ethiopia lacked the “regulatory capacity” and “technological readiness” for international competition. Fourteen years later, the current administration is signaling that the time is now. The message to local firms is clear: modernize, merge, or face the consequences.

The draft proclamation includes broad reforms to modernize the sector, strengthen financial stability, and align Ethiopia with international standards. It provides a clear legal path for foreign insurers to enter the market through locally incorporated subsidiaries. It also facilitates wider ties with international reinsurers to increase underwriting capacity and distribute risk effectively.

Furthermore, the law introduces a “Regulatory Sandbox” for the digital economy, allowing companies to test innovative FinTech-led insurance products in a controlled environment. It also permits banks and microfinance institutions to sell insurance through Bancassurance and officially implements index-based insurance, which is critical for the agricultural sector.

To ensure rapid expansion does not compromise safety, the draft mandates that all insurers hire external actuaries and establishes a “Resolution Authority.” This body will have the power to intervene in insurance companies facing insolvency to protect the interests of the public and policyholders.

Africa’s growth at risk due to $1.2 trillion debt burden, ECA chief warns

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The promising economic recovery seen across Africa is threatened by a daunting “wall of debt” that could reverse decades of developmental progress, warns the Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA). As of May 2026, the continent’s total external debt has surged to $1.2 trillion, representing not just a financial liability but a critical barrier to Africa’s future.

In many countries, the debt burden has surpassed sustainable levels, with over 25% of total government revenue allocated to interest and principal payments. This diversion strips essential funds from services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

Claver Gatete, UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the ECA, highlighted that this escalating crisis has put 16 African nations at high risk of debt distress, with 7 already in full-blown crises. Data shows that financial pressures are reaching unprecedented heights; in 2026 alone, Africa is expected to make debt payments exceeding $90 billion.

This overwhelming debt is creating a cycle that discourages new investments, stifles private sector growth, and diminishes the fiscal capacity of governments, leaving them unable to shield their citizens from global economic volatility or climate emergencies. Speaking on May 6, 2026, at the opening of the Second Africa Sovereign Investors Forum in Addis Ababa, Gatete emphasized that while Africa’s macroeconomic foundation remains resilient—with growth projected at 3.9% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026—the $1.2 trillion debt overhang jeopardizes this progress.

Financial experts caution that without swift intervention and structural reforms in Africa’s access to international capital, the continent’s hard-won developmental achievements could fade, turning a decade of promise into a “lost decade” for millions. Addressing the forum under the theme “Enhancing Fiscal Capacity and Ensuring Debt Sustainability,” Gatete urged global leaders to recognize the disproportionate and “exaggerated cost of capital” shouldered by African nations, often termed the “Africa Premium.”

Despite housing twelve of the world’s fastest-growing economies, Africa confronts the highest interest rates globally. ECA research reveals that at least 16 African countries face debt servicing costs that far exceed their economic capabilities.

This “systemic mispricing” has led to a cumulative loss exceeding $74 billion—funds that could have addressed significant infrastructure deficits. “Are we accurately measuring risk, or are we systematically mispricing Africa?” Gatete questioned, noting that currently, only Mauritius and Morocco hold investment-grade credit ratings, while 19 countries have no ratings at all. This lack of transparent data allows global markets to label African debt as “high risk” by default, despite substantial reform efforts.

In response, the ECA is working toward establishing an African Credit Rating Agency. This institution aims to deliver transparent, forward-looking, and data-driven assessments that reflect the continent’s economic realities. By providing alternative narratives to traditional international rating agencies, the ECA seeks to lower risk costs and secure affordable, long-term financing for development.

The forum, organized by the ECA in collaboration with FSD Africa, also outlined a strategic roadmap for African debt managers. This includes integrating climate and development goals into debt strategies to access specialized “green” capital and equipping Debt Management Offices (DMOs) with improved analytical tools to oversee debt portfolios.

Additionally, State Minister of Finance Semereta Sewasew noted during the forum that Ethiopia has implemented comprehensive reforms, including transitioning to a market-led foreign exchange system. These efforts enabled Ethiopia to secure over $3.5 billion in debt relief under the G20 Common Framework, demonstrating that the “credibility of policy frameworks” is as crucial as the size of the debt itself. As Ethiopia prepares to represent the continent by hosting COP32, the connection between finance and climate resilience has reached a critical juncture. Gatete stressed that “climate goals require massive amounts of financing,” which remains nearly unattainable under the current inequitable international financial system.

New negotiations concluded to strengthen emergency crisis responses

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The Ethiopian government has announced that it has finalized negotiations for a $600 million Crisis Response fund aimed at addressing the economic pressures resulting from rising instability in the Middle East and the corresponding spike in global fuel prices. This support, revealed after high-level discussions with international financial institutions in the United States, comes at a crucial moment as Ethiopia grapples with challenges linked to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. This funding is part of a broader multi-billion dollar cooperation strategy with the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and development partners such as Italy, France, and Germany.

The Ministry of Finance has indicated that the support is specifically designed to stabilize the domestic market, ensure a reliable fuel supply, and mitigate inflation that could arise from soaring global oil prices.

A key element of the government’s economic strategy is the management of fuel subsidies. While the government initially planned to phase out general fuel subsidies prior to implementing macroeconomic reforms, the recent liberalization of the foreign exchange rate (allowing it to be market-driven) has introduced new challenges, significantly increasing fuel prices when expressed in Birr.

The government has emphasized that transferring the full burden of global price increases and exchange rate fluctuations onto the public would lead to unsustainable inflation. Currently, the accumulated subsidy amount exceeds 300 billion Birr.

“Despite facing substantial financial pressure, the government has maintained the subsidy with a strong sense of responsibility, rather than passing the entire price increase onto the public,” stated Minister of Finance Ahmed Shide.

The Minister provided this update on May 4, 2026, while presenting the institution’s nine-month performance report to the Standing Committee on Planning, Budget, and Finance. During the session, it was stressed that shifting the entire global price hike to the public would trigger severe inflation. As a result, the government continues to allocate 100 billion Birr annually for fuel subsidies to protect low-income communities and prevent disruptions in industry.

The Minister explained that additional subsidies are being implemented due to the ongoing global conflicts. He noted that the government is reforming the procurement system and mobilizing support from development partners to successfully conclude negotiations for crisis-related responses, which will enable further reforms once the funds are secured.

The crisis in the Middle East had previously interrupted the process of sourcing fuel entirely from Kuwait, necessitating urgent and diversified procurement strategies. Although this initially resulted in a 50% reduction in diesel supply, the flow of fuel transported from Djibouti has now returned to previous levels, restoring the diesel supply to 9 million liters per day.

This newly secured $600 million Crisis Response support is part of a larger $1.6 billion package known as “DPO3,” funded by the World Bank and the Italian government.

According to the Ministry of Finance’s nine-month report on external resource flows, $2 billion has been disbursed thus far, with the World Bank contributing 73.3% of that total. Ahmed indicated that the nature of support from development partners has shifted from project-based aid to direct budget support and Balance of Payments (BoP) assistance. This transition provides the government with the financial capacity to implement fuel sector reforms gradually rather than abruptly.

In terms of total disbursements, the government aims to secure $4.1 billion for the year, having received $2 billion in the first nine months. With the implementation of the results from recent successful negotiations through June, the flow of foreign currency is expected to increase significantly, enhancing the capacity to support ongoing fuel reforms.

Why Ethiopia and Sudan must pull back from the brink

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The escalating tension between Ethiopia and Sudan should alarm everyone in the Horn of Africa. Both sides must step back before a dangerous dispute becomes a full-blown war that would devastate civilians, destabilize neighboring states, and push an already fragile region closer to chaos.

What is unfolding now is more than a bilateral quarrel. Recent accusations, troop movements, and cross-border suspicion are reviving some of the same fault lines that have repeatedly turned the Ethiopia-Sudan relationship into a pressure point for the wider region. When two states with long borders, internal vulnerabilities, and overlapping security concerns begin speaking the language of retaliation, the consequences rarely stop at the frontier.

Sudan’s army has accused Ethiopia of allowing drone activity from its territory, while Ethiopia has rejected the allegations and pointed to Sudan’s links with armed actors hostile to Addis Ababa. Both governments are operating under severe internal strain. Sudan is still trapped in a brutal civil war, while Ethiopia is dealing with its own political and security fragilities, including tensions in the north and other parts of the country. That is exactly why escalation would be reckless. Neither side has anything to gain from turning a dangerous atmosphere into direct confrontation.

The hardest truth is that war would not remain limited to the two capitals. It would almost certainly spread instability across the Horn of Africa, a region already burdened by displacement, food insecurity, armed conflict, and diplomatic mistrust. Border communities would be the first to pay the price, but the damage would not end there. Trade routes, refugee flows, humanitarian access, and regional cooperation would all be disrupted, creating a chain reaction that could outlast any battlefield gains.

There is also a humanitarian dimension that cannot be ignored. Sudan’s war has already driven massive suffering inside the country, and Ethiopia is still recovering from its own recent conflicts. A new conflict between the two would only multiply the number of displaced people, overwhelm weak health systems, and make aid delivery even harder. In the borderlands, civilians would be trapped between suspicion and insecurity, while communities that depend on cross-border movement for survival would lose access to markets, services, and livelihoods.

This is why both governments should lower the temperature immediately. Public accusations, military signaling, and retaliatory rhetoric may play well in moments of domestic pressure, but they are a poor substitute for statecraft. Leaders in Addis Ababa and Port Sudan need to understand that every threatening statement raises the risk of miscalculation. In a region where armed groups, external backers, and proxy dynamics already complicate the picture, even a small mistake could trigger a much wider crisis.

The African Union and regional actors should not wait until a shooting war begins before speaking loudly. They should press both governments to restart direct communication, use established diplomatic channels, and avoid any military moves near the border that could be interpreted as preparation for conflict. Outside powers should also resist the temptation to widen the crisis by feeding rival factions or treating the Horn as another arena for geopolitical competition.

It is also especially sad to see Sudan and Ethiopia, two brotherly countries with deep historical, cultural, and people-to-people ties, reaching such a dangerous moment. The peoples of both nations have lived side by side for generations, sharing borders, trade, migration, and regional aspirations. A confrontation between them would not produce winners; it would only deepen suffering across the region.       

The risks are even greater because regional and international actors may become involved directly or indirectly through support for rival factions and proxies. Countries such as United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Eritrea, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and even larger global powers with strategic interests in the Red Sea and the Horn could find themselves drawn into the crisis in one form or another. The Horn of Africa has increasingly become an arena for geopolitical competition, and any Ethiopia-Sudan confrontation risks creating a wider proxy dynamic that would be extremely difficult to contain.

The current moment demands restraint, not bravado. It demands diplomacy, not military theater. And it demands that both governments place the region’s stability above short-term political messaging.

If Ethiopia and Sudan choose escalation, the cost will be paid in civilian lives, broken economies, displaced families, and a more fractured Horn of Africa. If they choose restraint, dialogue, and regional responsibility, there is still a chance to keep a dangerous dispute from becoming another regional catastrophe.