With more than 400,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, businesses are coping with lost revenue and disrupted supply chains as factory shutdowns and quarantine measures spread across the globe, restricting movement and business activity. This pandemic is sending ripples around the world. As the world grapples with the coronavirus, the economic impact is mounting – with the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors having a conference call on 23 March to discuss how to address the emergency.
The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva issued a statement following the call, in which she outlined the outlook for global growth: “For 2020 it is negative – a recession at least as bad as during the global financial crisis or worse.” But she added: “We expect recovery in 2021. To get there, it is paramount to prioritize containment and strengthen health systems – everywhere.”
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned on 23 March that the shock from the virus is already bigger than the global financial crisis. OECD secretary general Angel Gurria said many countries would fall into recession and countries would be dealing with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic for years to come. “Even if you don’t get a worldwide recession, you’re going to get either no growth or negative growth in many of the economies of the world, including some of the larger ones, and therefore you’re going to get not only low growth this year, but also it’s going to take longer to pick up in the in the future”, he stated. This statement comes after the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the UN trade agency, warned of a slowdown of global growth to under 2% this year, effectively wiping $1 trillion off the value of the world economy.
Economic slump is wildly predicted for China. China is the world’s second-largest economy and leading trading nation, so economic fallout from this former COVID-19 epicentre will be critical to watch. Economists polled by Reuters on March 3-5 said the outbreak likely halved China’s economic growth in the current quarter compared with the previous three months.
The poll of more than 40 economists, based both in and outside mainland China, forecast growth to fall to a median of 3.5% this quarter from 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019, a full percentage point lower than predicted in a February 14 poll. “If you’re in a city which has been basically closed down or put under virtual house arrest, you’re not going to go out to the streets, you can’t go to the cinema, the restaurants…with all those sorts of things, economic activity will be substantially negatively affected,” said Rob Carnell, head of Asia-Pacific research at ING.
According to Rob Carnell, the Chinese economy is likely to be hit further by reduced global demand for its products due to the effect of the outbreak on economies around the world. Data released on 16 March showed China’s factory production plunged at the sharpest pace in three decades in the first two months of the year, something which could mean an even greater economic slowdown than predicted in that poll. “Judging by the data, the shock to China’s economic activity from the coronavirus epidemic is greater than the (2008) global financial crisis. These data suggest a small contraction in the first-quarter economy is a high probability event. Government policies would need to be focused on preventing large-scale bankruptcies and unemployment” said Zhang Yi, Chief economist at Zhonghai Shengrong Capital Management.
In a frantic bid to address the impact, United States Senate passes historic $2 trillion rescue package. So far, more than 3 million Americans filed unemployment claims last week. UK to pay up to 80% of employee wages for those unable to work due to the pandemic. The European Central Bank to launch €750 billion stimulus program, following US Federal Reserve move to cut interest rates to nearly zero. The coronavirus and the efforts underway to control its effects are literally bringing much of the world to a standstill. That standstill entails tremendous risks. What the coronavirus has not done, however, is to put in train a process of deglobalization. This has already happened earlier, in the reaction to the 2008 global financial crisis and what came in its wake.
The pandemic of COVID-19 is the third great shock of this still relatively new century. But COVID-19, the contagion which is so widespread largely because of human hyper-interconnectivity on a regional and global scale, is dramatically accelerating this process. Borders, on land, at sea and in the air, are staging a comeback, sometimes unilaterally, even in the EU. The COVID-19 crisis has become the third great shock of the century, after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the process unleashed by the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, which triggered economic and financial contagion.
To combat the economic fallout, the United States Federal Reserve on 15 March cut its key interest rate to near zero. But the move, coordinated with central banks in Japan, Australia and New Zealand in a joint-effort not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, failed to shore up global investor sentiment, with oil prices dipping below $30 a barrel on 16 March, and a 9% slump in share values when Wall Street opened.
China is the world’s biggest oil importer. With coronavirus hitting manufacturing and travel, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted the first drop in global oil demand in a decade. On 9 March, oil prices lost as much as a third of their value – the biggest daily rout since the 1991 Gulf War, as Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled they would hike output in a market already awash with crude, after their three-year supply pact collapsed. Anyone hoping cryptocurrencies might prove a safe haven was disappointed. Bitcoin lost more than 30% of its value in the five days to 12 March, Reuters reported, outpacing losses for stocks and oil. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) also took action, launching on 18 March a €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that is expected to last until the end of this year.
On 20 March, the UK announced radical fiscal spending measures to counter the economic impact of a worsening crisis. The government said it would pay up to 80% of the wages of employees across the country unable to work, as most businesses shut their doors to help fight the spread of coronavirus. Earlier in the month, the Danish government announced it would help private companies struggling to manage the fallout from the pandemic by covering 75% of employees’ salaries, if firms agreed not to cut staff.
Meanwhile, the United States Senate on 25 March approved an unprecedented $2 trillion stimulus plan, including direct payouts to millions of Americans. The House of Representatives is expected to pass the rescue package on Friday. The bipartisan deal was announced as the Labor Department released statistics showing more than 3 million people last week filed for unemployment benefits in the US – the most ever in a week.
On 5 March – before the United States travel ban was announced – the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predictied the COVID-19 outbreak could cost airlines $113 billion in lost revenue as fewer people take flights. “The industry remains very fragile,” Brian Pearce, the IATA’s chief economist, told the Associated Press. “There are lots of airlines that have got relatively narrow profit margins and lots of debt and this could send some into a very difficult situation.”
On March 16, British Airways said it would cut flying capacity by at least 75% in April and May. Other UK airlines, including Virgin Atlantic and easyJet also announced drastic cuts. The travel and tourism industries were hit early on by economic disruption from the outbreak. Besides the impact on airlines, the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) forecast that Japan could lose $1.29 billion of tourism revenue in the first quarter due to the drop in Chinese travellers, while Thailand could lose $1.15 billion.
To be continued ……
The Coronavirus And Globalization
Online delivery
ETTA Solutions PLC (ETTA) assigned thousands of motor bikes to expand its Z Mall delivery service around the city. Z Mall was introduced eight months ago and facilitates a modern app to connect customers with service or product suppliers. Currently the platform formed under ETTA connects some food chains and supermarkets like Pizza Hut and Shoa and Abadir Supermarkets with their customers.
Using the app customers can order any service from the providers and the delivery will be delivered by motor bikes. During these tough times online delivery is the best way to avoid contact with customers at stores and will help fight the virus by helping you to stay at home with convenience. Temesgen Geberehiwot, Managing Director and Founder of ETTA, talked to Capital about the activities of Z Mall. Excerpts;
Capital: What is the activity of z mall? Please elaborate the app of zmall?
Temesgen Geberehiwot: ZMall is an e commerce and delivery platform. We offer a wide range of merchants through our service, including supermarkets like Shoa Supermarket, Bambis supermarket , Fresh Corner and Abadir Supermarket, restaurants such as Pizza Hut, Savor, Mama’s kitchen and Village and beverage products such as BGI’s Products, Dieago’s Product and beauty supplies such as Jordan Beauty Supply and many more. All delivered to our customers in about 30 minutes. The app is called ZMall that’s available for iOS and Android as well as a website called ZMallShop.com to accommodate our wide range of customers. We accept any vendors as well.
We call our app Ethiopia’s Online Marketplace because very soon we will have online stores for all of your favorite services and products from throughout Ethiopia, which will be easily delivered directly to your home. Convenience and safety are the two key selling points of our service.
ZMall is a product of ETTA Solutions PLC, which is a tech company founded by me and my partner Ambaye Michael Tesfay launched in 2016. We have thus far independently financed and managed this company while also creating other services such as ETTA Taxi, Shekla Musicand our fast growing Enterprise resource planning system (ERP).
But we are now focusing a majority of our effort on growing ZMall right now because it is an essential service at such an uncertain time. We want to be able to flatten the curve by helping people stay home and taking care of all their shopping needs.
Capital: When did you commence your operation?
Temesgen Geberehiwot: We started our operation about 8 months ago, with our first partner Pizza Hut’s food being our main delivery. We have slowly expanded since then and find ourselves with about 20 current vendors, with another 50 or so vendors who will be coming from aboard in the next few weeks. We are targeting to have over 700 vendors on our platform by the end of 2020.
Capital: How many motor bicycles do you operate now and what makes your operation unique?
Temesgen Geberehiwot: We currently have 50 motorbikes in service, but we have a very aggressive growth plan for our fleet. Our current model was simply one in which the company own the motorcycles and hire drivers to work within our system, but we are in the process of shifting towards a model that empowers youth by partnering up with local banks and finance institutions and offering young men and women all around Addis the chance to finance a brand new motorbike for themselves, while being giving them guaranteed income as a ZMall driver. Even at current levels, our drivers are getting good income and we also offer work based incentive. We want to motivate our youth to work hard and make money in our service and our intended target is 7800 new jobs created by the end of 2020.
One of the core beliefs of our company is that we can use technology as a tool to uplift our community and help people provide financial stability for themselves and their families. We are certain that the Ethiopian youth are ready to embrace the digital economy.
Capital: Is your service is affordable for ordinary citizen?
Temesgen Geberehiwot: We are always working hard towards making our service affordable to any and every citizen.
For example, in association with our partners at Jupiter Hotel, we have made available the 150 birr lunch special available anywhere in Addis. This means a quality meal produced by the high class facilities at Jupiter Hotel, delivered anywhere in Addis Ababa for only 150 birr (the price includes delivery fee). Both Jupiter and ZMall slashed all of our profits and are operating at cost on this service because we are not doing it to make money, rather than to encourage people to stay at home. We will be doing several other specials like this so that people from all income brackets can find what they are looking for on ZMall.
Capital: How many customers/service providers do you have now?
Temesgen Geberehiwot: We currently have about 15 thousand plus active clients and we have processed more than 45 thousand deliveries thus far.
Capital: How is the growing interest of service providers?
Temesgen Geberehiwot: Once service providers hear of the impact that ZMall has on their service, they are instantly hooked. And it’s not just the additional income we offer, but also the seamless technology we offer them to handle their orders. We give them their own app to manage their store that conveniently lets them update and manage their stores. We also offer our ERP services to quite a few of our vendors, so what we are selling them is the full convenience package; which is additional volume for your service and an easier way to manage it.
Capital: As you know the covid 19 virus forced the public to stay at home; at the same time consumers should have to go to shop but the government recommends to stay at home. How do you serve the public during this difficult times?
Temesgen Geberehiwot: This is where we believe our service should step up and serve our community. Social distancing and staying home is a very important thing at this stage of the pandemic so we want people to use our service as an alternative from going to the store or market, which is a daily chore for many families around the city.
Our staff takes all necessary safety precautions, because our customers’ safety is our top priority. We have a very rigid twice daily washing and sanitizing routine that all of our delivery people and facilities go through at our headquarters. We give our drivers updated trainings every day about COVID 19 and how to protect themselves and our customers. We also require our drivers and service providers to wear a mask and glove when handling your order. We also update our customers regularly on what further steps we are taking to protect them from COVID 19. We know how important a service like ours can be at this point and we are very serious in handling our demand.
Capital: What is your observation about the demand to use your app in relation with the virus outbreak?
Temesgen Geberehiwot: We have seen a large jump in demand for our service in the past few weeks and we understand where that is coming from. We have been preparing our internal staff and team to scale up for quite some time now as we had planned to prepare to aggressively expand our services since before this pandemic even came around. And now that it’s here, we are preparing our team to be able to handle whatever amount of workload is brought to us. We are also trying to work with the government in helping mobilise resources to different places.
Capital: What is your recommendation for the public and service providers during these hard times?
Temesgen Geberehiwot: Without being biased, my recommendation for service providers for now would be to temporarily shut down all their physical stores and switch to online selling of their products. Service providers still have the pressure of conducting service and paying employees on their shoulders, and by easily shifting to a model in which you are using a seamless online store that offers cashless transactions with Dashen Bank’s Amole app would be the way to go as our country moves towards stronger precautions against COVID 19.
Muscles are paradoxical energy cells
By Elias Abichacra (Phd)
Muscles, as the main actors of movement, can be radically transformed by a well programmed training. When we look at the records of some sport events, we can closely attach them to the progress of scientific research. Sport Science started to emerge after the Mexico Olympic Games when the altitude problem caused unprecedented turmoil in the sports family. From that time on, Sport benefited from systematic research that helped it progress by great leaps. At the same time, Sport business has influenced the progress of contemporary sport in a good as well as in a bad way.
Our muscles can store energy in different ways. They produce force using three types of biological fuel that they extract from the different meals a person takes daily. Before the advent of Sport Science, many thought that meat/protein was the essential and unique fuel used by the muscle. Thanks to scientific research, it was finally understood that fuel came from rapidly or slowly assimilated sugar. Both of these sugars classified as Carbohydrates play an essential role to furnish energy to the muscle when it is needed.
Muscles store energy in three different ways. There is fuel which is immediately available but in scanty amount and is called ATP. It can help produce an extremely high intensity exercise for only 7 seconds. The second stored energy called Glycogen is stocked in the muscle and the liver and can produce a lesser intense exercise (85 % of ATP) and last at full intensity for 45 seconds. The third stocked energy is fat which constitutes the most important energy reserve. It is concentrated at different parts of the body and can be utilized for hours without interruption. It is easy to observe that the lesser the stock of fuel, the higher the intensity of the exercise and on the opposite side, the greater the quantity of fuel available, the lesser the force produced.
Our muscles harbor two paradoxes. Cars with hybrid motors produce the same type of work notwithstanding the type of fuel they use. Muscles are completely different than motors. They use three types of fuel which are different by the quantity that is available, the amount of energy each type of fuel can produce and the duration of the stocked fuel.
The first paradox shows us that a specific type of exercise uses a specific type of fuel. Explosive exercises that have a short duration use exclusively the ATP fuel. Sprinters, Jumpers and Throwers depend narrowly on this rare but high energy productive fuel. Exercises with a mix of high intensity efforts combined with actions that must be repeated for quite a long time depend in their majority on Glycogen, but to a lesser extent also on fat as well as ATP. Most of the Ball games, Combat sports, Mid distance athletics races etc… use preferably Glycogen. Exercises that last for a long period of time and with low intensity use at the beginning Glycogen but as the exercise continues-over 45 minutes- fat comes to the rescue of the muscle to continue the effort. Long distance running, jogging, cycling are the physical activities that use fat.
The second paradox is the reaction of the muscle to repeated exercise especially when it is scientifically designed. If you open your mobile phone and look at the voltage of the battery, it shows a fixed number-most of the time 3.5 volts. Depending how you use your phone, you can wipe out the stocked energy more or less quickly. When you recharge your phone, you can only recharge up to the level indicated on the battery. This is not what happens to your muscle. Repeating exercises of the same type and by respecting the time to recharge the muscle, you finish by depleting all the stock of fuel. Then here is where the magic works. Instead of recharging the fuel to the initial level from which you started, you shall increase the stock of energy available for the next training session. The next time you practice you must train at a higher level because the stocked energy fuel is more than when you began training. This process continues as long as you train using that particular fuel as well as if you respect the time to refuel totally. This process of recharging by surpassing the initial stock level is called Hyper Compensation or Natural Doping. A well designed training program can increase the potential of any athlete dramatically. Unfortunately this process continues as long as you continue practicing methodically. As soon as you stop your training, the fuel stock recession begins. After sometime a person can return to the level he/she had when he/she started! FITNESS IS NEVER PERMANENT, IT MUST BE MAINTAINED RELENTESSLY! A person must always continue training in order to maintain the level of performance but must adapt his/her practice to his/her evolving physical status. But nobody can maintain his/her fitness level at the top forever. We mustn’t forget that the cells of our body progressively get older and become less effective. This is the main reason that pushes former top level athletes finally retire one day. We can’t stay young forever and the rules of Biology are implacable.
Performance depends on three equal pillars that are 1. A scientifically designed training program 2. A correctly balanced diet and lastly 3. A sufficient repairing rest that includes relaxed daily life after training as well as a good sleep. Giving importance to one or two of these pillars at the detriment of the other(s) can provoke what specialists call the Overtraining Syndrome. This can happen for example if you train very hard and don’t replace the energy you burnt by eating less than recommended. On the other hand, if you train hard and eat correctly but if you sleep less than necessary, you are prone to chronic fatigue which comes insidiously. Overtraining has many visible signs like flu that can stay for weeks even months, declining appetite, altering humor, insomnia, irritability etc…
Remember Health is Wealth
You can contact the writer on this e-mail
address: elias.abichacra@yahoo.com
AFRICAN ARTISTS RAISE AWARENESS
“It could be your momma, it could be your pappa, your brother or your sister, let’s stand together to fight this deadly disease.” Lyrics from Liberia’s President George Weah COVID19 song.
The loss of 86 year old Cameroonian music legend, Manu Dibango, was a wake up call for those on the continent and in the arts community who may have doubted the reality or reach of COVID19 taking lives every minute across the world. Manu’s career survived over five decades and three generations with millions who knew the iconic Soul Makossa hook. He will rest in peace assured that his vibrant sax compositions and noteworthy contributions will remain an integral part of music history.
Understanding the power and impact of music, African artists on the continent have taken to studios to record musical messages educating the public, in the hopes that lives will be spared in the Motherland from coronavirus. Africa cannot manage the levels of outbreak taking place in Europe and the USA, with over 1 million afflicted to date. That said, songs about social distancing, identifying symptoms, washing hands, stay and work from home and other important messages are springing up all over the continent. Ugandan artist and political activist Bobi Wine starts his song with caution, “The bad news is that everyone is a potential victim, but the good news is that everyone is a potential solution.” In collaboration with vocalist Nubian Li, Wine wrote the song “Coronavirus Alert”. The message is simple and positive, “Sensitive the masses to sanitize. Keep a social distance to quarantine. The coronavirus is sweeping over mankind. Everybody must be alert! It’s a global pandemic we can never take for granted.”
While in West Africa, Liberia’s President George Weah, brings his country’s experience with the Ebola epidemic in 2014 and 2015 to the mic. His firm musical warning that the virus could cause their loved ones to perish chants, “It could be your momma, it could be your pappa, your brother or your sister, let’s stand together to fight this deadly disease.” In South Africa, hard hit by the virus with over 1,000 diagnosed, the Ndlovu Youth Choir is making waves as they dismantle myths that may cause further dissemination of the disease. The choir director Ralf Schmitt states, “We are from a community in rural Limpopo province that has a high prevalence of HIV and TB. COVID-19 could have a devastating effect on our community and because of this, we decided to make a video to dispel myths about the virus and encourage basic prevention.” The choir’s message is simply, “Don’t panic, we’ve got this.”
Visual artists are also doing their part as seen in Kenya. Kiberia is a massive informal settlement just outside Nairobi and not new to graffiti and street art. However with keen concern to protect the only homes known to thousands dwelling in this slum, education on how to protect the community is graphically expressed in Swahili slang. A group of five artists from Uweza Art gallery took the initiative to raise awareness with 25 year old artist Josphat Ndemo telling CGTN Africa, “We decided as artists to go around to write murals, to spread the message of the coronavirus. We wanted to emphasize the common enemy of the virus, that people should be aware of it, they should not take this virus for granted, they should be serious.” However I was most moved by the works of RBS CREW, a collective of Senegalese graffiti artists using their paint spray cans to create public awareness. According to Reuters, “Black and yellow block letters spell out the message “TOGETHER AGAINST COVID19…A BIG THANK YOU TO THE CAREGIVERS…next to the government’s health hotline on the high school wall.” Artist Sergine Masour Fall, the 33 year old lead of the collective, known as “Mad Zoo” said, “As Senegalese we have a duty, a responsibility to raise awareness….the majority of the population is illiterate, as artists we can communicate through visuals.”
In my sefer in Kazanches we have opted to give out crayons to the children in our neighborhood who are clearly bored and probably confused if not scared by the sudden change of social norms. It may not be much, but who really knows what to do, as the natural response from Ethiopian artists would be to organize a group show, maybe have a talk or two and raise funds for the good cause. This is not an option now. So maybe its best artists continue to do their part, posting on social media, staying in the studio and when this awful non-discriminatory plague like pandemic is defeated, we will have a burst of creative energy and expression that ushers in the next phase of the new normal in Ethiopia, on the continent and in the world. Be safe, stay home and keep washing hands.
Dr. Desta Meghoo is a Jamaican born
Creative Consultant, Curator and cultural promoter based in Ethiopia since 2005. She also serves as Liaison to the AU for the Ghana based, Diaspora African Forum.
