Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has been significantly impacted by the ongoing coronavirus outbreak and is forecast to fall sharply from 2.4% in 2019 to -2.1 to -5.1% in 2020, the first recession in the region over the past 25 years, according to the latest Africa’s Pulse, the World Bank’s twice-yearly economic update for the region.
“The COVID-19 pandemic is testing the limits of societies and economies across the world, and African countries are likely to be hit particularly hard,” said Hafez Ghanem, World Bank Vice President for Africa. “We are rallying all possible resources to help countries meet people’s immediate health and survival needs while also safeguarding livelihoods and jobs in the longer term – including calling for a standstill on official bilateral debt service payments which would free up funds for strengthening health systems to deal with COVID 19 and save lives, social safety nets to save livelihoods and help workers who lose jobs, support to small and medium enterprises, and food security.”
The Pulse authors recommend that African policymakers focus on saving lives and protecting livelihoods by focusing on strengthening health systems and taking quick actions to minimize disruptions in food supply chains. They also recommend implementing social protection programs, including cash transfers, food distribution and fee waivers, to support citizens, especially those working in the informal sector.
The analysis shows that COVID-19 will cost the region between $37 billion and $79 billion in output losses for 2020 due to a combination of effects. They include trade and value chain disruption, which impacts commodity exporters and countries with strong value chain participation; reduced foreign financing flows from remittances, tourism, foreign direct investment, foreign aid, combined with capital flight; and through direct impacts on health systems, and disruptions caused by containment measures and the public response.
While most countries in the region have been affected to different degrees by the pandemic, real gross domestic product growth is projected to fall sharply particularly in the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa- as a result of persistently weak growth and investment. In general, oil exporting-countries will also be hard-hit; while growth is also expected to weaken substantially in the two fastest growing areas-the West African Economic and Monetary Union and the East African Community-due to weak external demand, disruptions to supply chains and domestic production. The region’s tourism sector is expected to contract sharply due to severe disruption to travel.
The COVID-19 crisis also has the potential to spark a food security crisis in Africa, with agricultural production potentially contracting between 2.6% in an optimistic scenario and up to 7% if there are trade blockages. Food imports would decline substantially (as much as 25% or as little as 13%) due to a combination of higher transaction costs and reduced domestic demand.
Several African countries have reacted quickly and decisively to curb the potential influx and spread of the coronavirus, very much in line with international guidelines. However, the report points out several factors that pose challenges to the containment and mitigation measures, in particular the large and densely populated urban informal settlements, poor access to safe water and sanitation facilities, and fragile health systems. Ultimately, the magnitude of the impact will depend on the public’s reaction within respective countries, the spread of the disease, and the policy response. And these factors together could lead to reduced labor market participation, capital underutilization, lower human capital accumulation, and long-term productivity effects.
“In addition to containment measures, we have seen that in responding to COVID-19, countries are opting for a combination of emergency fiscal and monetary policy actions with many central banks in the region taking important actions like cutting interest rates and providing extraordinary liquidity assistance,” said Albert Zeufack, Chief Economist for Africa at the World Bank. “However, it is important to ensure that fiscal policy builds in space for social protection interventions, especially targeting workers in the informal sector, and sows the seed for future resilience of our economies.”
The authors emphasize the need for a customized policy response to reflect the structure of African economies (especially the large informal sector) and the peculiar constraints policymakers currently face, particularly the deteriorating fiscal positions and heightened public debt vulnerabilities, and the overall low operational capacity to respond.
“The immediate measures are important but there is no doubt there will be need for some sort of debt relief from bilateral creditors to secure the resources urgently needed to fight COVID-19 and to help manage or maintain macroeconomic stability in the region,” said Cesar Calderon, Lead Economist and Lead author of the report.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, economic circumstances within countries and regions are fluid and change on a day-by-day basis. The macroeconomic analysis in the report is based on data available by the first quarter of March 2020.
The World Bank Group is taking broad, fast action to help developing countries strengthen their pandemic response, increase disease surveillance, improve public health interventions, and help the private sector continue to operate and sustain jobs. It is deploying up to $160 billion in financial support over the next 15 months to help countries protect the poor and vulnerable, support businesses, and bolster economic recovery.
COVID-19 drives Sub-Saharan Africa toward first recession in 25 years
Ethiopia ban corpse of those who died of COVID-19
554 people who were quarantined released after being tested negative
Airline operators are banned to transport a corpse which is known to have acquired coronavirus into the country aiming to prevent the virus transmission.
In a letter the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI) wrote to Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority, the institute disclosed that the case of COVID 19 and its transmission manners is new and still under study.
The letter signed by Aschalew Abayneh, Deputy Director of EPHI, added that any contact with the infected body is highly contagious and the virus will be transmitted to others.
“For the sake of protecting the society from COVID 19 outbreak the Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority should inform airline operators not to transport coronavirus infected corpse to the country,” the letter states.
Tamiru Tadesse, EPHI’s COVID Response Team Leader at Ethiopian Airports Enterprise, told Capital that usually the institute is undertaking body test for any transmitted diseases at the airport.
“At this time of the pandemic we are looking the matter separately since we have to control the virus,” he said.
He said that as per the letter the country will never receive COVID 19 infected corpse.
He expressed his expectation from the authority to address the information to all the operators that fly to the country.
“So far there were not any contaminated corpse arrived and it will never,” he added.
In Ethiopia most of the effected individuals are those who returned to the country from different corner of the world.
As of March 23 the government applied forced quarantine for travelers who come from abroad.
The virus has infected over 1.6 million people in the world and tens of thousands died because of the virus. Several media reports stated that several Ethiopia diaspora members also lost their life because of the virus.
The influence of coronavirus has affected several activities in the world, while the aviation industry particularly public transport is suspended in most of the destinations in the world and airline operators has also suspended their service fully or some of them only operates in a very limited level of their capacity.
The cargo service is ongoing meanwhile the effect of the virus limited the economic activity in the world.
In related development Minister of Health Lia Tadesse said 554 people who were quarantined for 14 days in different parts of Addis Ababa were released after all of them tested negative for the deadly coronavirus.
The government of Ethiopia introduced forced quarantined measures against passengers arriving in Addis Ababa from any part of the world in a bid to stem the spread of COVID-19.
The passengers were quarantined in selected hotels with their own expenses and those who could not cover their hotel accommodations were quarantined on university grounds and schools.
The minister called on the public to refrain from any discrimination against those passengers who were quarantined upon arrival for health safety purposes.
According to the minister, currently, there are 2036 people who are still in quarantine centers where their health status is followed by health professionals.
The minister said the quarantine activities which are being done upon the recommendations of the World Health Organization were fruitful.
25 million jobs at risk with airline shutdown
The International Air Transport Association has released new analysis showing that some 25 million jobs are at risk of disappearing with plummeting demand for air travel amid the COVID-19 crisis.
Globally, the livelihoods of some 65.5 million people are dependent on the aviation industry, including sectors such as travel and tourism. Among these are 2.7 million airlines jobs. In a scenario of severe travel restrictions lasting for three months, IATA research calculates that 25 million jobs in aviation and related sectors are endangered across the world. These are 11.2 million jobs in Asia-Pacific, 5.6 million jobs in Europe, 2.9 million jobs in Latin America, 2 million jobs in North America, 2 million jobs in Africa, and 0.9 million jobs in the Middle East.
In the same scenario, airlines are expected to see full year passenger revenues fall by $252 billion (-44%) in 2020 compared to 2019. The second quarter is the most critical with demand falling 70% at its worst point, and airlines burning through $61 billion in cash.
Airlines are calling on governments to provide immediate financial aid to help airlines to remain viable businesses able to lead the recovery when the pandemic is contained. Specifically, IATA calls for direct financial support, loans, loan guarantees and support for the corporate bond market, and tax relief.
“There are no words to adequately describe the devastating impact of COVID-19 on the airline industry. And the economic pain will be shared by 25 million people who work in jobs dependent upon airlines. Airlines must be viable businesses so that they can lead the recovery when the pandemic is contained. A lifeline to the airlines now is critical,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
Alongside vital financial relief, the industry will also need careful planning and coordination to ensure that airlines are ready when the pandemic is contained.
“We have never shuttered the industry on this scale before. Consequently, we have no experience in starting it up. It will be complicated. At the practical level, we will need contingencies for licenses and certifications that have expired. We will have to adapt operations and processes to avoid reinfections via imported cases. And we must find a predictable and efficient approach to managing travel restrictions which need to be lifted before we can get back to work. These are just some of the major tasks that are ahead of us. And to be successful, industry and government must be aligned and working together,” said de Juniac.
IATA is scoping a comprehensive approach to re-booting the industry when governments and public health authorities allow. A multi-stakeholder approach will be essential. One initial step is a series of virtual meetings-or summits-on a regional basis, bringing together governments and industry stakeholders.
The Corona crisis is a media crisis
Our society is breaking down. People are scared of seeing each other. There is no more wedding, no more get together. Thousands business will end up bankrupt and many more will not reopen. Why?
To fight the Corona Virus!
Status on April 10, 2020: 65 cases with 2 recorded death.
For this fight, the Ethiopian Federal and regional governments is willing to effectively suspend the Constitution, place most of the country under house arrest, trash the country’s meager economy, and destroy the social contract built over centuries.
The same thing is happening in the US. In an interview about the US economy, one businessman correctly observed, “by May [2020] the economic damage will be so severe, it will cause more harm to families, abused children, and spouses, those who will die untreated because we only provide care for Covid-19. The number of individuals permanently discharged from jobs (never to return) is staggering and will get worse by the hour.” Again in the US supply chains have been disrupted, business contracts arbitrarily breached, rents left unpaid, unemployment lines increased by millions, and 50% of U.S. consumers are maxed out on their credit cards. The economic and personal damage is not only severe but probably irreparable.
What if all the hysteria-driven orders have actually made the virus outbreak even worse? More scientists are coming forward to argue for the “Sweden model” of moderation rather than lockdown.
Yes, schools and kindergartens still operate normally in Sweden; shops and pubs are open, the churches did not chase away their worshippers, and people are free to roam in the parks and bountiful forests. Just compare Sweden with its big neighbor wrote Israel Shamir, a journalist: Swedes now spend 43% more time in the parks than usual, while in Germany their people spend 50% less time than usual.
Shamir continues, that the Germans are subject to fines: it is 500 Euro if you visit your relatives or friends; the same if three or more persons get together; the same if you stand at six feet distance or less from another person; 75 Euro if you are found without an authorisation permit. Swedes need no permits and are free to visit and socialise.
We must ask ourselves, because such drastic approach was not adopted during earlier epidemics with far more deadly viruses, why now?
John P. A. Ioannidis, a Stanford University Medical School professor of medicine and epidemiology, argued (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ ) we are making decisions without reasonable data, so it is impossible to make claims about any fatality rate, actual or future. COVID-19 is the weakest of the seven serious flus and diseases (West Nile, SARS, Bird flu, Swine flu, Ebola, and Zika) we have had since 2002. So far, as mentioned above, it is even less deadly – by one-half – than the ordinary seasonal flu.
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, another Stanford University professor of medicine, concurs when he says, as quoted in The Wall Street Journal, (https://www.lewrockwell.com/political-theatre/questioning-conventional-wisdom-in-the-covid-19-crisis-youtube/) “An epidemic seed on January 1st implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23 … there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. … that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%.” He laments the fact that there have been no studies done to accurately assess the actual Measured Case Fatality Rate.
So, with the federal government and regional states ordered lockdowns, are we any safer from the virus? Perhaps in very small groups. The more one investigates with an open mind, the less confidence one has in our government officials. Sweden could be an exception (www.thecommentator.com/article/7649/prepare_for_the_mother_of_all_s_t_storms_if_sweden_pulls_this_off?fbclid=IwAR0I9p0rtxLesD7Q_7r9vhIRJ6YIheqcIWFsxMjs3IZipwMxCT0zEQPHvAw#.XogaZvbtILd.facebook with its reliance upon two rules: Groups at risk are protected and those people with flu symptoms stay at home. Swedish health authorities think that it is better to track individual cases within the country than to shut everything down. As they put it, “Despite the popular perception, our best hope against the pandemic is continued trade and cooperation across borders. Travel bans, the government wisely states, are mostly “political placebo.”
In New York, although the death rate is still high, the latest report shows that referrals of patients to ICUs were down. Incubations were down. And the discharge rate for patients from hospitals was holding steady.
Patrick Buchanan, the American commentator wrote ‘the thousands of ventilators Gov. Andrew Cuomo had been crying out for are, apparently, not immediately needed. The U.S. Navy hospital ship Comfort moored on the Hudson with a capacity of 1,000 beds remains largely empty. So, too, are the thousands of beds in Manhattan’s Javits Center, which has been converted into an emergency hospital.
Suddenly predictions of 1 million to 2 million U.S. deaths are no longer heard. Last week’s projection from the White House briefing room of 100,000 to 240,000 dead has been revised, sharply downward.
None of the above is to say or suggest that you should treat this virus, or whatever is causing the deaths and illnesses, lightly. Avoid direct exposure as much as possible. But we cannot go through life avoiding potential infection – it is not practical; avoiding fear and stress are perhaps the most important.
Yet, if we were to believe the constant alarms and fear spewed out by the mainstream media, then we would think – as most people have been led to believe – that huge numbers of people all over the World are dying from the COVID-19 disease. That is simply not true (https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think)
Dear readers,
Governments that are telling us they are going to save us from a virus are the same governments that are going to destroy our way of life. It looks like a time has come when we are told where we may go, what we are allowed to do, what we may buy, how long we may remain at home. Control over the population is almost complete by eliminating our culture, religion, and independent views and thought, in order to bring about a new order, or to extend power. Unfortunately, once any country’s people succumb to obedience, all that is left is slavery.
